Here is a list of things that I do not want to talk about today: whether to defend or foul when up by three points, permitter switching, turnovers, defensive rebounding, free throw shooting, and overtime periods. These topics would only serve to reelevate my blood pressure to unsafe levels.
Therefore, I will only say this. The Michigan State Spartans had the game in Iowa City won, but then an incredibly long series of very unlucky events took place that resulted in a loss. Probability can be cruel.
As a result, there is still a high level of uncertainty regarding how the 2022-23 season will play out. As always, I will lean on a series of mathematical tools to better understand that uncertainty.
Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds
Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 90% of the regular season now complete.
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| Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 27, 2023. |
Purdue took a loss to Indiana over the weekend, but with 13 wins and with all other Big Ten teams with at least seven losses, the Boilermakers have officially clinched at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Table 1 also reminds us that there are eight other Big Ten teams with either seven or eight losses.
Of those eight teams, the four teams at 11-7 all still have a non-zero chance to grab a share of the Big Ten title if those teams can win out and if Purdue loses out. As Table 2 below shows, those odds are slim and range from just 0.7% to 2.3%.
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| Table 2: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 27, 2023. |
Table 3 below shows the updated expected win table for the Big Ten regular season.
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| Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 27, 2023 |
It seems clear by now that Michigan State's game against Minnesota will not be rescheduled and the Spartans will only play 19 Big Ten games. As a result, expected wins are no longer an apples-to-apples comparison. But, Table 3 does provide a good view of which teams are more or less likely to win out.
Big Ten Tournament Odds
At this point in the season, the Michigan State Spartans are simply playing for seeding, first in the Big Ten Tournament and eventually in the NCAA Tournament. It makes sense to also turn our focus in that direction.
Despite the fact that there are only a total of 14 Big Ten regular season games left, there are still a large number of ways that the season can play out. In fact, as on Monday, Feb. 27, there are exactly 16,384 difference outcomes.
Table 4 shows the updated Big Ten Tournament seed matrix.
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| Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb. 27, 2023. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update last week |
Even with just a week to go, there is still very little clarity in the Big Ten Tournament seeding. Michigan State still has a shot at the No. 3 seed (0.1%) but could drop all the way down to the No. 12 seed. A team such as Iowa could land anywhere from the No. 2 seed to the No. 12 seed. The only real certainty is that Purdue is likely to get the No. 1 seed while Ohio State and Minnesota are locked into the No. 13 and No. 14 seeds.
With "just" over 16,000 possible scenarios remaining, it becomes much easier to calculate the odds of every remaining possibility rather than rely on simulation to sample the possible scenarios. To this end, Table 5 summarizes the odds for Michigan State's Big Ten Tournament seed, depending on the outcome of the remaining two contests.
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| Table 5: Breakdown of Michigan State Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as a function of the remaining game results. |
If the Spartans can rebound from the heartbreaking loss in Iowa City and avoid an upset in the final two games, Michigan State will most likely earn the No. 6 seed in the Big Ten Tournament, although the No. 5 and No. 7 seeds would also be in play depending on the results of the other 13 games this week.
In this scenario, Michigan State would most likely face the No. 11 seed on Thursday, which at this point could realistically be Nebraska, Wisconsin, or Penn State. If the Spartans were to beat the No. 11 seed, the next opponent would be the No. 3 seed. In this subset of scenarios, Michigan (23%), Rutgers (22%), and Indiana (20%) are the most likely quarterfinals opponents.
If Michigan State wins out and earns the No. 5 seed, the Spartans would face the No. 12 seed in the first game. A win in this contest would result in a quarterfinals contest on Friday with the No. 4 seed. In these scenarios Northwestern (26%) is the most likely next opponent with Indiana (23%) and Maryland (22%) both as strong possibilities.
If Michigan State wins out and earns the No. 7 seed, the Spartans will most likely face No. 10 Wisconsin (62% odds) on Thursday. In these scenarios, the Friday opponent would be the No. 2 seed, which is most likely Maryland (38%) in this subset of scenarios.
Based on the projected point spreads in the Spartans' final two games, winning both games is the most likely outcome (45%), but the odds to win just one of the final two games is almost as likely (44%). In these scenarios, it does matter if Michigan State beats Nebraska or Ohio State, the result is the same: Michigan State would most like earn the No. 9 seed.
Interestingly, if Michigan State were to lose both games (10% odds), the No. 9 seed is still the most likely destination. The biggest difference between the 1-1 and the 0-2 finish is that the Spartans have better odds to earn the No. 8 seed at 10-9 and the No. 10 seed at 9-10 in conference play.
In any event, if Michigan State were to lose one or both of the remaining Big Ten games, Illinois (35%) becomes the most likely first opponent with Rutgers (20%) also a strong possibility. Purdue (97%) would almost certainly be the Friday opponent were the Spartans to make it that far.
For the record, Table 6 below shows the current odds for each team to win the Big Ten Tournament.
Ironically, Michigan State actually improved overall to No. 28 according to Kenpom. Some of the Spartans' previous opponents (such as Villanova and Kentucky) are playing better recently and other teams near Michigan State in the rankings (such as Auburn and Rutgers) have fallen in these rankings.
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| Table 6: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Feb 27, 2023. |
Paths to a Double Bye
Table 5 also shows that the Spartans retain a 4.5% chance at a top-four Big Ten finish and a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Obviously, Michigan State would need to beat both Nebraska and Ohio State in order for this to happen. The Spartans would also need quite a bit of help.
Purdue is already locked into a top-four spot, and there are eight other teams who could theoretically finish in the top four. If Michigan State finishes at 11-8, no more than two other Big Ten teams can finish at 12-8 or better for the Spartans to be able to claim one of the remaining three spots.
Maryland, Indiana, Michigan, and Northwestern all just need one more win to cross this threshold. Rutgers, Iowa, and Illinois would all need to win both of their final two games.
If my math is correct, there are a total of 80 unique scenarios where the Spartans finish with the No. 3 or No. 4 seed, so there are still a lot of possibilities. The most likely set of scenarios involve:
- Indiana beating both Iowa (+5) (eliminated the Hawkeyes from consideration) and Michigan (+4.5).
- Illinois beating Michigan (+3) to eliminate the Wolverines but losing at Purdue (-9)
- Maryland losing both at Ohio State (+2.5) and at Penn State (+1.5) to fall out of the running
- Either Northwestern beating Rutgers (-4) on the road or Penn State (+2.5) beating Northwestern in Evanston
The first two bullets are probable based on the projected spreads. Maryland will likely be favored on the road in the final two games, but there is a solid 18% chance that the Terrapins could lose both. As for the final bullet point, there is roughly a 75% chance that one or both of those scenarios come to pass.
When taken together, I can say with confidence that the odds for Michigan State to finish the conference in the top four are long, they are still better than the odds of hitting five three-points shots in the final 40 seconds of a basketball game, just to give a completely random example.
Quick Bracketology Update
The Spartans missed out on a major opportunity on Saturday to claim another "quad one" win in Iowa City. As a result, the Spartans continue to linger near the No. 8 and No. 9 seed lines for the NCAA Tournament. CBS's Jerry Palm still has Michigan State as a No. 7 seed, which is consistent with the average on the Bracket Matrix website.
My seeding algorithm is not quite as generous. My calculations now project Michigan State as a No. 9 seed, with the potential to slide back up to a No. 7 seed with a strong finish to the season. I believe that a No. 6 seed (or better) is still possible with a strong finish. But I also think that the Spartans need one more win total in order to have a stress-free Selection Sunday.
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