2023 Week 3 Recap: Listing

Every college football season is like an adventure at sea. Some years (like 2021) the water is calm, the sun is warm, and the sailing is smooth. Other years (such as 2022), the sea is rough, the wind is fierce, and the sailors barely make it back to shore alive.

Then, there are years like this year. The weather report for the year identified some big storms on the horizon, but the first leg of the journey was calmer than expected. This led some to believe that the journey might not be as harrowing as expected.

But last week a storm blew up out of nowhere and lightning struck the HMS Spartan. The captain was knocked overboard and into the abyss. Then, the wind kicked up with the force of an angry pack of dogs, ravaging the boat. Now, the boat is taking on water and listing badly to one side.

It feels like the Michigan State football program is at an unexpected crossroad. The Mel Tucker saga, coupled with this weekend's beat down at the paws of the Washington Huskies, has players and fans alike reeling. The water level is rising, and their chins are barely above the surface.

But all is not yet lost. The seas are a bit calmer over the next few weeks, which will give the remaining coaches and player leaders a chance to grab a bucket and see if they can right the ship. The expectation at the beginning of this journey was to show progress by simply staying above water and becoming bowl eligible. That goal is still attainable, but a lot of work needs to be done and several holes need to be plugged.

The Spartans' performance over the next three games will likely decide the fate of this journey and of the immediate future of the Michigan State program. A hurricane warning has already been issued for the back half of the schedule. The Spartans need to make progress and accumulate a few more wins now, while they still can.

If he is smart, Mel Tucker is already listing his house in East Lansing for sale. If the boat sinks over the next weeks, not only will a lot more coaches be exploring real estate listings, but several players might add their names to the transfer portal list. If that happens, the Spartans will essentially be starting over from scratch, and the immediate future of the program will be lost at sea.

Week Three Betting Results

Let's go ahead and review the results of last week's bad betting advice, starting with the overview summary of the action shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Results of Week Three showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

This week I count a total of eight teams which beat the spread by more than 14 points: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington, LSU, Liberty, Fresno State, TCU, and Syracuse. A total of five team underachieved by more than two touchdowns yet still won: Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, Florida State, and Kansas. That group notably includes the top three teams in both major polls as well as the team won has won six of the last 14 National Titles.

A total of 13 teams underachieved enough to wind up on the upset list. Those teams are shown below in Table 1 along with a comparison with the upset predictions from earlier in the week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Three based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

ESPN's Football Power Index sat out this week, while my computer got two of its three picks correct thanks to UNLV and West Virginia. This performance brings my computer's tally for the year to 3-6 (33%) which is not great but still better than the FPI's record of 2-9 (18%).

It was a tough week for the Big 12, as Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State all fell as the favored team. BYU and West Virginia did help to offset the damage by scoring their own upset wins. Other notable upsets include Army over Texas San Antonio and Florida over Tennessee.

Table 2 is a listing of the computers' picks against the spread (ATS) in Week Three.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the opening spread in Week Three.

After a strong Week Two performance, the computers hit some rough water with the ATS picks this week. My computer only got Ole Miss and Rutgers correct (2-4, 33%) while the FPI was only correct on Syracuse and Nevada (2-7, 22%).  

For the year, my suggested bets are still above water at .500 at 7-6 (54%) while the FPI is having another terrible year at 11-20 (36%) year-to-date. Both computers were also sub-.500 when all picks for the week were considered. My computer went 21-31 (43%) for the week and is 48-53 (48%) year-to-date. The FPI went 26-28 (48%) in Week Three and is 49-52 (49%) year-to-date overall.

Table 3 below gives the results of last week's point total bets.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under" bets) in Week Three.

Even the usually very reliable over/under bets struggled this week. The total set of recommended bets went just 12-15 (44%) while the locks were right at .500 (2-2). For the year, however, the recommended bets in total remain above water at 45-50 (53%) while the locks are at 11-6 (65%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Three, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Three

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Three

My computer continues to be extremely high on the teams at the top of the Big Ten East. Ohio State (No. 2 in my power rankings), No. 4 Penn State, and No. 6 Michigan are the clear favorites in the division with the Buckeyes (38%) maintaining a slight edge over the Nittany Lions (31%) and the Wolverines (23%). All three teams have a 19% chance or better to make the College Football Playoffs.

The next best team in the East, believe it or not, might be Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights notched another good win this week versus Virginia Tech and are ranked No. 24 in my power rankings. The odds for the Scarlet Knights to make a surprise trip to Indianapolis are at 6%, which is significantly better than the odds for No. 48 Maryland (1.2%), No. 52 Michigan State (0.8%), and No. 90 Indiana (1-in-10,000).

There were no huge surprises in the Big Ten West this week. Minnesota, Purdue, Northwestern, and Illinois all lost and failed to cover while Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nebraska all won and covered.

According to my computer, No. 30 Iowa (29%) still has the best odds to win the division with No. 36 Wisconsin (25%) not far behind. No. 45 Minnesota (18%) is also within shouting range. The rest of the Big Ten West is ranked between No. 59 and No. 63 in my power rankings with between a 6% and 9% chance to advance to the Big Ten Championship game.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

This weekend's soul-crushing loss to Washington did not do the Spartans any favors in the eyes of my computer. Michigan State dropped from No. 31 to No. 52 in my power rankings, and the expected number of regular season wins dropped by over a full game down to 5.26. The odds to reach a Bowl Game have dipped under water to 42%

There was evidence to think that the Spartans might be slightly better than expected after two weeks. Now the prospects look slightly negative relative to the preseason numbers.

What is consistent, however, it that Michigan State still has the projected second hardest schedule in the nation behind only Stanford as well as the toughest Big Ten conference schedule.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining nine games. As a reference, the projected odds from last week and the preseason are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week One and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Of the remaining games, only the home game against Nebraska (+4.5) and the road game at Indiana (+5) project to be smooth sailing (relatively). My computer does like the Spartans at home next weekend against Maryland (+2), but the actual line appears to have opened with the Terrapins as 5.5-point favorites.

As for the other the other six games, the contests against Michigan (-11.5), Penn State (-15), and at Ohio State (-20) will require a battening down of the hatches, but the three road games at Iowa, Rutgers, and Minnesota are interesting. My computer projects the Spartans to be an underdog in all three games, but the games at Minnesota (-3.5) and Iowa (-6.5) both project to have spreads under a touchdown.

Furthermore, as mentioned before, my computer is very high on Rutgers, so much so that the game in Piscataway projects as a 10-point loss for the Spartans. If it turns out that my computer is off a bit on this projection, all three of those games could be in reach, as long as the Spartans can find a way to right the ship.

National Overview

Let's take a sail around the rest of the country and check in on each Power Five conference as well as the Group of Five.

It was a strange week in the SEC as the conference traded upsets with the Big 12 (BYU beat Arkansas, while Missouri took out Kansas State) and Vanderbilt stubbed their toe against UNLV.

Georgia and Alabama both failed to cover the spread by a large margin, and Tennessee got upset by Florida. In the West, both LSU and Ole Miss covered easily at Mississippi State and versus Goergia Tech, respectively.

When the dust settled my computer still has No. 9 Georgia with a 62% chance to win the East with No. 31 Florida (16%) as the only other team with greater than a 10% chance. In the West, No. 7 Alabama (34%) has a much slimmer lead over No. 8 Ole Miss (29%), No. 19 Texas A&M (14%), and No. 21 LSU (12%).

As mentioned above, six of the fourteen Big 12 teams were involved in upsets this week, three teams beat up FCS opponents, and two teams played each other (with TCU winning and covering at Houston).  Of the remaining three teams, Oklahoma covered easily against Tulsa, while Kansas and Texas both won but failed to cover against Nevada and Wyoming. 

By Sunday morning, my computer has No. 3 Texas (59% odds to make the conference championship game) and No. 8 Oklahoma (57%) in a virtual dead heat at the top of the standings. Despite the loss at Missouri, No. 13 Kansas State (38%) has the third best odds to advance to the Big 12 Championship Game with No. 25 UCF (14%) and No. 28 Texas Tech (10%, despite the Red Raiders' 1-2 record) as the next two teams in line.

The Pac-12 continues to look strong, especially at the top of the conference. The highlight of the week, unfortunately, was when the team from Seattle went to Big Ten country and put a beat down on a certain Green and White team from East Lansing. This elevated Washington to No. 1 in my power rankings and boosted the Huskies' odds to make the Pac-12 Championship Game to 64%.

No. 11 Oregon State (30%) failed to cover versus San Diego State but remain in second place on my conference odds table ahead of No. 12 UCLA (28%), No. 15 USC (26%), No. 10 Utah (24%), and No. 18 Oregon (18%), none of whom were challenged this week. The bottom of the conference was also established this weekend as Arizona State was shutout by Fresno State and Stanford lost to Sacramento State from the FCS.

The ACC won a miniature version of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge this week as Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, and Syracuse scored wins over Northwestern, Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue. Virgina and Virginia Tech were not as fortunate against Maryland and Rutgers. In the lone conference battle, No. 17 Florida State barely scrapped by against Boston College.

As it now stands, Florida State remains at the top of my odds standings with a 45% chance to advance to the ACC Championship game. No. 16 Miami (36%), No. 23 North Carolina (33%), No. 20 Duke (32%), No. 27 Syracuse (24%), and No. 33 Louisville (16%) are also on the list.

In Group of Five action, No. 22 Tulane had a strong showing in a win over Southern Miss to retain the best odds to reach the New Years Six at 27%. The Green Wave also got a strength of schedule boost as No. 44 South Alabama (who Tulane beat in Week One) dominated Oklahoma State. The Jaguars are fifth on my Group of Five leaderboard with a 7% chance to reach the New Year's Six.

No. 72 Liberty, from Conference USA, also made a statement by blowing out Buffalo on the road. The Flames' odds are up to 12% which is good enough for second place. Toledo (11%) picked up a win over San Jose State, and Fresno State (8%) remained undefeated thanks to a win over Arizona State.

Against all odds, I have reached the end for today. Check back later in the week for my computer's bad betting advice for Week Four.