Skip to main content

2019 Final NY6 Bowl Prediction

With last night's totally not at all surprising results, the projection of the NY6 seems pretty clear at this point.  The main question is whether OSU or LSU is #1.  Honestly, I don't actually care about this question that much, but I will go with LSU.  That would make the pairing likely to be:

Peach Bowl: #1 LSU vs. #4 Oklahoma
Fiesta Bowl: #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson

The Fiesta Bowl pairing is a rematch of the Fiesta Bowl from 3 years ago, which is reason enough for me to NOT place them like this, but I guess we we see.  Either way, it seems 99% sure that this is the Top 4, however the committee decides to pair them or where they send them.  As for the rest of the NY6, it seems pretty obvious:

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs. Florida
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Baylor
Cotton Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Memphis

As for the rest of the Big Ten Bowls, it is likely as follows:

Citrus Bowl: Michigan (vs. Alabama or Auburn)
Outback Bowl: Minnesota (vs. Auburn or Alabama)
Holiday Bowl: Iowa
Gator Bowl: Indiana
Pinstripe Bowl: MSU vs. Louisville 
Redbox Bowl: Illinois

I am going to change my pick of MSU's opponent from Pitt to Louisville, but this is not a "strong" prediction.  As I looked more carefully at the ACC Bowl Line-up, Pitt seems likely to go to the Belk Bowl (as both VA Tech and Wake have been there recently) and I think the VA Tech is more likely to go to the Music City Bowl as it seems like a "better" bowl.  That leaves Louisville and Wake Forest as the most likely options, and Louisville is the more northern school with fans less likely to be scared off by NYC in the winter.

So, the only question left is what curve ball could the committee throw to potentially mess this up?  Here are some possibilities:

1) If somehow Wisconsin or Penn State winds up in the Orange Bowl

This would be weird, but I suppose it's possible.  Honestly, the Rose Bowl pick is a bit up in the air and I suppose it is possible that they could pick up Wisconsin instead of Penn State.  MSU actually has been to Pasadena more recently than the Badgers.  Either way, I was assuming the other team would wind up in the Cotton Bowl, so it doesn't really matter.

However, for the Big Ten to get the Orange Bowl, the non-Rose Bowl participant would need to finish in the standings above either Florida or Georgia.  I just don't see that happening.  But, if it does, the Citrus Bowl reverts to an ACC Bowl, which messes with the line up listed above and it likely becomes:

Outback Bowl: Minnesota 
Holiday Bowl: Iowa or Michigan
Gator Bowl: Michigan or Indiana
Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana or MSU
Redbox Bowl: Illinois or Iowa
Quicklane Bowl: MSU or Illinois

In this case, the Holiday Bowl hold the key.  If they pick Iowa, I see MSU winding up in the Quicklane Bowl after all.  But, in the more likely scenario that they pick Michigan, MSU still winds up in NYC

2) If somehow Wisconsin (or Penn State) falls out of the NY6

This could possible happen if Utah only falls a few slots, in which case Utah would wind up in the Cotton Bowl.  Another possible outcome is that Wisconsin drops below Auburn in the standings, in which case Auburn would get sent to the Cotton Bowl.  But, 4 SEC teams in the NY6 would make all of the other SEC Bowls less competitive, which seems bad.  In a really odd scenario, Wisconsin winds up in the Rose Bowl and Penn State is randomly dropped below Auburn.  That seems virtually impossible, but you never know...

But, either way, you basically get the same result as #1 above, except Wisconsin is now in the Citrus Bowl

Citrus Bowl: Wisconsin
Outback Bowl: Minnesota 
Holiday Bowl: Iowa or Michigan
Gator Bowl: Michigan or Indiana
Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana or MSU
Redbox Bowl: Illinois or Iowa
Quicklane Bowl: MSU or Illinois

I suppose if Penn State were to fall out of the NY6, you might see something like this:

Citrus Bowl: Michigan
Outback Bowl: Penn State
Holiday Bowl: Iowa 
Gator Bowl: Minnesota
Pinstripe Bowl: Indiana 
Redbox Bowl: Illinois 
Quicklane Bowl: MSU 

This is perhaps the only scenario where MSU would wind up in Detroit and it is very low probability.

So, that is where I am on Sunday morning.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Dr. Green and White Helps You Fill Out Your Bracket (2024 Edition)

For as long as I can remember, I have loved the NCAA Basketball Tournament. I love the bracket. I love the underdogs. I love One Shining Moment. I even love the CBS theme music. As a kid I filled out hand-drawn brackets and scoured the morning newspaper for results of late night games. As I got older, I started tracking scores using a increasing complex set of spreadsheets. Over time, as my analysis became more sophisticated, I began to notice certain patterns to the Madness I have found that I can use modern analytics and computational tools to gain a better understanding of the tournament itself and perhaps even extract some hints as to how the tournament might play out. Last year, I used this analysis to correctly predict that No. 4 seed UConn win the National Title in addition to other notable upsets. There is no foolproof way to dominate your office pool, but it is possible to spot upsets that are more likely than others and teams that are likely to go on a run or flame out early....
Post a Comment
Read more

2024 Week Eight Preview: OK Computer

Playing the first game after a bye week is like waking up from a nap. It is a little tough to predict how the body will respond. If a nap comes at just the right time and lasts for just the right length of time, it can be very refreshing and rejuvenating. But sometimes waking up for a nap can be rough. It can cause a disorienting, groggy feeling like suddenly two plus two equals five and that down is the new up. Based on the way the three weeks prior to the bye week went, last week's break at the midpoint of the season came at exactly the right time for the Spartans. Facing one top five team is challenging enough. Facing two top five teams on consecutive weekends including almost 5,000 miles of travel is something else entirely. But how will the rested Spartans look on the field come Saturday night? It is hard to predict what we are going to get. It is the classic "rest versus rust," million dollar question.  I prefer to be optimistic and to believe that the Spartans will...
Post a Comment
Read more

2024 Week Seven Preview: Intermission

It is hard to believe that we are already halfway through the Michigan State Spartans' 2024 season. The Green and White currently sit at 3-3, having just lost two games straight to teams both ranked in the top three nationally.  Despite the current losing streak, Michigan State is actually slightly ahead of schedule. While the Spartans' schedule currently grades out to be harder than expected when I conducted the analysis this summer (by 0.7 games), Michigan State's current odds to go to a bowl game (46%) are 10 percentage points higher than what I projected.  In Week Seven, Michigan State has drawn a much needed bye. Think about it as an intermission of sorts. The Spartans' mission this weekend is to rest, heal, reflect on the first half of the season, and prepare for back half of the schedule with the goal of qualifying for the bowl game. Michigan State's team and staff may be taking it easy, but data and Vegas never sleep. Today's piece will focus more on the...
Post a Comment
Read more