I am not sure about you, but I have had the NCAA Tournament theme music playing on a loop in my head for days. The calendar may now say April, but we have one more weekend of March business to finish up with. MSU will be playing it's 10th total Final Four this weekend, 8 of which were coached by Tom Izzo. Will coach finally earn his 2nd title and the 3rd for MSU? Let's take a look at some numbers to see who might be celebrating when One Shining Moment is playing amidst a fine rain of confetti on Monday night.
The first thing that we can do is to look at the Vegas line and projected Vegas lines to see how the overall probabilities shake out, MSU is currently a 2.5-point favorite vs. Texas Tech. That is a little higher than Kenpom is projecting (1.3) and it gives MSU a 60% chance to advance. On the other side of the bracket, Virginia is a 5.5-point favorite over Auburn, which is a bit lower than Kenpom would project (6.3). That corresponds to a 71% chance that the Hoos advance.
Going beyond that, I can still use Kenpom data to project the Final. MSU currently projects to be a 2-point underdog to Virginia (43% chance to win), and that match-up has about the same odds (42%) of coming to pass. Add this all up (including the other potential match-ups) and the Final Four odds matrix looks like this:
Virginia's Kenpom numbers are through the roof, and they clearly have the easier draw in the National Semifinal round, so it should come as no surprise that they have the best odds to win the title at 42%. MSU is the clear #2 team at 30%. But, if that final match-up does come to pass, it will be interesting to see what the Vegas Line will be. I would not be shocked to see that game as a push or even MSU favored. Much like Duke was MSU's apparent kypronite, MSU is Virginia's. MSU slayed their dragon. Would UVA be able to do the same?
Beyond just the overall probabilities, I thought that I would take a deeper look at the more specific team stats for each of the Final Four participants. I thought a lot about the best way to visualize this data, and here is what I came up with. In general I am using the "Four Factors" approach, which generally looks at these four areas on both offense and defense:
-Effective FG%
-Rebounding
-Turn-over percentage
-Free throw rate
Of those four factors, two of them relate to shooting the basketball (eFG% and FT rate) while the other two factors (rebounding and TOs) impact the total number of opportunities to shoot the basketball (i.e. possessions). In my analysis, I separated these two categories of stats. In addition, I broke up the stats a bit more into 2PT%, 3PT%, FT% as well as blocks and steals. I pulled all of the data from the Kenpom website.
As for the actual visualization, I decided to make bar graphs comparing the 4 remaining teams in each statistical category. Instead of just plotting the raw data, however, I converted the data into percentile rankings based on the mean and standard deviation of the data from all Division 1 teams in 2019. For reference, the raw data is shown at the top of each bar. For example, MSU's 3PT% of 38.0% is in the 93rd percentile of all teams in 2019.
Finally, I should note that in all cases, I scaled the data such that a higher bar is positive. A higher shooting percentage is good on offense, while a low percentage is good on defense. Also, I define offense and defense strictly by which team has the ball. So, for blocked shots on offense, that is the rate at which the team in question gets their shot blocked, so a lower number is better.
With that said, here is the shooting data for all four remaining teams
![[IMG]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZjjJeMrpKEQ4rKV8l1FdZsl_otn4H7JepflLxMO7BDlcTxTamRBOj4f1uE4ZQCuCyyVd2Ea1aOzS2-QzoqtXunX1g-RlEb80dOXCcRaDF3GMeswrGra7AGOQguacVeRHBylm3R1VUl-E/s1600/2019+FF+shooting.jpg)
For an offensive point of view, MSU is on balance the best shooting team left in the tournament, the overall eFG% number confirms this. While Virginia does shoot a little better from 3 (and takes more of them), MSU's advantage from 2 over the other three teams is pretty clear. MSU also has an edge from the FT line, both from the point of view of getting there and then hitting once they do.
As for Texas Tech, while they are also a good shooting team, their numbers are all clearly a half step behind the other 3 teams. In particular, their 3pt% and rate are a bit low. As for this graph, the other notable stat that jumps out is Auburn's 3-pt profile. They take a lot of them, and they make a lot of them. That is pretty scary in a one-and-one situation.
On the defensive side, it is clear that three of these teams are very, very good defensively, while the 4th (Auburn) is below average. MSU, Virginia, and Texas Tech are all 99% percentile in eFG% defense, with Texas Tech having the slight edge and with MSU also being slightly better than UVA. The other notable stats here are that MSU does the best job of the four teams of running a team off the 3-point line, and both UVA and MSU are much better at limiting opponents FT attempts than Auburn or Texas Tech.
So, my take away from all this data is that MSU does appear to have an advantage on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, relative to the other three when it come down to pure shooting. MSU, UVA, and TTU all play great FG defense, but MSU looks to have a more significant advantage on offense. In general, if MSU can get as many shots up as their opponents this weekend, MSU should win, barring an anomalously hot or cold shooting effort by someone. But, this edge is pretty narrow.
The key question, then, is will MSU actually get more shots than their opponent? That is the subject of the second set of data:
![[IMG]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_azJZ4XgFTBxxsivGltJXqjud3GYT6PKxAXA3lCuMK9m_0_DPbJvDd-PkST_KHr_WIL4yv7VFs7dIakrr9mj6BGotGGmSaYVo-xuVBWh28KlsiZNNFAqP2zaLq7cmyNHCCEwWhdEaWEE/s1600/2019+FF+possession.jpg)
For MSU, here is where the game and Saturday and a potential National Title will likely either be won or lost. When it comes to possessions, MSU is just average when it comes to turnovers, but this is offset by being the best rebounding team left, especially on the offensive side. The match-up with Texas Tech will be the starkest contrast of these stats. TTU creates a lot of turn-over, but they don't rebound particularly well. MSU is the opposite. I expect MSU to rebound well on Saturday, but can they continue to limit turnovers? That will go a long way to determine if MSU will win.
If MSU were to face Virginia on Monday night, the turnover concern is not as high, but UVA is a better rebounding team, so that might cancel out. If MSU were to fave Auburn, they look pretty similar to Texas Tech from a possession standpoint. They create a lot of turn-overs, but MSU would be expected to have a HUGE edge of the offensive glass. MSU is the 94th percentile in offensive rebounding, while Auburn is in the 5th percentile in defensive rebounding.
As for other general observations: all four teams are in the 90th percentile or better for defensive shot blocking. Auburn is also really bad at getting their shots blocked when they have the ball. Finally, the last column in the possession charts is for assist rate. MSU is #1 in this stat nationally, but I don't think the data tells much of a story here.
I had just a few more comments and observations. There are two key intangibles that I think need to be at least mentioned. First, MSU is clearly the program that has the most experience with a Final Four. I think that is going to matter. While none of MSU's players have played in a Final Four, the staff knows how to handle the circus. I am not sure the other three teams do. This could matter, and it might just matter a lot. Second, when you play in a football stadium, the sight lines can be weird, and that could mess with outside shooting. In this situation, it seems logical that the team with the best 2pt% offense and defense would have the edge. That team, in both cases, is MSU.
Finally, this tournament and final four, if you think about it, has some odd parallels to the 2000 run to the National Title (and not just because Purdue lost in the Region Final). In 2000, MSU beat Iowa State in an epic Regional Final that in retrospect many considered to be the real National Title game. Once MSU got to the Final Four, we had to grind it out against a super elite defensive squad in Wisconsin. On Monday, MSU had to play a speedy SEC upstart that some thought would run MSU out of the gym. We all know how that played out. This does all sound familiar, though, right? While I expect Virginia to beat Auburn, something just makes me wonder if MSU is going to wind up playing (and beating) Auburn on Monday night.
Well, that is all I have for now. It is going to be a long 48 hr+ until tip off. Go Green and Enjoy.
The first thing that we can do is to look at the Vegas line and projected Vegas lines to see how the overall probabilities shake out, MSU is currently a 2.5-point favorite vs. Texas Tech. That is a little higher than Kenpom is projecting (1.3) and it gives MSU a 60% chance to advance. On the other side of the bracket, Virginia is a 5.5-point favorite over Auburn, which is a bit lower than Kenpom would project (6.3). That corresponds to a 71% chance that the Hoos advance.
Going beyond that, I can still use Kenpom data to project the Final. MSU currently projects to be a 2-point underdog to Virginia (43% chance to win), and that match-up has about the same odds (42%) of coming to pass. Add this all up (including the other potential match-ups) and the Final Four odds matrix looks like this:
Virginia's Kenpom numbers are through the roof, and they clearly have the easier draw in the National Semifinal round, so it should come as no surprise that they have the best odds to win the title at 42%. MSU is the clear #2 team at 30%. But, if that final match-up does come to pass, it will be interesting to see what the Vegas Line will be. I would not be shocked to see that game as a push or even MSU favored. Much like Duke was MSU's apparent kypronite, MSU is Virginia's. MSU slayed their dragon. Would UVA be able to do the same?
Beyond just the overall probabilities, I thought that I would take a deeper look at the more specific team stats for each of the Final Four participants. I thought a lot about the best way to visualize this data, and here is what I came up with. In general I am using the "Four Factors" approach, which generally looks at these four areas on both offense and defense:
-Effective FG%
-Rebounding
-Turn-over percentage
-Free throw rate
Of those four factors, two of them relate to shooting the basketball (eFG% and FT rate) while the other two factors (rebounding and TOs) impact the total number of opportunities to shoot the basketball (i.e. possessions). In my analysis, I separated these two categories of stats. In addition, I broke up the stats a bit more into 2PT%, 3PT%, FT% as well as blocks and steals. I pulled all of the data from the Kenpom website.
As for the actual visualization, I decided to make bar graphs comparing the 4 remaining teams in each statistical category. Instead of just plotting the raw data, however, I converted the data into percentile rankings based on the mean and standard deviation of the data from all Division 1 teams in 2019. For reference, the raw data is shown at the top of each bar. For example, MSU's 3PT% of 38.0% is in the 93rd percentile of all teams in 2019.
Finally, I should note that in all cases, I scaled the data such that a higher bar is positive. A higher shooting percentage is good on offense, while a low percentage is good on defense. Also, I define offense and defense strictly by which team has the ball. So, for blocked shots on offense, that is the rate at which the team in question gets their shot blocked, so a lower number is better.
With that said, here is the shooting data for all four remaining teams
For an offensive point of view, MSU is on balance the best shooting team left in the tournament, the overall eFG% number confirms this. While Virginia does shoot a little better from 3 (and takes more of them), MSU's advantage from 2 over the other three teams is pretty clear. MSU also has an edge from the FT line, both from the point of view of getting there and then hitting once they do.
As for Texas Tech, while they are also a good shooting team, their numbers are all clearly a half step behind the other 3 teams. In particular, their 3pt% and rate are a bit low. As for this graph, the other notable stat that jumps out is Auburn's 3-pt profile. They take a lot of them, and they make a lot of them. That is pretty scary in a one-and-one situation.
On the defensive side, it is clear that three of these teams are very, very good defensively, while the 4th (Auburn) is below average. MSU, Virginia, and Texas Tech are all 99% percentile in eFG% defense, with Texas Tech having the slight edge and with MSU also being slightly better than UVA. The other notable stats here are that MSU does the best job of the four teams of running a team off the 3-point line, and both UVA and MSU are much better at limiting opponents FT attempts than Auburn or Texas Tech.
So, my take away from all this data is that MSU does appear to have an advantage on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball, relative to the other three when it come down to pure shooting. MSU, UVA, and TTU all play great FG defense, but MSU looks to have a more significant advantage on offense. In general, if MSU can get as many shots up as their opponents this weekend, MSU should win, barring an anomalously hot or cold shooting effort by someone. But, this edge is pretty narrow.
The key question, then, is will MSU actually get more shots than their opponent? That is the subject of the second set of data:
For MSU, here is where the game and Saturday and a potential National Title will likely either be won or lost. When it comes to possessions, MSU is just average when it comes to turnovers, but this is offset by being the best rebounding team left, especially on the offensive side. The match-up with Texas Tech will be the starkest contrast of these stats. TTU creates a lot of turn-over, but they don't rebound particularly well. MSU is the opposite. I expect MSU to rebound well on Saturday, but can they continue to limit turnovers? That will go a long way to determine if MSU will win.
If MSU were to face Virginia on Monday night, the turnover concern is not as high, but UVA is a better rebounding team, so that might cancel out. If MSU were to fave Auburn, they look pretty similar to Texas Tech from a possession standpoint. They create a lot of turn-overs, but MSU would be expected to have a HUGE edge of the offensive glass. MSU is the 94th percentile in offensive rebounding, while Auburn is in the 5th percentile in defensive rebounding.
As for other general observations: all four teams are in the 90th percentile or better for defensive shot blocking. Auburn is also really bad at getting their shots blocked when they have the ball. Finally, the last column in the possession charts is for assist rate. MSU is #1 in this stat nationally, but I don't think the data tells much of a story here.
I had just a few more comments and observations. There are two key intangibles that I think need to be at least mentioned. First, MSU is clearly the program that has the most experience with a Final Four. I think that is going to matter. While none of MSU's players have played in a Final Four, the staff knows how to handle the circus. I am not sure the other three teams do. This could matter, and it might just matter a lot. Second, when you play in a football stadium, the sight lines can be weird, and that could mess with outside shooting. In this situation, it seems logical that the team with the best 2pt% offense and defense would have the edge. That team, in both cases, is MSU.
Finally, this tournament and final four, if you think about it, has some odd parallels to the 2000 run to the National Title (and not just because Purdue lost in the Region Final). In 2000, MSU beat Iowa State in an epic Regional Final that in retrospect many considered to be the real National Title game. Once MSU got to the Final Four, we had to grind it out against a super elite defensive squad in Wisconsin. On Monday, MSU had to play a speedy SEC upstart that some thought would run MSU out of the gym. We all know how that played out. This does all sound familiar, though, right? While I expect Virginia to beat Auburn, something just makes me wonder if MSU is going to wind up playing (and beating) Auburn on Monday night.
Well, that is all I have for now. It is going to be a long 48 hr+ until tip off. Go Green and Enjoy.
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