Quick Stats Update (Post Penn State)

Unfreaking believable!

Full disclosure: I was on tape delay during family time, but I accidentally saw the half-time score. Despite seeing that, I was still oddly optimistic that MSU could pull it out. Then, I watched the game... WOW! Coupled with the loss to Maryland, here is where I have things:

Odds to win / share the B1G Title:

1. MSU = 73%

2. Maryland = 72%

3. Wisconsin = 45%

4. Illinois = 17%

Both MSU and Maryland project to be about a 4-point favorite on Senior Day, so both teams have a roughly 65% chance to win. My, have things changed over the past few days!

As for the BTT, MSU has now locked in a double bye. I just updated the tie-breakers and I can give good probabilities for seeding:

1-seed: 51%

2-seed: 32%

3-seed: 14%

4-seed: 3%

If MSU beat OSU, the odds for the 1-seed go up to ~70%.

MSU basically now will win any 1-1 tie-breaker with Maryland, as MSU has an equal or better record against Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, and Iowa. So, the only way that MSU would lose the 1-seed is if:

1) MSU end up in a 3-way tie with Wisconsin and Maryland

2) MSU winds up in a tie with just Wisconsin and Maryland is in 3rd alone

In both cases, Wisconsin gets the 1-seed, as they went 1-0 against the Twerps. That said, if all the favorites win, the updated projected standings (with tiebreakers) are:

1. MSU (14-6)

2. Maryland (14-6)

3. Illinois (13-7)

4. Wisconsin (13-7)

5. Penn State (12-8)

6. Iowa (11-9)

7. Ohio State (11-9)

8. Michigan (10-10)

9. Purdue (10-10)

10. Rutgers (10-10)

11. Indiana (10-10)

12. Minnesota (8-12)

13. Northwestern (2-18)

14. Nebraska (2-18)

Finally, if I use these final standing and simulate the Big Ten Tournament, I get:

1. MSU = 23%

2. Maryland = 17%

7. Ohio State = 13% (again, Kenpom LOVES the Buckeyes...)

4. Wisconsin = 9%

3. Illinois = 8%

8. Michigan = 8%

6. Iowa = 7%

5. Penn State = 6%

9. Purdue = 3%

11. Indiana = 3%

12. Minnesota = 2%

10. Rutgers = 2%

13. Northwestern = LOL

14. Nebraska = LOL

Finally, I should also point out that MSU just moved up to #6 in Kenpom, which is the historical cut-off for the majority of the eventual National Champions.

Sunday and the days after could be special in East Lansing, once again.

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