2021 Championship Week Recap: Pop the Cork

This weekend, champions were crowned, champagne was uncorked, dreams were crushed, and four teams have advanced to the College Football Playoffs with a chance to win a National Championship. Eight other teams, by virtue of either a conference title or a top 10 finish, were selected to play in one of the other New Year’s Six bowls. Michigan State University was one of those teams.

When the dust settled, the Spartans have been matched with the Pittsburgh Panthers in the Peach Bowl. It will mark the first time for the Spartans to appear in the New Year’s Six since the playoff appearance following the 2015 season.

If someone were to have suggested back in August that the Green and White were to be in this position, it would have triggered a round of mandatory drug testing. Coach Mel Tucker, in just two years, took a team that was predicted to win just four or five games and to finish last in the Big Ten East to the New Year’s Six. That accomplishment in nothing short of incredible. There is plenty of celebrating to be done in East Lansing.

Win or lose in Atlanta, and the future looks very bright for the Spartans. The MSU Athletic Department believes that they have found their man in Coach Mel Tucker and they decided to show him the money. Michigan State has a young and energetic head man who has shown that he can compete and beat the best teams in the conference. Mel has swagger. MSU has swagger. Recruits are taking notice.

As for the rest of the Big Ten East, Ohio State under Ryan Day showed some potential weakness in 2021. Meanwhile James Franklin and Jim Harbaugh appear to be staying in State College and Ann Arbor. As for the long term prospects for those two gentlemen, let's just say that past performance is the most accurate predictor of future performance. I expect the next decade or two to resemble the past decade or two for those two programs.

So while some programs are more likely to fade from fizzy to flat, Michigan State appears to be on the rise. While this year will be Coach Mel Tucker's first trip to the New Year's Six, it likely won't be his last. If everything goes right, there might be bigger and better celebrations in East Lansing in mid-January.

Championship Week Results

Figure 1 below shows the results of the 11 games played in this final week prior to the bowl season.

Figure 1: Results of Championship Week showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

With just 11 games, the results are fairly clear. A total of four teams overachieved (Michigan, Utah, Pitt, and Cal) while six of the 11 games ended in an upset. Those upsets are summarized below in Table 1 in relation to the predictions made by the computers.

Table 1: Upsets based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections for Championship Week

The total number of upsets was slightly higher than the 4.1 plus-or-minus 1.6 upsets that the weekly simulation predicted. The biggest upset relative to the spread was Baylor's win over Oklahoma State. 

The computers' predictions had some pop during Championship Week. My algorithm was two-of-three and the FPI got its sole prediction correct. This brings the year-to-date performance of both computers to just under 40 percent, which approaches respectability.

The picks against the spread for the week were sparse but Table 2 summarizes the results.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Championship Week.

This analysis is as simple as it gets. My computer made just one pick, and it was wrong. But my machine still ended up 60-35 (63 percent) for the year. The FPI was only 56-58 (49 percent) and the combined predictions of both computers went 97-82 (54 percent) which is consistent with the historical performance.

Overall, my algorithm was 5-6 (45 percent) against the spread (ATS) for the week, while the FPI was a game better at 6-5 (55 percent). Year-to-date, my computer is 360-371 (49.2 percent) while the FPI is slight better at 364-367 (49.8 percent).

Quick Bowl Preview

On Sunday, ESPN rolled out the six match-ups that will make up the playoffs and the rest of the New Year's Six. Throughout the afternoon and evening the full slate of 42 bowl games that are planed to cap off the 2021 season were announced. As a recap, the New Year's Six ended up as follows.

• Peach Bowl (12/30): Michigan State (+3.5) versus Pittsburgh
• Cotton Bowl (12/31): No. 1 Alabama (-13) versus No. 4 Cincinnati
• Orange Bowl (12/31): No. 2 Michigan (+7.5) versus No. 3 Georgia
• Rose Bowl (1/1): Ohio State (-7) versus Utah
• Sugar Bowl (1/1): Ole Miss (-2) versus Baylor
• Fiesta Bowl (1/1): Notre Dame (-1.5) versus Oklahoma State

Note that this line-up is precisely what I predicted on Sunday morning. The committee was literally inches away from a major problem. Had Oklahoma State beaten Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game, there would have been a debate between Cincinnati and Oklahoma State for the fourth and final spot in the playoffs. 

My gut feeling is that the Bearcats would have lost out. In this scenario, I also think Michigan State would have wound up in the Fiesta Bowl facing Notre Dame had Oklahoma State converted on fourth and goal.

But as it stands, the Spartans are head for Atlanta and have opened as an underdog to the Panther by just over a field goal. The historical odds suggest that the Green and White have a 40 percent chance to be celebrating in Atlanta on New Year's Eve. 

As for the rest of the Big Ten, the six remaining bowl eligible teams will be participating in the following bowls:

• Guaranteed Rate Bowl (12/28): Minnesota (-6.5) versus West Virginia
• Pinstripe Bowl (12/29): Maryland (+3) versus Virginia Tech
• Las Vegas Bowl (12/30): Wisconsin (-7) versus Arizona State 
• Music City Bowl (12/30): Purdue (-2.5) versus Tennessee
• Citrus Bowl (1/1): Iowa (-1.5) versus Kentucky
• Outback Bowl (1/1): Penn State (-4) versus Arkansas

In the nine total bowl games, the Big Ten has opened as a favorite in six of game. Only Michigan, Michigan State, and Maryland are underdogs.

As a final note, I will say that the order of Big Ten team selection was odd this year. Penn State getting the Outback Bowl was very generous, and Minnesota (8-4) falling to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl behind Maryland (6-6) seems like a bit of a slight. That said, the Pinstripe Bowl likely prefers a more "East Coast" team and the Terrapins do fit that bill.

Against all odds, we have reach bowl season. I will be back to provide some advice of those game as well. Until then, enjoy, and Go State, beat the Panthers!