In the field of quantum physics, there is a concept known as superposition. Without getting too far into the weeds, superposition is the concept that systems can exist in states that are effectively a combination of multiple states. An electron can sometimes act like a wave and sometimes act like a particle. It is a superposition of both at the same time. Schrödinger's cat (a close relative of Faux Pelini’s cat) can be both alive and dead at the same time. Statements can be both true and false simultaneously.
Quantum mechanics can be a very confusing, frustrating, and difficult pursuit. In that regard, it is exactly like MSU football. As we look back on MSU’s excruciating loss to Arizona State last weekend, everyone has an opinion on what went wrong and who is to blame. Was it the play-calling? the coaching? the execution? the refs? the added pressure of Dantonio breaking the record? the injuries? just bad luck? Well, I would argue that MSU’s misfortune was a superposition of all those things. Sometimes more than one thing can be true at the same time.
But, another principle of superposition is that in most cases, you can force the quantum state to collapse into a single state, often triggered by simple observation. If you make the observation, the electron suddenly acts like either a wave or a particle. The cat is either alive or dead.
As for MSU, we have had a total of three observations so far this season, and so far, the results are mixed. Against Tulsa the offense was miserable, but the defense was awesome. Against Western, everything was awesome. Against Arizona State, both the offense and defense but up good numbers in every phase of the game except the score board. In general, things were a bit sloppy. So what state is State in right now? Is this a good team or a bad team? Is MSU’s season alive or already dead? It seems to be a superposition of both.
This weekend, we will get the 4th opportunity of the year to observe the state of MSU football. The challenge that Northwestern poses is a superposition of both scary and not scary. On one hand, Northwestern has not looked good this season, especially on offense. The Wildcats lost to a Stanford team that just got blown out by UCF. Then, they followed that up with a lack-luster win over UNLV, who is traditionally one of the weakest teams in the FBS. So, maybe not so scary…
Except the fact that MSU is playing its first road game of the season against a team coached by Pat Fitzgerald. Coach Fitz is like the Neils Bohr to Coach Dantonio’s Albert Einstein. He just seems to have MSU’s number. Furthermore, Northwestern seems to be pretty good on defense this year, and MSU seems to be pretty good at not scoring on good defenses. So… maybe scary. It is the superposition of both.
Superposition is ultimately a type of cross-road, and that is exactly where MSU seems to find themselves this weekend. The final aspect of quantum mechanics that seems relevant here is that probability can be used to define the odds of each of the potential final states. In this case, MSU opened as a 6.5-point favorite, based on my source. That corresponds to a 68% chance that MSU wins this game and gets back on track. Conversely, there is also a 32% chance that the cat is dead, and I don’t mean the Wild one.
As the week has progressed, the line keeps moving in MSU’s favor. That is consistent with both my algorithm (which has MSU as -11.4) and the FPI (which has MSU as -10.8). So, the unemotional, cold numbers suggest MSU wins and even covers. My precise score prediction is that MSU wins a (surprise!) low scoring game: 24-13. This would also fall slightly below the current over/under of 39 points. If something like that happens, Coach D would break the record and MSU’s season would be back in good position to possibly achieve some pretty super things.
If MSU somehow finds themselves in the opposite quantum state with another game in the loss column… well, let’s just say that MSU’s position would be far from super.
National Overview
As usual, here is my weekly comparison of the opening Vegas line to my spreadsheet's predictions:
Quantum mechanics can be a very confusing, frustrating, and difficult pursuit. In that regard, it is exactly like MSU football. As we look back on MSU’s excruciating loss to Arizona State last weekend, everyone has an opinion on what went wrong and who is to blame. Was it the play-calling? the coaching? the execution? the refs? the added pressure of Dantonio breaking the record? the injuries? just bad luck? Well, I would argue that MSU’s misfortune was a superposition of all those things. Sometimes more than one thing can be true at the same time.
But, another principle of superposition is that in most cases, you can force the quantum state to collapse into a single state, often triggered by simple observation. If you make the observation, the electron suddenly acts like either a wave or a particle. The cat is either alive or dead.
As for MSU, we have had a total of three observations so far this season, and so far, the results are mixed. Against Tulsa the offense was miserable, but the defense was awesome. Against Western, everything was awesome. Against Arizona State, both the offense and defense but up good numbers in every phase of the game except the score board. In general, things were a bit sloppy. So what state is State in right now? Is this a good team or a bad team? Is MSU’s season alive or already dead? It seems to be a superposition of both.
This weekend, we will get the 4th opportunity of the year to observe the state of MSU football. The challenge that Northwestern poses is a superposition of both scary and not scary. On one hand, Northwestern has not looked good this season, especially on offense. The Wildcats lost to a Stanford team that just got blown out by UCF. Then, they followed that up with a lack-luster win over UNLV, who is traditionally one of the weakest teams in the FBS. So, maybe not so scary…
Except the fact that MSU is playing its first road game of the season against a team coached by Pat Fitzgerald. Coach Fitz is like the Neils Bohr to Coach Dantonio’s Albert Einstein. He just seems to have MSU’s number. Furthermore, Northwestern seems to be pretty good on defense this year, and MSU seems to be pretty good at not scoring on good defenses. So… maybe scary. It is the superposition of both.
Superposition is ultimately a type of cross-road, and that is exactly where MSU seems to find themselves this weekend. The final aspect of quantum mechanics that seems relevant here is that probability can be used to define the odds of each of the potential final states. In this case, MSU opened as a 6.5-point favorite, based on my source. That corresponds to a 68% chance that MSU wins this game and gets back on track. Conversely, there is also a 32% chance that the cat is dead, and I don’t mean the Wild one.
As the week has progressed, the line keeps moving in MSU’s favor. That is consistent with both my algorithm (which has MSU as -11.4) and the FPI (which has MSU as -10.8). So, the unemotional, cold numbers suggest MSU wins and even covers. My precise score prediction is that MSU wins a (surprise!) low scoring game: 24-13. This would also fall slightly below the current over/under of 39 points. If something like that happens, Coach D would break the record and MSU’s season would be back in good position to possibly achieve some pretty super things.
If MSU somehow finds themselves in the opposite quantum state with another game in the loss column… well, let’s just say that MSU’s position would be far from super.
National Overview
As usual, here is my weekly comparison of the opening Vegas line to my spreadsheet's predictions:
For comparison, here is the chart using ESPN's FPI
As mentioned above, both my metric and the FPI like MSU by double digits, and my math likes the under, but neither signal is strong enough for one of my official bet recommendation. What I do recommend is found in the table below, which corresponds to the games plotted outside of the dotted lines in either of the two plots above.
In my case, I have 6 games where I like the favorite to cover, including taking Wisconsin to cover over Michigan, and Arizona State to cover against Colorado. That sure sounds nice. In contrast, the FPI data to me suggests 4 games where the underdog covers, including USC over Utah and Western Michigan over Syracuse.
Starting this week, I have ordered these predictions from "most likely" to "least likely," based on the combined weighted magnitude of the difference between my/the FPI prediction and the spread. As is clear from my figure, the Michigan / Wisconsin game is the clear outlier. My model likes Wisconsin to win by over 25 points. If you are looking for a 2-game parley, my analysis suggests adding Clemson to cover the 41-point spread vs. Charlotte. But that is an awful big number...
As for upset, the picks for the week are shown below:
As mentioned above, both my metric and the FPI like MSU by double digits, and my math likes the under, but neither signal is strong enough for one of my official bet recommendation. What I do recommend is found in the table below, which corresponds to the games plotted outside of the dotted lines in either of the two plots above.
In my case, I have 6 games where I like the favorite to cover, including taking Wisconsin to cover over Michigan, and Arizona State to cover against Colorado. That sure sounds nice. In contrast, the FPI data to me suggests 4 games where the underdog covers, including USC over Utah and Western Michigan over Syracuse.
Starting this week, I have ordered these predictions from "most likely" to "least likely," based on the combined weighted magnitude of the difference between my/the FPI prediction and the spread. As is clear from my figure, the Michigan / Wisconsin game is the clear outlier. My model likes Wisconsin to win by over 25 points. If you are looking for a 2-game parley, my analysis suggests adding Clemson to cover the 41-point spread vs. Charlotte. But that is an awful big number...
As for upset, the picks for the week are shown below:
Combined, my model and the FPI like a total of 10 upsets, most notably Western Michigan over Syracuse (FPI), Auburn over Texas A&M (Dr. G&W), and USC over Utah (FPI). My weekly simulation of the week's games suggests that we will see 11.6 ± 2.8 upsets, which is the largest predicted number so far this year.
Now, let's take a closer look at the action in each conference this week.
Big Ten
Conference play starts for several league members this week with three conference games on tap and an additional three non-conference games. The remaining five teams (Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State, and Purdue) are taking the week off, presumably to go apple picking and pound a few boxes of cider-mill donuts. Considering the Big Ten was essentially a dumpster fire last weekend (4 upsets and 3 others teams not covering) it is probably smart to explore other hobbies for a week.
The non-conference games all look basically unwatchable, as Ohio State is a 38-point favorite over Miami (OH) and the other two games involve Indiana (-26.5 vs. UCONN) and Rutgers (+6.5 vs. Boston College). No thank you.
As for the conference games, one is Nebraska (-10) at Illinois. The Huskers are reasonably big favorites, and still (in their minds) a potential Big Ten West dark-horse. If they get upset this weekend, the horse will officially be out of the barn. We already discussed MSU's (-6.5) trip to Chicago, but I will add that the loser of that game is really going to be a hole for the rest of the season. It is as close to a "must win" game for both teams as I can imagine for mid-September.
That leaves the marquee game of the week in the Big Ten as Michigan travels to Madison to face Wisconsin (-2.5). The destinies of there two teams seem to be in a state of entanglement that is beautifully symmetric. In the preseason, UofM was hailed as a playoff contender, while Wisconsin was supposed to be just OK. Now, Wisconsin looks like the playoff contender, while Michigan looked just OK (if I am being extremely generous).
On Saturday we will find out which team is for real and which one is not. Based on what we have actually seen so far, I think that there is a very good chance that UofM gets beat and perhaps even beaten convincingly. But, never under-estimate the chance that Bucky Badger sees those winged helmets and find a way to crap the bed. That wouldn't shock me either.
SEC
Down South, all 14 SEC teams are in action this week in a combination of 5 conference and 4 non-conference games. Of the non-con games, two of them should be blow-outs (Southern Miss at Alabama [-37] and San Jose State at Arkansas [-20.5]), and one of them might be close, but it largely irrelevant: California at Ole Miss (+1.5). Dropping college kids from Berkeley into Oxford, Mississippi for an afternoon sounds more like a knock-off of a bad episode of the Big Bang Theory than a football game.
But, the 4th game is certainly interesting as Notre Dame travel to Athens to face the Georgia Bulldogs (-11.5). While the Dawgs are the clear favorite (and almost made my list of teams to cover), neither team has really shown us very much, so either outcome would be a total shock. The winner will likely score a huge boost to their playoff resume.
As for the 5 conference games, most are a bit lackluster. Tennessee at Florida (-14.5)? LSU (-21) at Vandy? Kentucky at Mississippi State (-7.5)? None of those will inspire me to even look for the remote control, let alone change the channel. South Carolina at Missouri (-9.5)? Sure, that might be fun. As things stand now, this looks like a clear battle for 3rd place in the SEC East. If nothing else, the loser of that contest is likely out of contention in the SEC East, assuming those teams are even still in contention now.
That leaves the remaining show-down of Auburn at Texas A&M (-4). Right now the SEC West looks like a 2-subatomic particle race between LSU and Alabama. The winner of the Auburn / A&M game will be able to make a case as a possible dark-horse. While Vegas and the FPI favor the Aggies, my algorithm like the Tigers.
ACC / Notre Dame
With the exception of Notre Dame's aforementioned trip to Georgia, the slate in the ACC this week is weaker than the weak nuclear force. Three teams are on a bye, four other teams are either 30+ point favorites or are facing an FCS team. NC State (-19) is also hosting Ball State. (Yawn...)
Let's see, is Boston College (-6.5) at Rutgers a rivalry game? Do you need to have actual fans to also have rivals? Does anyone care about Louisville at Florida State (-7)? If UCF comes to Pittsburgh (+10) and wins by double digits, will Coach Narduzzi need to update his resume? (Yawn...)
That only leaves two other games that could get unpleasant for the ACC. First, Appalachian State is coming down the mountain to UNC (-4.5) to pay the Tar Heals a visit. Second, our old friends the Western Michigan Bronco are galloping over to Syracuse (-4.5) to face the Orangemen. There is less than a 40% chance that the ACC wins both of those games... (**whispers** Go Broncos!)
Big 12
The schedule of games on the Great Plains is not much better than on the Atlantic Coast. Here we have three teams on a bye and two other that are roughly 20 point favorites or better. TCU (-9.5) will battle SMU to decide once and for all which Dallas-area-religiously-affiliated school with a 3-letter acronym name is better. After the game, the teams will engage is a philosophical debate on whether or not God does, in fact, play dice with the Universe.
That only leaves two conference games, and one of those is West Virginia (-4) at Kansas. Can the Jayhawks score another update and win two games in a row for only the 2nd time since 2011? The game of the week in the Big 12, by default, winds up being Oklahoma State at Texas (-7). The Longhorns are at home and look to be the better team, so no drama is really expected, but this is the best they can do.
Pac 12
We now turn to the land of (unnoticed) quantum leaps and subsequent hollow apologies. I am referring, of course, to the Pac-12. As I look through the slate of games out West, I must admit that this is where the action seems to be this weekend. The schedule includes 2 non-conference games and 4 conference games, only one of which has a spread that opened higher than 8 points.
One of the non-con games I mentioned already: Cal (-1.5) at Ole Miss in the Culture Shock Bowl. The other features Washington (-6.5) in a sneaky road-trip to BYU. The Cougars beat USC at home last week and the Huskies already choked against Cal in Week 2. Can BYU get another upset and match Hawaii's feat of going 2-1 against Pac-12 opponents? We shall see.
In conference play, the only lopsided match-up looks to be UCLA at Washington State (-17). The Bruins haven't won a game yet this year and are already looking at alternative plans for the Holidays. The other three games all look pretty interesting. First, Oregon (-8) travels to Palo Alto to face the Cardinal in their first big test of the conference season. The Ducks are the clear favorite now in the North, but they have a brutal conference schedule with upcoming games at Washington, at USC, and at Arizona State. Every road victory will be crucial.
Second, we have Colorado making a trek into the desert to face Arizona State (-7). I think the main question here is if Arizona State is actually a decent team or did MSU actually just get punked by a 0.500 squad in the weakest Power Five conference? Third, Utah (-4) travels to USC in a game that I have had circled on my calendar since the summer. While Oregon has a very tough road schedule the Ute's schedule is the exact opposite. If Utah gets this win, I think that they are a virtual shoe-in to win the Pac-12 South. If the Trojans get the W, I think the race opens up and becomes a 3-team race between USC, Utah, and maybe ASU.
Group of Five
After UCF anti-matter style annihilation of Stanford in Orlando last weekend, the Golden Knights served notice that they are most definitely the team to beat in the Group of Five. They can comfortably start to explore hotels options near the Cotton Bowl in late December. This week, the Knight look to close out the non-con season at Pitt (+10). If they win there, as expected, it is really just a question of whether or not they choke in the AAC race. They do need to win the Conference Championship game in order to claim their ticket to the NY6. Cincinnati and Memphis (both on a bye this week) are the most likely potential disruptors, but we likely won't know the level of threat until later in the season.
That said, it is still worth while to keep an eye on some of the other G5 races, just in case... In the Mountain West, Boise State is the clear favorite, and they have a very manageable test vs. Air Force (+9.5). The more interesting match-up is Utah State at San Diego State (+2.5). The loser of that game is in danger of falling out of the M-West race. Vegas has the Aggies as the narrow favorite, while my algorithm likes the Aztecs. I will also be keeping a eye on the Wyoming at Tulsa (-3) game. The Hurricane are favored, but my spreadsheet also likes the upset here as well.
Finally, it is always fun to keep an eye on the MACtion and the Funbelt. Several of the favorites in the MAC have notable non-conference match-ups with week, including UL-Lafayette at Ohio (-3.5), Toledo (-7) at Colorado State, and Western Michigan (+4.5) at Syracuse. In Sunbelt action, App State's road trip to UNC (-4.5) looks like some good-old-fashioned southern fun.
That is all for now. As always, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Wildcats!
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