As MSU makes its way through the Hero’s Journey that is the
2019 Football season, my mind is drawn this week to some similarities to the uber-iconic
original Star Wars film, Episode 4: A New Hope.
During the trailer which aired this summer, that was a promise of old
faces in new roles. (Hey, is that Sir Alec Guinness and Peter Cushing? ...In a space
/ cowboy movie? Why does MSU's "new" offensive coordinator look so familiar?) At the year beginning,
there was some whining and some adventure, but then tragedy struck (R.I.P. Uncle
Owen and Aunt Beru. I suspect they were taken out by Pac-12 officials). Our
hero(s) then went on the road for some more adventures. Along the way, they picked
up some new friends with some skills (Is that Han Solo? No, it’s a competent TEs!
Welcome, Matt Seybert!)
Last weekend, our heroes found themselves in the most
dangerous place in the Big Ten galaxy. Despite
the clever storm-trooper disguises and early heroics, MSU has now found itself
squarely in the trash compactor. Many MSU fans have a very bad feeling about
this.
The problem with MSU’s schedule is that the walls are
starting to close in fast. At the beginning
of the season, the schedule looked challenging, but potentially manageable. (Just break into the cell block, rescue the Princess, and get back the Millennium Falcon... What could go wrong?) MSU had 8 very winnable games and 4 tough
ones. My summer analysis suggested that
MSU had a 50-50 shot to win all 8 of the easy games, and about a 50-50 shot
to pick off 2 of the tough ones. Just
based on this very simply analysis, 8 or 9 wins seemed quite reasonable, and
even 10 wins seemed not out of the question, if everything went well.
But, so far everything is not going that well. MSU took a serious mulligan against Arizona State
and now has already lost one of the four tough ones. MSU’s ceiling is slowly descending. For better or worse, MSU seems to be playing
the 4 tough games in reverse order of difficulty. Psychologically, that is probably the
toughest way to go because even if the games are getting a little easier, it gets harder and harder to get back on the horse once the losses start to accumulate. You can try to get
on top of the trash heap, but the walls keep inching closer and closer.
As we all know, Luke, Leia, Han, and Chewy were able to
finally escape the trash compactor, score some victories, and collect some hardware at the end, even if there were losses along the way (RIP Obi Won...). As for
MSU, I think that there is enough potential on this team to find their way to some level of glory as well, but they need to figure things out in a hurry. I am the eternal
optimist, and I think that there certainly is Hope.
I think the game plan for Wisconsin is actually pretty
simple. MSU needs to stack the box, stop the run, and force Wisconsin to try to
win through the air. Moreover, MSU needs to find a way to get a lead and put
some game pressure on the Badgers. They
have not trailed for even a second this year, and I am curious to see how and
if they can play from behind. Despite
only putting up 10 points on the Buckeyes, MSU’s offense (when they weren’t in auto-destruct
mode or pass-only desperation mode) moved the ball pretty well. Wisconsin's defense is no Ohio State defense.
If nothing else, the Northwestern game two weeks ago showed that the Badgers are mortal. While I saw a narrow path to victory against Ohio State last week, I see a much wider one this week. If MSU can simply harness their potential (Use The Force, Brian!) this is a game MSU can and perhaps even should win. I honestly like this match-up. Also, I think MSU is due for a little bit of good luck. It seems like a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away that MSU caught a real break.
If MSU can get the the win this weekend, the rest of the season will start to look a lot more manageable again. MSU will get a chance to rest, while Penn State will be coming off back-to-back games against Iowa and a night game with Michigan. And, let's be honest, James Franklin is more bounty hunter than Jedi master. I actually really like MSU's chances there as well. No matter what happens in MSU's next two games, I still like the Spartans chances to fly into Ann Arbor on November 16th and blow up the Death Star. There are more holes in that station than just a single exhaust port.
But, MSU needs to be sharp and they can't just get stuck in the dumps after last week's loss. They need to continue to climb and scratch and claw if they want to get back on top of the heap. It won't be easy, but I actually have a good feeling about this. Even though we have seen a lot of mistakes in the first 6 weeks of the season, I still have faith that the coaching staff can find a way to get most of the screws tightens. "Help us, Coach Mark Dantonio. You're our only Hope."
National Overview
As is my tradition, here is the preview chart for Week 7 showing my calculated margins of victory versus the opening Vegas lines.
As is my tradition, here is the preview chart for Week 7 showing my calculated margins of victory versus the opening Vegas lines.
For comparison, here is the same chart using ESPN's FPI.
As for the MSU game, the Spartans opened at +10 this weekend in Madison, which corresponds to a 24% chance that MSU can score an upset win. For reference, MSU closed as a 10-point underdog at Michigan in 2017. The computer models tend to agree with the line. The FPI feels every so slightly move optimistic about the Spartans and has us at +9.6. My model, however, has turned to the Dark Side and has MSU at +12.9. The over/under of right around 40 suggests a final score of maybe 24-14 Wisconsin. My model actually likes a few more points than that and likes the Badgers 30-17.
For my recommended bets this week, I once again have quite a few. My algorithm suggests a total of 11, with the FPI chipping in 3 more. The summary table is shown below:
The Big Ten slate this week consists of 6 conference games, while Ohio State and Northwestern are on a bye. The worst game of the week is clearly Maryland's (-3) visit to West Lafayette to face the Boilermakers. Purdue is really unlikely to make a Bowl at this point, but Maryland might be able to squeak their way to 6-6 if they can get this win. If we are being honest, the only real reason to watch this game is because of Purdue's legitimately awesome astronaut-themed uniforms in honor of Purdue alum Neil Armstrong. That seems very on-brand for this week's theme.
Two of the other contests don't look to be competitive, but they may tell us a bit more about the future fate of two teams in the East. Michigan (-19) travel to Illinois, while Rutgers visits Indiana (-25). Up until last week, I had Michigan as only a slight favorite on the road in Champaign, but my model was impressed with last week's win over Iowa and Michigan moved up significantly in my power rankings. If Michigan can cover the 19-point spread, that would be more evidence that they just might be a Top 25 team after all. If they don't, however, the back-end of their schedule could get very, very ugly. As for Indiana, I am not sure if we can really judge any team based on their performance against Rutgers, but my indications suggest that they are Top 30 quality. I have them winning by over 40 points and I suggest hammering that bet if at all possible.
Nebraska travels to Minnesota (-7) this weekend in an intriguing Big Ten West contest. The Gopher's schedule sets up really well for them to run their record to 8-0, and the Huskers would be a nice speed bump on that route. As for Nebraska, despite their 4-2 record, I only have them favored in one more game this year (at Purdue) so they are going to need to find another win somewhere. Interestingly, my model actually has the Huskers slightly higher ranked than the Gophers and predicts only a narrow victory for home team.
That leaves the two big games of the week which both feature high-level East-West cross overs. We already discussed MSU's (+10) trip to Madison, and the other contest is Penn State's (-2.5) visit to Iowa City. This one is honestly hard for me. My model likes PSU by a TD, but I really don't believe in either of these teams. Iowa clearly looked like bantha poodoo against Michigan and based on my power rankings, Penn State hasn't played any team ranked in the Top 50. It is a night game in at Kinnick Stadium, which also makes things weird. Are we sure both teams can't lose?
SEC
On the humid swamp planet 'SEC' this week there are 6 conference games and one meaningless non-con game featuring UNLV at Vandy (-15). For the conference games, despite the fact that none of the games have a spread under 7, most of the games look pretty interesting. The two favorites in the West both have their toughest tests of the year to date as the Darth Saban led Crimson Tide travel to Texas A&M (+17.5) while LSU (-14) hosts Florida. LSU appears to have the tougher schedule and will likely need to win to keep pace with Bama.
In the East, Georgia (-24) is hosting South Carolina, and is not expected to get tested. Meanwhile, Missouri (-12) should get a stiffer test from Ole Miss. I would not be shocked if both of those games are closer than the spread would indicate. In the remaining contests, Mississippi State (-7) is a surprisingly narrow favorite at Tennessee (take the Dawgs) and Arkansas plays at Kentucky (-7) in a game where the Wildcats will try to get to 0.500.
Big 12
Despite the fact that four of the ten teams in the Big 12 are on vacation the remaining three contests all show some promise. The big one is the Red River Showdown featuring Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas. It seems like fans have been waiting for a decade for the release of The Return of the Longhorns. Texas will get yet another chance to show the "they're back" this week, despite the fact that they probably aren't back. Either way, the winner can likely pencil themselves into the Big 12 Championship, while the loser will have to sweat a bit.
As for the other two games, first Iowa State (-8) travels to West Virginia and needs the win to stay in the race. Second, how good is Baylor? The Bears are 5-0 and up to #20 in my power rankings with wins over Iowa State and K-State. This week they host Texas Tech (+10.5) and if they continue to win, they will likely start being mentioned as a potential Big 12 dark-horse. Looking at their schedule, they could feasibly be 9-0 by the time they face either Oklahoma or Texas in mid November, and both of those teams need to make the trip to Waco this year.
ACC / Notre Dame
Remember how a long time ago we thought that the Florida State at Clemson game might be a pivotal division battle? Well, Clemson opened at -26 with a 97% chance to win, so... no. I guess that makes Louisville at Wake Forest (-6) the game of the week in the Atlantic Division. (sigh...)
In the Coastal Division, first-place Virginia travels to South Beach Planet to face Miami (-1). The Canes are a narrow favorite and most metrics agree, but my math still likes the Hoos by a TD. I don't see a single other team on their schedule that looks scary, and an 11-1 record would essentially lock Virginia into the Orange Bowl no matter what happens in the ACC Title Game. There are technically two other conference games (Syracuse at NC State [-3] and GA Tech at Duke [-18.5]) but I am not even sure those boys' Moms would want to watch that.
At least Notre Dame is doing something interesting by hosting USC (+11) this week. If the Irish can get by the Trojans this week and the Wolverines in two weeks (after a bye) they will likely roll into Palo Alto on November 30th at 10-1 with dreams of another (painfully embarrassing) playoff game (loss) dancing in their heads.
Pac 12
The schedule this week in the Pac-12 is pretty straight forward. The state of California is either taking a vacation day, or visiting their Irish friends in the Midwest. The state of Washington is visiting the arid dessert planet of Arizona, and the forest moon state of Oregon is playing the two newest members. As for the former, Arizona somehow finds themselves alone in first place in the Pac 12 South while their opponent this week, Washington (-6), is sitting at 1-2 in the North. That is at least better than Washington State, who is 0-2 in conference play and needs to travel to Tempe to face the Sun Devils (-2). Despite the loss to Colorado 2 weeks ago, my calculations still give ASU a 58% chance to win the South.
Pac 12 North favorite Oregon is a big favorite as hosts to Colorado (-19.5) this week, while the Beavers host Utah (-14). Despite the large spread, my algorithm has Oregon State ranked #38 in the country and favors the Utes by only a point. It will be interesting to see if that game is closer than expected.
Group of Five
Last week Cincinnati scored an upset of UCF that shock the foundation of the race for the Group of Five NY6 slot in the Cotton Bowl. The Golden Knights are basically out now, barring a stunning comeback and a collapse in the other G5 leagues. I personally think that the opportunity is there for Cincinnati to pounce, but they are going to need to get past a tough road test at Houston (+5) this week. Interestingly, my power rankings have the Bearcats ranked at #35 and I have Houston favored to win by 5 points. My math also says that the new AAC favorite is actually Memphis who also has a tough test at Temple (+3)
One could make the argument that Boise State now has the inside track to the Cotton Bowl, but I think that they will need to run the table to get a look. The Broncos (-13.5) have an interesting test as hosts to Hawaii this week, and as I mentioned above, my algorithm likes the Warrior to win straight up, despite the huge line. Another game to watch in the MWest is Wyoming at San Diego State (-5) as both teams are sitting pretty with a single loss so far.
Outside of the AAC and Mountain West, only a handful of teams remain in the Group of Five with 1 loss or less. In the MAC, 4-1 Toledo in the Only Hope, and they are expected to roll BGSU (+23.5) this week. In C-USA, both Louisiana Tech and UAB are sitting at one loss. LA Tech (-31.5) is facing UMASS, so they are likely to stay that way, while UAB (-9) has a tougher game at UTSA. In the Sunbelt, Appalachian State is currently at 4-0 and they are playing at the only other school with less than 2 loses: Louisiana Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are a narrow 1-point favorite in Vegas, while my algorithm favors them by almost 10.
That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Badgers!
As for the MSU game, the Spartans opened at +10 this weekend in Madison, which corresponds to a 24% chance that MSU can score an upset win. For reference, MSU closed as a 10-point underdog at Michigan in 2017. The computer models tend to agree with the line. The FPI feels every so slightly move optimistic about the Spartans and has us at +9.6. My model, however, has turned to the Dark Side and has MSU at +12.9. The over/under of right around 40 suggests a final score of maybe 24-14 Wisconsin. My model actually likes a few more points than that and likes the Badgers 30-17.
For my recommended bets this week, I once again have quite a few. My algorithm suggests a total of 11, with the FPI chipping in 3 more. The summary table is shown below:
For a 2-team parlay, the math suggests taking San Jose State and North Texas, but I must say the Indiana line (-25) versus Rutgers might just be the bet you're are looking for.
As for upset picks this week, my model and the FPI combined have 8 total to recommend, but only one is in the Power 5 (Virginia over Miami). Two of the other upset picks would have major implications in the Group of 5. My model has Houston upsetting Cincinnati and Hawaii upsetting Boise State, despite the fact that the (Jedi?) Warriors are 13.5-point dogs on the road. The full table is shown below:
My weekly Monte Carlo simulation suggests that we will observe 13.2 ± 3.0 upsets, which is the largest predicted number so far this season.
With that, let's now make the jump to light speed and take a spin around the college football galaxy.
Big Ten
Two of the other contests don't look to be competitive, but they may tell us a bit more about the future fate of two teams in the East. Michigan (-19) travel to Illinois, while Rutgers visits Indiana (-25). Up until last week, I had Michigan as only a slight favorite on the road in Champaign, but my model was impressed with last week's win over Iowa and Michigan moved up significantly in my power rankings. If Michigan can cover the 19-point spread, that would be more evidence that they just might be a Top 25 team after all. If they don't, however, the back-end of their schedule could get very, very ugly. As for Indiana, I am not sure if we can really judge any team based on their performance against Rutgers, but my indications suggest that they are Top 30 quality. I have them winning by over 40 points and I suggest hammering that bet if at all possible.
Nebraska travels to Minnesota (-7) this weekend in an intriguing Big Ten West contest. The Gopher's schedule sets up really well for them to run their record to 8-0, and the Huskers would be a nice speed bump on that route. As for Nebraska, despite their 4-2 record, I only have them favored in one more game this year (at Purdue) so they are going to need to find another win somewhere. Interestingly, my model actually has the Huskers slightly higher ranked than the Gophers and predicts only a narrow victory for home team.
That leaves the two big games of the week which both feature high-level East-West cross overs. We already discussed MSU's (+10) trip to Madison, and the other contest is Penn State's (-2.5) visit to Iowa City. This one is honestly hard for me. My model likes PSU by a TD, but I really don't believe in either of these teams. Iowa clearly looked like bantha poodoo against Michigan and based on my power rankings, Penn State hasn't played any team ranked in the Top 50. It is a night game in at Kinnick Stadium, which also makes things weird. Are we sure both teams can't lose?
SEC
On the humid swamp planet 'SEC' this week there are 6 conference games and one meaningless non-con game featuring UNLV at Vandy (-15). For the conference games, despite the fact that none of the games have a spread under 7, most of the games look pretty interesting. The two favorites in the West both have their toughest tests of the year to date as the Darth Saban led Crimson Tide travel to Texas A&M (+17.5) while LSU (-14) hosts Florida. LSU appears to have the tougher schedule and will likely need to win to keep pace with Bama.
In the East, Georgia (-24) is hosting South Carolina, and is not expected to get tested. Meanwhile, Missouri (-12) should get a stiffer test from Ole Miss. I would not be shocked if both of those games are closer than the spread would indicate. In the remaining contests, Mississippi State (-7) is a surprisingly narrow favorite at Tennessee (take the Dawgs) and Arkansas plays at Kentucky (-7) in a game where the Wildcats will try to get to 0.500.
Big 12
Despite the fact that four of the ten teams in the Big 12 are on vacation the remaining three contests all show some promise. The big one is the Red River Showdown featuring Oklahoma (-10) vs. Texas. It seems like fans have been waiting for a decade for the release of The Return of the Longhorns. Texas will get yet another chance to show the "they're back" this week, despite the fact that they probably aren't back. Either way, the winner can likely pencil themselves into the Big 12 Championship, while the loser will have to sweat a bit.
As for the other two games, first Iowa State (-8) travels to West Virginia and needs the win to stay in the race. Second, how good is Baylor? The Bears are 5-0 and up to #20 in my power rankings with wins over Iowa State and K-State. This week they host Texas Tech (+10.5) and if they continue to win, they will likely start being mentioned as a potential Big 12 dark-horse. Looking at their schedule, they could feasibly be 9-0 by the time they face either Oklahoma or Texas in mid November, and both of those teams need to make the trip to Waco this year.
ACC / Notre Dame
Remember how a long time ago we thought that the Florida State at Clemson game might be a pivotal division battle? Well, Clemson opened at -26 with a 97% chance to win, so... no. I guess that makes Louisville at Wake Forest (-6) the game of the week in the Atlantic Division. (sigh...)
In the Coastal Division, first-place Virginia travels to South Beach Planet to face Miami (-1). The Canes are a narrow favorite and most metrics agree, but my math still likes the Hoos by a TD. I don't see a single other team on their schedule that looks scary, and an 11-1 record would essentially lock Virginia into the Orange Bowl no matter what happens in the ACC Title Game. There are technically two other conference games (Syracuse at NC State [-3] and GA Tech at Duke [-18.5]) but I am not even sure those boys' Moms would want to watch that.
At least Notre Dame is doing something interesting by hosting USC (+11) this week. If the Irish can get by the Trojans this week and the Wolverines in two weeks (after a bye) they will likely roll into Palo Alto on November 30th at 10-1 with dreams of another (painfully embarrassing) playoff game (loss) dancing in their heads.
Pac 12
The schedule this week in the Pac-12 is pretty straight forward. The state of California is either taking a vacation day, or visiting their Irish friends in the Midwest. The state of Washington is visiting the arid dessert planet of Arizona, and the forest moon state of Oregon is playing the two newest members. As for the former, Arizona somehow finds themselves alone in first place in the Pac 12 South while their opponent this week, Washington (-6), is sitting at 1-2 in the North. That is at least better than Washington State, who is 0-2 in conference play and needs to travel to Tempe to face the Sun Devils (-2). Despite the loss to Colorado 2 weeks ago, my calculations still give ASU a 58% chance to win the South.
Pac 12 North favorite Oregon is a big favorite as hosts to Colorado (-19.5) this week, while the Beavers host Utah (-14). Despite the large spread, my algorithm has Oregon State ranked #38 in the country and favors the Utes by only a point. It will be interesting to see if that game is closer than expected.
Group of Five
Last week Cincinnati scored an upset of UCF that shock the foundation of the race for the Group of Five NY6 slot in the Cotton Bowl. The Golden Knights are basically out now, barring a stunning comeback and a collapse in the other G5 leagues. I personally think that the opportunity is there for Cincinnati to pounce, but they are going to need to get past a tough road test at Houston (+5) this week. Interestingly, my power rankings have the Bearcats ranked at #35 and I have Houston favored to win by 5 points. My math also says that the new AAC favorite is actually Memphis who also has a tough test at Temple (+3)
One could make the argument that Boise State now has the inside track to the Cotton Bowl, but I think that they will need to run the table to get a look. The Broncos (-13.5) have an interesting test as hosts to Hawaii this week, and as I mentioned above, my algorithm likes the Warrior to win straight up, despite the huge line. Another game to watch in the MWest is Wyoming at San Diego State (-5) as both teams are sitting pretty with a single loss so far.
Outside of the AAC and Mountain West, only a handful of teams remain in the Group of Five with 1 loss or less. In the MAC, 4-1 Toledo in the Only Hope, and they are expected to roll BGSU (+23.5) this week. In C-USA, both Louisiana Tech and UAB are sitting at one loss. LA Tech (-31.5) is facing UMASS, so they are likely to stay that way, while UAB (-9) has a tougher game at UTSA. In the Sunbelt, Appalachian State is currently at 4-0 and they are playing at the only other school with less than 2 loses: Louisiana Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are a narrow 1-point favorite in Vegas, while my algorithm favors them by almost 10.
That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go State, Beat the Badgers!
Comments
Post a Comment