MSU Hoops Odds Update: Big Ten Tournament Seeding

At the beginning of the Big Ten regular season, there were a total of 140 games on the schedule. Simple math tells us that there were 1x10^42 (or one "tredecillion") different ways in which the full season could play out. That is approximately the number of water molecules in all of the oceans on earth.

That astronomically large number of scenarios could have resulted in any one of 87 billion different brackets for the Big Ten Tournament.

As of March 5, 129 of those 140 games is in the books, leaving just 11 Big Ten games in the regular season. This still leaves 2,048 different scenarios and 966 possible unique Big Ten Tournament brackets that could occur.

In today's update, let's explore the remaining possible Big Ten Tournament scenarios that are still on the table for the Michigan State Spartans (9-9) following Saturday night's loss to Purdue. As always, the full set of data related to the Big Ten race and Big Ten Tournament can be found in the odds and data tracker.

State of the Big Ten Race

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of March 5.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of March 5, 2024.

Saturday's loss to Purdue dropped the Spartans to 0.500 in Big Ten play and into a tie with Minnesota for seventh place in the conference. But with a total of 10 teams with records between 11-7 and 7-11, with two games remaining Michigan State could possibly finish anywhere between tied for third place down to tied for ninth place.

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Odds

For most of the Big Ten season, there are so many possible scenarios that simulation is the only reasonable way to estimate Big Ten Tournament seeding odds. I usually run a million Monte Carlo cycles when I generate the tournament seeding odds.

However, in the final 10 days of the season, the number of possible scenarios reduces enough that it is possible to calculate both the odds and the exact seeding of all (as of today) 2,048 endings to the regular season. 

Table 1 below shows the results of this calculation. In addition to listing the odds for the Spartans' first tournament opponent, Table 1 below also shows Michigan State's most like quarterfinals opponent (if they advance that far).

Table 2: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of March 5, 2024.

At the top of the table, Purdue and Illinois are virtually locked into the No. 1 and No. 2 seed, respectively. Nebraska and Northwestern are the leading candidates for the No. 3 and No. 4 seed. 

Wisconsin has won only two of their last nine games and as a result the Badgers are now trending towards the No. 5 seed. The No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8 seed are most likely in play for Iowa, Michigan State, and Minnesota, but all three teams still have several potential landing spots, including as high as the No. 3 seed for the Hawkeyes and Gophers.

At the bottom end of the conference, Indiana, Penn State and Ohio State are most likely vying for the No. 9 through No. 11 seed. Rutgers and Maryland will most likely start the tournament on Wednesday in the No. 12 versus No. 13 game. Finally, the Michigan Wolverines have already secured the No. 14 in the Big Ten Tournament.

As Table 2 implies, even with just 11 games remaining, there is still a very wide spread in the final seeds for certain teams. Minnesota could wind up with anything from the No. 3 to the No. 10 seed. Indiana could wind up anywhere from the No. 5 seed to the No. 13 seed.

As for Michigan State, the Spartans can still earn anything from the No. 5 to the No. 10 seed. A more detailed breakdown of the possible Big Ten Tournament seeds for the guys in Green and White is shown below in Table 3.

Table 3: Odds for each Big Ten Tournament seed based on the results of Michigan State's final two games

With just two games remaining in the regular season, there are only four ways for the season to play out for Michigan State. The Spartans are projected to be favored against Northwestern by approximately seven points and next weekend at Indiana by five points. 

As table 3 shows, these spread suggest there is about a 50% chance that the Spartans win both games. There are two ways that Michigan State could split the two contests and there is a 41% chance that the Spartans finish the season 10-10. There is only an 8% chance that Michigan State drops the final two games.

If the Spartans win out, the No. 6 seed is the most likely result, but there is also a 38% chance that Michigan State could slip to the No. 7 or No. 8 seed depending on how the other nine games play out. In this scenario, Indiana (22%) and Michigan (18%) are the most likely Thursday opponents.

If Michigan State splits the next two games, the Spartans will earn either the No. 7 or No. 8 seed. In this scenario, it would be better to beat Indiana than Northwestern as the odds to avoid the No. 8 seed are slightly better. In these scenarios, Indiana, Penn State, and Ohio State are the most likely first Big Ten Tournament opponents.

If the Green and White end the season on a five-game losing streak at 9-11, the No. 8 through No. 10 seed are all in play, with the No. 10 seed most likely. In this scenario, Minnesota (42%) in the most likely first opponent. 

Tournament Odds and Optimal Placement

Table 4 below gives the updated total odds for each team to win the Big Ten Tournament.

Table 4: Odds for each team to advance past each round of the Big Ten Tournament.

Despite the fact that Michigan State is trending towards the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, the odds suggest that the Spartans will have the third best odds (6.8%) to win the tournament behind only Illinois (21.9%) and Purdue (50.2%). 

This reality reflects the fact Michigan State is still the third highest ranked Big Ten team in systems such as Kenpom. The Spartans would mostly likely be favored on a neutral court over every Big Ten team except Illinois and Purdue.

As Table 4 indicates, the eventual seeding of the Big Ten Tournament is unlikely to reflect the true relative strength of each team. As a result, earning the highest seed does not necessarily translate into improved odds to advance in or win the tournament.

To this end, I was able to calculate the odds for the Spartans to win the Big Ten Tournament is all 2,048 scenarios. Figure 1 below shows the weighted average odds depending on Michigan State's tournament seed.

Figure 1: Michigan State's Big Ten Tournament odds as a function of seed

Overall, the Spartans' tournament odds vary from 4.7% to 9.2% depending on the exact bracket. On average, Figure 1 reveals that the No. 6 seed provides better path to a potential Big Ten Tournament title than does the No. 5 seed by over half of a percentage point. 

It is also notable that the No. 10 seed provide better tournament odds than either the No. 8 or No. 9 seed. In both cases, there appears to be a clear advantage in avoiding likely No. 1 seed Purdue for as long as possible.

In the brackets where Michigan State has the best overall odds to win the tournament (around 9%), the Spartans are the No. 6 seed with No. 3 Iowa as the likely quarterfinals opponent and No. 2 Illinois as the potential semifinals opponent.

There are a few other scenarios with strong odds (8.5%) where the Spartans are the No. 10 seed, Indiana is the No. 7 seed and Northwestern draws the No. 2 seed. The higher probability scenarios with Michigan State as the No. 5 seed all have Minnesota as the No. 4 seed. 

Quick NCAA Tournament Update

While the Spartans' loss to Purdue on the road further tarnished Michigan State's win/loss record, the Green and White managed to cover the 10.5-point spread. Based on this fact, the Spartans actually rose slightly in both Kenpom (No. 20) and in the NET (No. 22).

The Spartans are still safely off the bubble in all major online brackets. Figure 2 below gives the current seed distribution from the bracket matrix website

Figure 2: Distribution of NCAA Tournament seeds for Michigan State as of March 5 according to bracketmatrix.com.

Over 75% of brackets have the Spartans on either the No. 9 or No. 10 seed line. Incidentally, my seeding algorithm has Michigan State No. 32 on the seed line, which corresponds to the weakest No. 8 seed.

Finally, if I apply the assumption that the Spartans need to reach at least 19 wins (two more total) before Selection Sunday, it is also possible to use the tabulate those odds now that all 2,048 Big Ten Tournament scenario are mapped out.

The current value from this calculation is 85.5%, which is the equivalent of winning a game when favored by 10 points. This spread is similar to the ones in the Spartans' home games this year against Penn State and Rutgers (both wins).

While the sting of the three-game losing streak is forefront in the minds of Spartan fans, it is still very likely that the Spartans will be dancing on Selection Sunday.