MSU Hoops Odds Update: Moving Forward

In the post-game press conference following Saturday's loss at Michigan, Spartans' head coach Tom Izzo emphasized that while no member of the Michigan State community will even forget the events of Feb. 13, 2023 it is important to try move forward together and find some sense of “normalcy.” 

In the grand scheme of things, college basketball is not that important. After all, it is just a game played by kids, a majority of whom are not legally old enough to buy alcohol. At the same time, sports can act as an escape and as an opportunity for people to come together and unite for a common cause. Even though that cause is not important, it can be a source of solace and ultimately, healing.

Michigan State lost to Michigan on Saturday. The season continues to move forward. Where do the Spartans stand following that loss? Let's dig into the numbers and find out. Together.

Updated Big Ten Standing, Wins, and Odds

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings with 79% of the regular season now complete.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 20, 2023.

The last time we officially checked the enhanced Big Ten standings, Purdue had a commanding three game lead in the loss column. Now, after having lost two of the last three games, the Boilermakers (13-4) are just a game-and-a-half ahead of the second place Northwestern Wildcats (11-5), who now lead the Big Ten in "luck" at +2.56 games.

Indiana (10-6) is one additional game back with six additional teams (including Michigan State) sitting with exactly seven conference losses. Northwestern and Indiana have two more road wins than home losses (+2), while most of the teams with seven losses are just +1. The only exception is the Michigan Wolverines, who are at zero in this metric.

More information on the Big Ten race can be gleamed from an analysis of expected wins. Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten win matrix as of Feb. 19 which is based on the results of a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation which uses Kenpom efficiencies to derive the odds for all remaining Big Ten games.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 20, 2023

Despite the recent slippage, Purdue (15.28) still has just over a 2.5 game lead in expected wins. Northwestern (12.64) is currently the only team (other than Purdue) where 13 wins or more are more likely than not. 

Indiana (12.09), Maryland (11.75), and Rutgers (11.75) project to finish with 12 wins, while Iowa (11.24), Michigan State (11.19), Illinois (11.06), and Michigan (10.58) have expected win totals that round to 11 wins. Note that this analysis is assuming that the Spartans will reschedule the postponed home game against Minnesota.

Table 3 gives the current Big Ten regular season championship odds.

Table 3: Updated odds to win or share the Big Ten title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 20, 2023.

Despite the tightening in the standings, Purdue still has a 99% chance to win or share the regular season title. Note that a shared title only occurs in a little over 5% of the simulated seasons.

Also note that Michigan State's conference championship odds are non-zero. My simulation currently gives the Green and White a 1-in-850 shot to steal a (almost certainly) co-championship.

Strength of Schedule Update

Figure 1 below shows the updated strengths of schedule for the remainder of the Big Ten schedule.

Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule (SoS) for the remaining conference games as of Feb. 20, 2023. SoS is calculated as the expected win percentage an average high-major team would have if they were to play each team's remaining schedule.

With only two weeks remaining in the regular season, Michigan State has one of the four easiest remaining schedules. As Figure 1 indicates, Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska all have essentially equally difficult schedules in the home stretch.

As Table 1 shows, Michigan State is currently tied in the loss column with both Rutgers and Maryland. The fact that all three teams have an equally challenging remaining schedule is encouraging for the Spartans. 

The other encouraging fact is that Michigan State has a clear schedule advantage over the other teams with seven conference losses. The Spartans have a moderate schedule advantage over Illinois and Iowa and a large advantage over Michigan.

Furthermore, while Northwestern and Indiana are both above Michigan State in the standings, those two teams have very difficult remaining conference schedules. The bottom line is that there is a clear opportunity for the Spartans to finish in the upper echelon of the Big Ten, if they can finish strong.

For reference, Figure 2 below shows the overall strength of schedule data for each team, including the raw calculations and the corrected value (which attempts to adjust for the benefit or penalty that each team gets for not having the chance to play themselves). 

Figure 2: Updated Big Ten overall strengths of schedule using the raw values (left) and the corrected values (right) which accounts for the benefit (or penalty) for a team to not need to play themselves.

Michigan State Schedule and Outlook

Figure 3 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games, excluding the potentially rescheduled game against Minnesota.

Figure 3: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

As the Figure shows, Michigan State currently projects to be a slight underdog at Iowa, the favorite at Nebraska and at home against Ohio State, and Tuesday's game against Indiana is a toss-up. 

The cumulative odds suggest that the Spartans will most likely split the final four games and finish the regular season at 10-9, if the Minnesota game is not rescheduled. If the Minnesota game is rescheduled, the numbers suggest that Michigan State would be a heavy favorite with a 95% chance of a victory in that contest.

But, a lot of things can happen in the final four or five games. Under the current circumstances, the outcome of the remaining four games is even more unpredictable.

Big Ten Tournament Odds

If the season ended today, that would be weird, because there are still 29 Big Ten conference games left. Instead, we can accurately project the odds that each team will earn each possible seed in the Big Ten Tournament using simulation.

Table 4 below provides these odds.

Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of Feb. 20, 2023. The numbers in parentheses are the changes since the previous update last week

As Table 4 shows, there are still a huge number of possible outcomes as far as Big Ten Tournament seeding. Purdue is almost certainly going to earn the No. 1 seed, and Northwestern is now likely to also earn a top four spot and double bye.

Ohio State and Minnesota are both locked into the bottom four and two of Wisconsin, Penn State, and Nebraska will likely join them. Everything else is very much up in the air.

Michigan State is currently projected to earn the No. 7 or No. 8 seed, and the odds for the No. 4 to the No. 9 seed are all between 10% and 18%.

It is a little easier to see where the Spartans will land in the Big Ten Tournament if we break down the seeding possibilities based on Michigan State's final record. In addition, I also ran simulations in the situation where Michigan State does not reschedule the game against Minnesota. 

In these scenarios, the Spartans would only play 19 conference games. In this situation, it is easiest to compare the data based on the total number of losses for Michigan State at the end of the season. Figure 4 below shows the seeding odds if Michigan State were to run the table (finish with just seven losses) or lose just one more game (finish at either 12-8 or 11-8).

Figure 4: Distribution of Michigan State's 2023 Big Ten Tournament seed based on the number of final conference losses and considering if the Minnesota game is rescheduled or not.

As we can see, if the Spartans win out (the left bar chart), playing or not playing the Minnesota game does not make much difference. Michigan State would almost certainly finish in the top four of the conference and the tournament double bye which comes with that finish. Skipping the Minnesota game decreases the odds for a No. 2 seed and makes a No. 4 and No. 5 seed slightly more likely, but only by a few percentage points.

If Michigan State finishes with just one more loss (the right bar chart), the impact is larger. In this scenario, not rescheduling the Minnesota game is likely to cost the Spartans one seed. The odds of earning a double bye drop from 36% to just 12%. 

That said, in this scenario Michigan State is more likely to wind up on the opposite side of the bracket as likely No. 1 seed Purdue by not playing Minnesota. Those odds move from 31% to 55% if the game is not made up.

Figure 5 shows the seeding odds in the scenarios where Michigan State loses nine or 10 games.

Figure 5: Distribution of Michigan State's 2023 Big Ten Tournament seed based on the number of final conference losses and considering if the Minnesota game is rescheduled or not.

If the Spartans finish the regular season with nine losses (11-9 or 10-9) or ten losses (10-10 or 9-10), the impact is once again a loss of one seed position. In these scenarios, the double bye is off the table and the danger of falling into the bottom four is small.

In these scenarios, the best outcome is for Michigan State to draw a No. 6, No. 7, or No. 10 seed to avoid likely No. 1 seed Purdue as long as possible. In the nine-lose scenario, that means that it is better to play Minnesota while in the 10-loss scenario, that means not playing Minnesota is best.

Figure 6 shows the seeding odds where Michigan State loses 11 games, which is essentially the disaster scenario of losing all the remaining games or just beating Minnesota if the game is rescheduled.

Figure 6: Distribution of Michigan State's 2023 Big Ten Tournament seed based on the number of final conference losses and considering if the Minnesota game is rescheduled or not.

The bottom line here is that if Michigan State were to go on a losing streak, a chance of beating Minnesota would likely save the Spartans from the bottom four.

Figure 7 shows the odds for the Spartan's first opponent in the Big Ten Tournament, with and without scheduling the game against Minnesota.

Figure 7: Odds each team will be Michigan State's first opponent in the 2023 Big Ten Basketball Tournament

If Michigan State fans would like another crack at the Wolverines in a situation where a win for the Green and White would likely end Michigan's dreams for a NCAA Tournament bid, the current numbers suggest that is a strong possibility. The Wolverines are currently the Spartans' most likely first Big Ten Tournament opponent, even if those odds are below 20%.

Finally, Table 5 below shows the updated odds for each team to advance and potentially win the Big Ten Tournament.

Table 5: Odds for each Big Ten team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, as of Feb 20, 2023.

Overall, the Big Ten Tournament odds are similar to what we have seen over the past month with Purdue still the odds-on favorite. Michigan State's odds did increase slightly this week to a tick over five percent.