The State of State Football Recruiting (June, 2019 Edition)

I have seen a lot of collective hand-wringing from the on-line MSU fan base about MSU's current football recruiting class. But, any time something like this happens, it always provokes a series of questions in my mind.  How does this class really compare to other Big Ten schools?  Is this normal or not? What is the historical trend? 

Well, I just so happen to have been assembling a database of Big Ten recruiting classes back to 2007, and I think that I can provide some pretty clear answers to those questions.  First, I will say a few things about my methods. 

The data-set that I have the easiest access to is the Rivals database, so I use that exclusively.  In this system, a "5-star" ranking system is used, but they also use a finer-grained "rating" system that scores a player from 5.2 to 6.1.  The number of players in each tier changes a bit from year to year, but in general there are about 35 five-star (6.1) players a year nationally, about 400 four-stars (5.8 to 6.0), and about 1300 or so three-stars (5.5 to 5.7)  The table below give a detailed breakdown of the number of players in each tier from 2014 to 2018.  (I didn't bother tabulating the data from 2019 or 2020 yet.  I don't expect much difference.)

In addition, I do make two small adjustments.  First, I eliminate the rating for any scholarship kickers and punters.  These tend to be lower scores and not every team puts them on scholarship.  So, I think just leaving them out makes the most sense.  Second, for unranked players, I assign them a rating of 5.1.  This is mostly an issue for the current 2020 class as most Big Ten recruits will get at least a courtesy 2-star rating by signing day.

There are a lot of ways in which to measure the overall strength of a recruiting class each year.  I personally prefer to look at the average Rivals rating for each team.  If nothing else, this eliminates any bias due to large or small classes.  

With this in mind, I was able to easily calculate both the average and standard deviation of the Rivals rating for each Big Ten teams' recruiting classes back to 2007 (when the rivals rating was introduced).  In addition, I can plot each teams' current 2020 class average rating.  Finally, for reference, I added a label for the current number of players in each class.  I organized the data based on the historical average rivals rating from strongest to weakest.  That chart is shown here:

The first thing that stands out is that it is pretty easy to divide the current Big Ten teams up into recruiting tiers.  Ohio State is clearly in a tier by themselves, and Michigan is squarely in a 2nd tier alone as well.  Next, Penn State, Nebraska, and MSU (although there is separation) occupy the 3rd tier with classes that typically fall in the 5.6 to 5.7 range.  Wisconsin and Maryland are in a 4th tier below that.  The large 5th tier is a half step back and includes Iowa, Rutgers, Northwestern, Illinois, and Minnesota.  Bringing up the rear is the great state of Indiana.

It is also interesting to see how each team is doing in 2020 relative to their historical average.  Ohio State and Michigan are right at their average.  MSU, meanwhile, is slightly below average, but only by 0.02.  Iowa, Rutgers, and Northwestern are all doing above average (but not better than MSU), while Maryland, Minnesota, and Indiana are a bit below average.  

Nebraska and Illinois both seem to be doing very well, but their current classes are very small and I think an "incomplete" is the most fair grade for them right now.  However, Wisconsin and Purdue are also doing quite well (ahead of MSU) with larger classes.  Those two teams are the ones to watch for the rest of the cycle.  I didn't mention Penn State, as they currently have two unranked skill players who are skewing their current average.  If I remove those two guys, PSU is actually slightly above average.  I basically give them an "incomplete" as well for now.

The second set of data that I find useful is the historical trends in Rivals rating for MSU and for some of our chief rivals, specifically UofM and OSU.  That data (back to 2009 in this case) is shown here.  Note that I only included these teams and these years in an attempt to make the graph readable.

For this data-set, a few things also stand out.  First, you can get a feel for the ebb and flow of recruiting from year to year.  Second, similar to the last plot, we can see the OSU leads the conference in recruiting pretty much every year.  In addition, UofM in most years "out-recruits" MSU based on this metric.  But, MSU certainly has had success during this stretch.  

As for MSU, you can also see a few noteworthy trends.  In the years before the Rose Bowl, MSU's average was in general in the low 5.6 range.  Although it is not shown on this graph, prior to 2009, MSU's average rating was closer to 5.5.  Basically, in the Dantonio era, MSU has moved from a "Tier 5" program (on par, from a recruiting standpoint, with Iowa, Illinois and Northwestern) to a "Tier 3" program (on par with Penn State and Nebraska... more or less).  MSU as a general rule out-recruits Wisconsin almost every year, and one could make the case that Wisconsin has been at least the 2nd most successful program in the conference for the last 20-25 years.

After the Rose Bowl, MSU's average rating grew steadily to a peak in 2016, at which point MSU's rating was squarely in the Tier 2 range with Michigan.  But... it turns out that class had some bad apples in it.  Following the dismal season in 2016, MSU's recruiting returned to the "Tier 3" level, and has hovered in the low 5.6 range for the past 3 cycles.  The 2020 class looks to be in the same range.  

Just as an observation, it is also super clear from this data when Harbaugh took over in Ann Arbor, right?  I mean there is just that huge spike in the data... wait... I don't see it now.  Oh, that's right, it doesn't exist.  Jimmy is currently working on his 5th recruiting class and his average rating so far is 5.75.  Hoke's average was 5.74.  Although Rich Rod's final class in 2011 was well below their average (5.66), his two classes before that averaged 5.72.  Michigan is currently recruiting at exactly the same level that they always have.  All this nonsense about the cupboard being bare at literally any point is just that: nonsense.

But, back to MSU.  What is the current state of State's recruiting? Based on this analysis, I think that it is just fine.  The data above clearly show that MSU is in a recruiting tier and peer group where Championship Football can and has been played.  The current 2020 class, while possibly slightly below average for MSU so far, is still well within this range. 

Sure, MSU had and then lost momentum from the "golden years" of 2013-2015.  That is unfortunate.  But, Dantonio and co. are still recruiting the caliber of players that got them to the Rose Bowl in the first place (see the recruiting classes between 2009 and 2012).  While there may have been some misses along the way this summer, Coach D seems to be getting his guys, and I have a feeling a lot of them will rise in the rankings before signing day... not that that matters, but I suspect it will be true.  In any event, I see no reason to panic based on the historical data.  I trust that Coach D knows what he is doing... and so should you.