The regular season may be over for MSU, but there certainly is a lot of football left to be played.
Everyone has an opinion of the current 4-team playoff system. Should it be expanded? Was the BCS system
actually better? We could discuss this for days and there is likely no correct
answer. I personally find the current
4-team playoff and New Year’s Six format to be a lot of fun. Slotting the teams into the bowls to create
good end-of-year match-ups is a fascinating puzzle to try to solve. For me, it is like bracketology in
December.
-LSU beats Georgia
There are no recommended bets this weekend, but my algorithm does have a very interesting sole upset pick, and that is Georgia over LSU. Otherwise both of the computers seem to think that most of the favored teams with not cover. It could be an interesting weekend.
That does it for now. As always, enjoy, and Go Green.
Now that we are down to the final set of championship games
and that the penultimate Playoff Rankings have been released, the number of
potential scenarios is bounded, and this allows us to take a precise look at how things may play out. Although MSU is clearly not in the
conservation for a NY6 Bowl, the final selection of teams is going to impact
where MSU will be spending the holidays.
My goal for this analysis is to look at all the possible scenarios and
understand the probabilities of each as a primer for the weekend to come.
As I have looked at the data carefully, there are several
conclusions that I have come to which drive my analysis. Those conclusions (which are partially assumptions)
are summarized here:
1) MSU at 6-6 is tied for 8th place
with Illinois among the bowl-eligible Big Ten teams. The Big Ten Bowl line-up consists of (in
order): Playoffs, Rose, Orange/Citrus,
Outback, Holiday, Gator/Music City, Pinstripe, Redbox, and Quick lane. So, the Big Ten has 9 teams to put into 9
bowls. MSU went to the Redbox Bowl last
year, so it only makes sense that MSU would go to the Quick Lane Bowl and
Illinois would go to the Redbox Bowl.
The only path that I see for MSU to go to the Pinstripe Bowl is for
another bowl to enter the picture and pick up a Big Ten team, this sliding all of the other teams up. The Cotton Bowl is the ONLY option, and it is
possible that Penn State or Wisconsin will wind up there. If that happens, I think MSU is headed to
NYC.
2) I believe that LSU and Ohio State can take a loss this
weekend and still remain in the Top 4 and in the Playoffs. I do not think that Clemson has the same
luxury. If Clemson loses, their best win
is over Texas A&M. I assume Clemson
would not drop clear out of the NY6, but I thought the same thing about Alabama
before they lost to Auburn. I am
assuming they are still in the Top 8 or so if they choke (which is very unlikely).
3) If Georgia loses to LSU and Utah beats Oregon, I am going to
assume that Utah will get that 4th playoff spot. However, I could also see the committee
suddenly elevating the Big 12 Champs (Oklahoma or Baylor) to that 4th
spot. Unfortunately, this point will
likely directly impact the Cotton Bowl and therefore MSU’s bowl location. This is, perhaps, the biggest uncertainty for
me in this entire analysis.
4) If Utah loses to Oregon, I predict and assume that they
fall out of the NY6 entirely. If they
don’t beat Oregon, their biggest win is over 7-5 Washington. This also impacts MSU’s bowl, as if Utah
loses, the only other NY6 Bowl that they could fall to is the Cotton Bowl. So, this is also a key assumption.
5) I believe that the committee is going to manipulate the
rankings in the 7-12 range to create the match-ups that they want. It is very,
very tricky to predict where teams like Utah (if they lose), Wisconsin (if they
lose), the Big 12 Championship loser, Penn State, Florida, and Auburn will land
in the final standings. But, the exact
position has implications for both the Orange and Cotton Bowl.
In the past, the committee changed the ranking of teams that
did not play in order to create better match-ups. They did it before to MSU in 2014. MSU looked like they were headed to the
Orange Bowl to play Georgia Tech, but in the final poll, the committee bumped
Mississippi State ahead of MSU, which allowed them to match MSU with Baylor in
the Cotton Bowl. They did this before
and they will (and frankly should) do it again.
If fact, I think we already saw some evidence of this in
this week’s poll. Florida flipped places
with Penn State even though both teams won. I suspect that the committee would
rather put Florida in the Orange Bowl, if possible, for geographic reasons, if
nothing else. In addition, this prevents
the Citrus Bowl from becoming an SEC-ACC match-up, which would be less
competitive than an SEC-Big 10 match-up.
Similarly, I even suspect that part of the reason Alabama dropped out of
the NY6 was to avoid placing them in an Orange Bowl match-up with Virginia. An Alabama-Big Ten match up in the Citrus or
Outback Bowl seems like a better choice.
For this reason, I am making two other big assumptions. First, I think the Florida is going to stay
in a position above either Wisconsin or Penn State such that Florida will slot
into the Orange Bowl, if they are available (i.e. not already in the Sugar
Bowl). Second, I think that if the loser
of the Big 12 Championship is available, they will be ranked in a position to
play in the Cotton Bowl. Again, this has
geographical (read: ticket sales) implications, and having 2 Big 12 teams in
the NY6 brings more balance than having 3 Big Ten teams or even 4 SEC teams in
the NY6.
So, with that all said, let’s breakdown each of the Power 5
match-ups to see how the result will impact the big picture.
ACC Championship:
Clemson (-28) vs. Virginia. 98% chance
Clemson wins.
What happens if
Clemson wins?
Clemson goes to the playoffs. However, the Orange Bowl is still obligated
to take an ACC team. Virginia is 9-3 and
is the obvious choice for the 2nd best ACC team, even if they get
blown out by Clemson. I suppose Virginia
Tech could possibly get selected, but I seriously doubt it. As for which Bowl and “seed” Clemson would
get with a win, that is still pretty complicated and not my biggest concern. At
this point I only care in they are “in” or “out.”
What happens if
Virginia wins?
Virginia is clearly not going to leap into the Playoff
picture with a win, so as the ACC Champs, they would automatically be placed in
the Orange Bowl. Basically, Virginia is
almost certainly going to the Orange Bowl no matter what.
As for Clemson, however, things get dicey. As I mentioned above, I think that if they
lose, they are out of the Top 4. That
said, in the scenarios where LSU beats Georgia and Oregon beats Utah, I think
that Clemson would still back into the Playoffs (along with LSU, OSU, and the
Big 12 Champ). Also, as I stated above,
I think that with a loss Clemson would still stay high enough ranked to draw a
bid to the Cotton Bowl. Then again, I
could see a scenario where the committee manipulates the rankings to put Clemson
in a position to play in the Citrus Bowl against a team like Auburn. That might actually make more sense…
SEC Championship: LSU
(-7) vs. Georgia. 69% chance that LSU
wins
What happens if LSU
wins?
If the Tigers win, they are clearly either the #1 or #2 seed
in the playoffs. Meanwhile Georgia is
almost certainly out of the playoffs.
But, I would not expect Georgia to fall far in the rankings, so they
would almost certainly be placed in the Sugar Bowl against either Oklahoma or
Baylor.
What happens if Georgia
wins?
In this scenario, Georgia would certainly be in the Playoffs
and the question is whether LSU would join them or not. I personally think that LSU is in either
way. But, at the very worst, LSU would
draw a Sugar Bowl bid.
So, in general, what will happen to LSU and Georgia is
straightforward. The interesting thing
is how having one or two SEC teams in the Playoffs would cascade to the rest of
the NY6. Specifically, there are two
other Bowls in play: the Sugar Bowl and the Orange Bowl. The Sugar Bowl must take the next highest
ranked SEC team. So, based on the
current playoff rankings, this is either going to be Georgia (if they lose) or
Florida (if Georgia wins).
Next up is the Orange Bowl.
As stated above, Virginia is almost certainly going to be placed in the
Orange Bowl, but the placement of their opponent is quite complicated. The “rules” state that the Orange Bowl
opponent will be the highest remaining ranked team from the SEC, Big Ten, or
Notre Dame. The Irish are too low in the
rankings to matter for this discussion.
So, the teams in play (with their current playoff rankings show in
parenthesis) are Florida (9) (if they aren’t in the Sugar Bowl), Wisconsin (8)
/ Penn State (10) (whichever is not in the Rose Bowl), and Auburn (11).
Clearly, the results of the Big Ten Championship play into
this. If Wisconsin beats OSU, the
Badgers in the Rose Bowl and this becomes a discussion between Florida, Penn
State, and Auburn. Since none of those
teams are playing this weekend, and as I noted in my assumptions, I believe
Florida (if available) would be placed into the Orange Bowl and if they are not
available, Penn State would be. If OSU
beats Wisconsin, Penn State is likely in the Rose Bowl and then the competition
is between Florida (if available), Wisconsin (with one more loss), and
Auburn. I still think that Florida would
be taken over Wisconsin, but I am not sure about 9-3 Auburn. For now, I will assume that Wisconsin would
get the nod over the Tigers
Big Ten
Championship: Ohio State (-16.5) vs.
Wisconsin. 88% chance Ohio State wins
What happens if Ohio
State wins?
The Buckeyes would obviously be in the playoffs as either
the #1 or #2 seed. Again, for this
analysis I don’t care which. The
interesting question here is what would happen to Wisconsin. Much of this I covered above and in my
assumptions. Basically, I assume that if
Georgia beats LSU, Florida will go to the Sugar Bowl, leaving the Orange Bowl
for Wisconsin (unless the committee likes the match-ups better if Auburn is
placed there instead). However, if both
LSU and Utah win this weekend, I think Florida will get the Sugar Bowl, Penn
State will get the Rose Bowl, the Big 12 Championship game loser will get the
Cotton Bowl, and Wisconsin drops out of the NY6.
What happens if
Wisconsin wins?
This is actually very easy, I think. If Wisconsin wins, they will go to the Rose
Bowl. I don’t see a path for them to
jump into the Top 4 with a win. As for
Ohio State, I think that the committee would give them a mulligan and take them
into the playoffs either way.
Pac 12
Championship: Utah (-6) vs. Oregon. 66%
chance that Utah wins
What happens if Utah
wins?
If the Utes win on Friday night, they will be watching the
SEC title game very carefully and to some extent, the Big 12 Championship
game. If Georgia upsets LSU and Clemson
wins, Utah is likely to get left out in the cold, playoff wise. But, a trip to Pasadena will hopefully soften
the blow. If LSU does beat Georgia, Utah
should get the final Playoff spot. That
said, the committee could decide to bump the Big 12 Champion, but based on the
last few playoff rankings, I think that this is less likely.
.
.
What happens if Oregon
wins?
As the Pac-12 Champion, Oregon would automatically go to the
Rose Bowl. Similar to Wisconsin, the
Ducks have no chance in my view to make it into the Top 4. The question is, where would Utah wind
up? As I mentioned above, I think that
Utah would fall out of the NY6 due to a lack of quality wins.
Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma
(-9.5) vs. Baylor. 75% chance that Oklahoma
wins
What happens if Oklahoma
wins?
If the Sooners win, as expected, like Utah, they will have
to wait until the final rankings to see if the win is impressive enough to
warrant elevation to 4th place.
Right now, Utah seems to hold the right of first refusal, but Oregon is
also lower ranked than Baylor, so basically the committee can do want ever they
want, based on what they see this weekend.
As stated above, I am going to assume that the current ranking will hold
and if they do, Oklahoma needs both Georgia and Utah to lose in order to sneak
into the playoffs. Otherwise, they
automatically draw the Sugar Bowl. As
for Baylor, a loss will drop them, but how far?
As noted above, I think the committee will tweak the rankings to make
sure they wind up in the Cotton Bowl. I
should also note that if Oklahoma does sneak into the playoffs, Baylor would
automatically be put into the Sugar Bowl, and the Cotton Bowl becomes available
for a Big Ten team.
What happens if Baylor
wins?
This scenario is essentially the exact opposite of the
situation where Oklahoma wins. Baylor
might sneak into the playoffs if Georgia and Utah lose, but otherwise they are
in the Sugar Bowl. The Sooners would
also likely go to the Cotton Bowl with a loss but could wind up in the Sugar
Bowl if Baylor finishes in the Top 4.
Group of Five
Championships:
AAC Championship:
Memphis (-9) vs. Cincinnati. 74% chance the Memphis wins
MWest Championship:
Boise State (-14.5) vs. Hawaii. 85% chance that Boise State wins
Sunbelt Championship:
Appalachian State (-5.5) vs. UL-Lafayette. 65% chance that App State wins
The scenarios for the 2nd Cotton Bowl participant
seem very straightforward to me. The
logic is as follows. If Memphis beat
Cincinnati, they will go to the Sugar Bowl.
If Memphis loses, Boise State will earn the bid with a win over
Hawaii. If both Memphis and Boise State
lose, then Appalachian State can earn the bid if they win. If somehow all three favorites lose, the
crown goes back to Cincinnati as the AAC Champ.
If I go through all the possible combinations of game outcomes using my assumptions above, I can calculate the odds of each team playing in each NY6 bowl (lumping the playoffs together) in the following table:
At the end of the day, what does this mean for MSU? MSU will draw the Pinstripe Bowl if either Penn State or Wisconsin are in the Cotton Bowl. Based on my assumptions above, that only happens with both of the following outcomes:
If I go through all the possible combinations of game outcomes using my assumptions above, I can calculate the odds of each team playing in each NY6 bowl (lumping the playoffs together) in the following table:
At the end of the day, what does this mean for MSU? MSU will draw the Pinstripe Bowl if either Penn State or Wisconsin are in the Cotton Bowl. Based on my assumptions above, that only happens with both of the following outcomes:
-LSU beats Georgia
-Oregon beats Utah.
Basically, the Big Ten needs to get shut out of the Orange
Bowl and needs a Big 12 team to make the Playoffs. Otherwise, the Cotton Bowl will fall to the
#2 Big 12 team or (in rare cases) Clemson.
Based on the opening Vegas Lines given above, the odds work
out as:
MSU to Pinstripe Bowl (vs. Pitt?): 23%
MSU to Quick-lane Bowl (vs. Florida State?): 77%
If some of my key assumptions are wrong, these odds would change. For example, if the committee is secretly planning to send the Big 12 winner to the Playoffs over Utah, the result of the Pac-12 Championship game does not matter. In this case, there is a 69% chance that the Big 10 would be placed into the the Cotton Bowl (and therefore MSU goes to the Pinstripe Bowl).
In contrast, however, if the committee likes Utah more that I think and does not drop them out of the NY6 even with a loss, then the odds of the the Big 10 being placed into the the Cotton Bowl (and therefore MSU in the Pinstripe Bowl) essentially drop to zero, as long as my theory that the Cotton Bowl has a preference for a Big 12 team. Then again, if my Florida / Orange Bowl and Big 12 / Cotton Bowl assumption is wrong... well pretty much anything could happen in the Cotton Bowl.
Based on all this analysis, here are my projections for the Big Ten Bowl assignments. In the case where the Big Ten in NOT in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State beats Wisconsin (68% chance):
Ohio State: Playoffs
Penn State: Rose Bowl
Wisconsin: Citrus or Orange Bowl
Minnesota: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Michigan: Gator Bowl
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
MSU: Quicklane Bowl
If Wisconsin does upset OSU (4%)
Ohio State: Playoffs
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl
Penn State: Orange Bowl
Minnesota: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Michigan: Gator Bowl
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
MSU: Quicklane Bowl
OR (5%)
Ohio State: Playoffs
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl
Michigan: Citrus Bowl
Penn State: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Minnesota: Gator Bowl
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
MSU: Quicklane Bowl
Penn State went to the Citrus Bowl last year and is very unlikely to go again, and in this case I think Michigan would get the nod in Orlando. Iowa is also an interesting case, because due to the way I read the various bowl "no repeat" rules, Iowa cannot go to either the Outback or Gator Bowl. I have them in the Holiday Bowl by default. That said, due to the problem in placing Penn State into the Citrus Bowl, I wonder if the committee would switch them with Florida and put them into the Orange Bowl either way.
In the cases where the Big Ten does have a team in the Cotton Bowl, I would project (23%):
Ohio State: Playoffs
Penn State: Rose Bowl / Cotton Bowl
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl / Cotton Bowl
Michigan: Citrus Bowl
Minnesota: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Indiana: Gator Bowl
MSU: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
As a side note, there are rumors out there that the Music City Bowl would cut a deal with the Gator Bowl to get Indiana due to the proximity of Bloomington to Nashville. I would not rule this out.
Finally, just to close things out, I did calculate both my algorithm and the FPI's picks as a function of the Vegas line. Those charts are shown below
If some of my key assumptions are wrong, these odds would change. For example, if the committee is secretly planning to send the Big 12 winner to the Playoffs over Utah, the result of the Pac-12 Championship game does not matter. In this case, there is a 69% chance that the Big 10 would be placed into the the Cotton Bowl (and therefore MSU goes to the Pinstripe Bowl).
In contrast, however, if the committee likes Utah more that I think and does not drop them out of the NY6 even with a loss, then the odds of the the Big 10 being placed into the the Cotton Bowl (and therefore MSU in the Pinstripe Bowl) essentially drop to zero, as long as my theory that the Cotton Bowl has a preference for a Big 12 team. Then again, if my Florida / Orange Bowl and Big 12 / Cotton Bowl assumption is wrong... well pretty much anything could happen in the Cotton Bowl.
Based on all this analysis, here are my projections for the Big Ten Bowl assignments. In the case where the Big Ten in NOT in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State beats Wisconsin (68% chance):
Ohio State: Playoffs
Penn State: Rose Bowl
Wisconsin: Citrus or Orange Bowl
Minnesota: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Michigan: Gator Bowl
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
MSU: Quicklane Bowl
If Wisconsin does upset OSU (4%)
Ohio State: Playoffs
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl
Penn State: Orange Bowl
Minnesota: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Michigan: Gator Bowl
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
MSU: Quicklane Bowl
OR (5%)
Ohio State: Playoffs
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl
Michigan: Citrus Bowl
Penn State: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Minnesota: Gator Bowl
Indiana: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
MSU: Quicklane Bowl
Penn State went to the Citrus Bowl last year and is very unlikely to go again, and in this case I think Michigan would get the nod in Orlando. Iowa is also an interesting case, because due to the way I read the various bowl "no repeat" rules, Iowa cannot go to either the Outback or Gator Bowl. I have them in the Holiday Bowl by default. That said, due to the problem in placing Penn State into the Citrus Bowl, I wonder if the committee would switch them with Florida and put them into the Orange Bowl either way.
In the cases where the Big Ten does have a team in the Cotton Bowl, I would project (23%):
Ohio State: Playoffs
Penn State: Rose Bowl / Cotton Bowl
Wisconsin: Rose Bowl / Cotton Bowl
Michigan: Citrus Bowl
Minnesota: Outback Bowl
Iowa: Holiday Bowl
Indiana: Gator Bowl
MSU: Pinstripe Bowl
Illinois: Redbox Bowl
As a side note, there are rumors out there that the Music City Bowl would cut a deal with the Gator Bowl to get Indiana due to the proximity of Bloomington to Nashville. I would not rule this out.
Finally, just to close things out, I did calculate both my algorithm and the FPI's picks as a function of the Vegas line. Those charts are shown below
There are no recommended bets this weekend, but my algorithm does have a very interesting sole upset pick, and that is Georgia over LSU. Otherwise both of the computers seem to think that most of the favored teams with not cover. It could be an interesting weekend.
That does it for now. As always, enjoy, and Go Green.
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