As I pointed out in this week's preview, this season has in general been a bit erratic, with dramatic and emotional swings. It almost feels like we are bouncing back in forth between two parallel Universes where some things are the opposite of how they are in our Universe. It's just like the classic Original Series Star Trek episode "Mirror Mirror," except instead of Spock suddenly having ragged clothing, a goatee, and acting mean, this week it was Mike Tressel's defense suddenly not being able to cover anyone.
For once, MSU offense saved the day, withCaptain Kirk Captain Lewerke once again showing he was the master of the two-minute offense. Matt Coghlin missed another kick early, but the real Coghlin emerged from the mirror Universe after half time in time to play the roll of hero. Apparently there is also a version of Brandon Sowards somewhere in the Multiverse who is a great punt returner. (We aren't sending that guy back. He stays in this Universe). We all should have taken the over. But, the biggest tell that something was up is that MSU was actually facing Northwestern’s offense. It is just that in the Mirror Universe, they arrived a week late and showed up wearing Indiana uniforms.
As the game clock reached a little over a minute left, MSU found themselves in 1st and goal at the one yard line in a tie game. At that point, as MSU fans watched from their own personal agonizer booth, Coach Dantonio made a somewhat odd decision to milk the clock and kick the winning field goal instead of trying to score a touchdown. Some may have checked the sideline to see if Coach D had suddenly sprouted a goatee of his own. While it might have seemed strange to people (including the majority of fans near me in Spartan Stadium Saturday night), to me it was the correct strategic move.
I look at it like this. Consider the analogy of the situation in basketball when your team is up three late and the opponent has the ball. Do you foul before the other team can hoist a three or do you defend? According to Kenpom, the odds of losing using the “foul” strategy is about 6.5%. Most people swear that the foul strategy is the way to go. According to this SI article, the odds of a college kicker missing a PAT is about 3.8%. Even if Big Red would have missed, MSU still could have won in overtime, so the odds of losing would have been about half that. In other words, Dantonio made a call to use a strategy that is roughly four times more likely to work than the "foul" strategy that in a basketball game. It is not a perfect analogy, but I believe Dantonio made the right call.
If I consider the fact that Indiana would have almost certainly let MSU score with a minute left, and the fact that Indiana had literally just marched up the field in about a minute was evidence enough for me. If nothing else, I was already getting the jitters about IU potentially going for 2 to try win in regulation. The odds of a successful 2-point conversion are 40% or better. That does not sound like fun. Just ask Clemson.
But, at the end of the day, MSU won, and as we found out 2 weeks ago, a win is a heck of a lot better than a loss, no matter what Universe you are in.
Big Ten Metrics Update
So, after the dust settled early Sunday morning, here are the updated odds for the Big Ten race, based on my power rankings and projected point spreads.
Here are the updated expected win totals and number of games favored (or already won/lost):
A more visual representation of the data, along with the trends for the year is shown here:
For a weekend in the Big Ten with fairly ho-hum schedule, I see a lot of movement in these probabilities. Part of this is due to the fact that I have now cut loose the preseason rankings data from my analysis. For a team like Michigan, who was ranked in the Top 5 but has shown nothing so far this year, the updated numbers are not kind. (Sorry, but beating Rutgers to a pulp is literally meaningless.)
But, that is not the only factor. Ohio State and Penn State both dominated, as did Iowa, while Wisconsin looked a bit more vulnerable. As for MSU, my system has consistently had MSU ranked in the Top 15 in my power rankings, and MSU actually went up this week to #12. However, the OSU and PSU games look even tougher after Week 5, as those teams went up even more.
If I literally add all of that up, Ohio State is the new #1 team in the country with a 94% chance to win the East, a 91% chance to win the Big Ten and a 73% chance to make the Playoffs. Based on how they have looked over the past few weeks, it is hard to argue with that. The other big change in the East is that Penn State has now leap-frogged MSU for the 2nd best odds in East at 4.6%. MSU is at 1.6%, and all other teams in the East I give less than a 1 in 4 million chance. While that is a bit hard to believe, it is pretty hilarious.
As for the race in the Big Ten West, Iowa made a major move this week and their odds are now up to 44%. Meanwhile, the Badgers underwhelmed a bit against Northwestern, and their odds fell to 54% as they also dropped out of my Top 10.
MSU’s total expected wins held pretty steady at 8.61 wins after Week 5. I now project that MSU has a 14% chance to win at least 10 games, a 55% chance to win at least 9 games, and a 92% chance to win at least 8. As for my projected spreads for MSU’s remaining games, I have:
MSU (+27.4) at Ohio State ⬆️
MSU (+3.6) at Wisconsin ⬇️
MSU (+3.8) vs. Penn State ⬆️
MSU (-28.1) vs. Illinois ⬇️
MSU (-13.5) at Michigan ⬇️
MSU (-46.0) at Rutgers ⬇️
MSU (-28.6) at Maryland ⬇️
The Ohio State and Penn State lines have gotten worse, but the remaining 5 games all look better. The actual Ohio State lined has opened at +17.5 for MSU, but it seems to be headed up and up. That is about where I expected, but my computer is not optimistic about next weekend.
Upset and Performance Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall, my picks, similar to MSU, were just OK. I went 25-26 (49%) against the spread, which brings my year-to-date tally to 120-119 (50.2%). For the first time this year, really, ESPN’s FPI had a good weekend, going 31-20 ATS (61%). The bad news for the FPI is that YTD it is only 111-128 (46.4%) which is still pretty bad.
As for my recommended bets, here is the summary table for Week 5:
Based on just my picks, I was 3-3, which brings my YTD totals to 17-14 (54.8%). Not bad. Although the FPI only signaled two picks this week, they both were correct, which brings its total YTD to 13-10 (56.5%). Altogether, that puts me at 29-23 (55.8%) which is solid, in my view.
As for the straight-up upsets, here is the summary table:
While I predicted that it could be a wild weekend for upsets, it really wasn’t. The biggest upset based on the opening line was Arkansas State over Troy (-6). As for the computers’ performance, I again went five hundred at 3-3, while the FPI went 3 of 4. That brings my performance YTD to 9-12 (43%) and the FPI’s performance to 7-9 (44%).
National Overview
As usual, here are the full results from the week to put things into perspective. Due to some of the off-scale results this week, I will show both the full graph and a zoomed-in version such that the data labels aren’t all messed up.
and zoomed in:
The national plot emphasizes some of the oddness in the Big Ten, as Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa were four of the biggest over-achievers of the week, along with Cincinnati, TCU, Auburn, and Utah. On the flip side, Clemson, Texas A&M, and even Alabama were some of the clear underachievers, which suggests that MSU was not the only team that toyed with the Mirror Universe this weekend.
As for the upsets, Duke and Hawaii boat-raced VA Tech and Nevada, despite both being narrow underdogs. Thanks for messing up my plot, jerks.
As for my conference-by-conference hot takes:
For once, MSU offense saved the day, with
As the game clock reached a little over a minute left, MSU found themselves in 1st and goal at the one yard line in a tie game. At that point, as MSU fans watched from their own personal agonizer booth, Coach Dantonio made a somewhat odd decision to milk the clock and kick the winning field goal instead of trying to score a touchdown. Some may have checked the sideline to see if Coach D had suddenly sprouted a goatee of his own. While it might have seemed strange to people (including the majority of fans near me in Spartan Stadium Saturday night), to me it was the correct strategic move.
I look at it like this. Consider the analogy of the situation in basketball when your team is up three late and the opponent has the ball. Do you foul before the other team can hoist a three or do you defend? According to Kenpom, the odds of losing using the “foul” strategy is about 6.5%. Most people swear that the foul strategy is the way to go. According to this SI article, the odds of a college kicker missing a PAT is about 3.8%. Even if Big Red would have missed, MSU still could have won in overtime, so the odds of losing would have been about half that. In other words, Dantonio made a call to use a strategy that is roughly four times more likely to work than the "foul" strategy that in a basketball game. It is not a perfect analogy, but I believe Dantonio made the right call.
If I consider the fact that Indiana would have almost certainly let MSU score with a minute left, and the fact that Indiana had literally just marched up the field in about a minute was evidence enough for me. If nothing else, I was already getting the jitters about IU potentially going for 2 to try win in regulation. The odds of a successful 2-point conversion are 40% or better. That does not sound like fun. Just ask Clemson.
But, at the end of the day, MSU won, and as we found out 2 weeks ago, a win is a heck of a lot better than a loss, no matter what Universe you are in.
Big Ten Metrics Update
So, after the dust settled early Sunday morning, here are the updated odds for the Big Ten race, based on my power rankings and projected point spreads.
Here are the updated expected win totals and number of games favored (or already won/lost):
A more visual representation of the data, along with the trends for the year is shown here:
For a weekend in the Big Ten with fairly ho-hum schedule, I see a lot of movement in these probabilities. Part of this is due to the fact that I have now cut loose the preseason rankings data from my analysis. For a team like Michigan, who was ranked in the Top 5 but has shown nothing so far this year, the updated numbers are not kind. (Sorry, but beating Rutgers to a pulp is literally meaningless.)
But, that is not the only factor. Ohio State and Penn State both dominated, as did Iowa, while Wisconsin looked a bit more vulnerable. As for MSU, my system has consistently had MSU ranked in the Top 15 in my power rankings, and MSU actually went up this week to #12. However, the OSU and PSU games look even tougher after Week 5, as those teams went up even more.
If I literally add all of that up, Ohio State is the new #1 team in the country with a 94% chance to win the East, a 91% chance to win the Big Ten and a 73% chance to make the Playoffs. Based on how they have looked over the past few weeks, it is hard to argue with that. The other big change in the East is that Penn State has now leap-frogged MSU for the 2nd best odds in East at 4.6%. MSU is at 1.6%, and all other teams in the East I give less than a 1 in 4 million chance. While that is a bit hard to believe, it is pretty hilarious.
As for the race in the Big Ten West, Iowa made a major move this week and their odds are now up to 44%. Meanwhile, the Badgers underwhelmed a bit against Northwestern, and their odds fell to 54% as they also dropped out of my Top 10.
MSU’s total expected wins held pretty steady at 8.61 wins after Week 5. I now project that MSU has a 14% chance to win at least 10 games, a 55% chance to win at least 9 games, and a 92% chance to win at least 8. As for my projected spreads for MSU’s remaining games, I have:
MSU (+27.4) at Ohio State ⬆️
MSU (+3.6) at Wisconsin ⬇️
MSU (+3.8) vs. Penn State ⬆️
MSU (-28.1) vs. Illinois ⬇️
MSU (-13.5) at Michigan ⬇️
MSU (-46.0) at Rutgers ⬇️
MSU (-28.6) at Maryland ⬇️
The Ohio State and Penn State lines have gotten worse, but the remaining 5 games all look better. The actual Ohio State lined has opened at +17.5 for MSU, but it seems to be headed up and up. That is about where I expected, but my computer is not optimistic about next weekend.
Upset and Performance Against the Spread (ATS)
Overall, my picks, similar to MSU, were just OK. I went 25-26 (49%) against the spread, which brings my year-to-date tally to 120-119 (50.2%). For the first time this year, really, ESPN’s FPI had a good weekend, going 31-20 ATS (61%). The bad news for the FPI is that YTD it is only 111-128 (46.4%) which is still pretty bad.
As for my recommended bets, here is the summary table for Week 5:
Based on just my picks, I was 3-3, which brings my YTD totals to 17-14 (54.8%). Not bad. Although the FPI only signaled two picks this week, they both were correct, which brings its total YTD to 13-10 (56.5%). Altogether, that puts me at 29-23 (55.8%) which is solid, in my view.
As for the straight-up upsets, here is the summary table:
While I predicted that it could be a wild weekend for upsets, it really wasn’t. The biggest upset based on the opening line was Arkansas State over Troy (-6). As for the computers’ performance, I again went five hundred at 3-3, while the FPI went 3 of 4. That brings my performance YTD to 9-12 (43%) and the FPI’s performance to 7-9 (44%).
National Overview
As usual, here are the full results from the week to put things into perspective. Due to some of the off-scale results this week, I will show both the full graph and a zoomed-in version such that the data labels aren’t all messed up.
and zoomed in:
The national plot emphasizes some of the oddness in the Big Ten, as Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Iowa were four of the biggest over-achievers of the week, along with Cincinnati, TCU, Auburn, and Utah. On the flip side, Clemson, Texas A&M, and even Alabama were some of the clear underachievers, which suggests that MSU was not the only team that toyed with the Mirror Universe this weekend.
As for the upsets, Duke and Hawaii boat-raced VA Tech and Nevada, despite both being narrow underdogs. Thanks for messing up my plot, jerks.
As for my conference-by-conference hot takes:
- The story in the Big Ten is essentially what I stated above already. No one was upset this week, but several teams really excelled (Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa) while others (Wisconsin and MSU in particular) didn't do themselves any favors. Next week should bring more separation.
- The story was similar in the SEC. No upsets, but some of the top dogs that under-performed, including Bama and A&M, while Auburn and South Carolina looked good.
- In the Big 12, there were really only two games of note, and in those two, Baylor beat Iowa State and Oklahoma State took out Kansas State. Is Baylor a contender now? My math doesn't really think so, but they are 4-0 now...
- Uh Clemson? You guys OK? It seems that on their drunken stagger to the ACC Title Game, they almost fell and broke their nose in Chapel Hill this weekend. The key word there is almost. In other news, Wake Forest is still undefeated, but Virginia is not. Due to this, Notre Dame's case for a playoff spot continues to gain strength.
- In the Pac-12, things basically went as planned. Washington and Utah won, while USC and Washington State lost. The only mild surprise was that Arizona State beat Cal and now there are no undefeated teams in the entire conference.
- In the Group of Five, it was pretty much status quo. UCF, Memphis, and Cincinnati all won, as did Utah State, Fresno State, and Appalachian State. Toledo even picked up a nice upset win over BYU. For now, it is essentially a waiting game to see which team blinks next and knocks themselves out of the race.
As for my spreadsheets current Top 25, here is what I have:
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Penn State
- Alabama
- Auburn
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- LSU
- Oklahoma State
- Arizona State
- Wisconsin
- Michigan State
- Notre Dame
- Washington
- Iowa
- Texas
- Clemson
- Missouri
- Memphis
- California
- UCF
- Iowa State
- Indiana
- Kansas State
- Utah
Again, some of these rankings are a bit eye-opening (like Oklahoma State and Arizona State in the Top 10 and Clemson at 17) but recall that my computer is also bouncing back and forth between a Universe with preseason rankings and one without. Things may be a bit weird on this front over the coming weeks.
Finally, since I was able to crunch these numbers already this weekend, here are my current odds the the College Football Playoffs:
I would say a Playoff including Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma seems perfectly reasonable with what we know right now.
That is all for now. Keep a look out for my Week 6 preview a bit later in the week. Until then, enjoy, and Go Green.
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