Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

The dawn of the next era is Michigan State football is just days away, and one things is clear. On Friday night at 7 pm in the familiar confines of Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, the Jonathan Smith era will officially kick-off with a game against the visiting Florida Atlantic Owls. Similar to nocturnal and inquisitive bird of prey mascot for the Spartans' first opponent, Michigan State fans likely have a lot of questions. A lot of them will focus on the long list of new names and faces who will take to the field for the first time in Green and White. Who is that young guy taking snaps and running the Spartan offense? (It's Oregon State transfer Aiden Chiles.) Who is that impressive looking tight end? (It's Jack Velling, also from Oregon State.)  Who are all those new guys on the offensive line?  Who is Jordan Turner? (He's a linebacker transfer from Wisconsin.) How about this D’Quan Douse fellow? (He is a defensive line transfer from Georgia Tech.) Who is Ed Woods? (H...

Over the past few weeks, I have taken you on a journey across the college football preseason landscape. I have reflected back on the data from 2023 and conducted a detailed analysis of the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans. I have analyzed the races in the Big Ten, the rest of the Power Four, and in the Group of Five. Most recently, I have made some predictions regarding the new 12-team college football playoffs. In the first six installments of this series, I have discussed a multitude of odds that I have generated using a simulation of the full college football season. In today's final installment of our college football preview, we will explore whether or not these odds might just help us win a bit of money.  That's right, it's time to officially kickoff the 2024 edition of Dr. Green and White's Bad Betting Advice. The Big Picture The results of my full season simulation provide a variety of odds that can be compared to common betting lines available from any ...

Over the past few weeks we have covered a lot of ground in this series. We started back in 2023, took a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and then made some predictions about the winners of all 10 Football Bowl Subdivision conferences. Now, it is time to put all of the pieces together and make some predictions about the newly expanded 12-team college football playoff. Review of Conference Champion Predictions Table 1 below summarizes the results shared in the previous parts of this series regarding the two teams from each conference who are predicted to face each other in their respective conference championship games. Table 1: Review of the predicted conference championship game participants based the preseason simulation results and the disruptive scenario. The left side of the table presents the predicted conference championship participants based on the raw odds generated from my preseason Monte Carlo simulation of the full season. The middle of the table ...

So far our math-informed journey into the 2024 college football season has taken us back in time to 2023, explored the schedule of the Michigan State Spartans, and delved into the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC races. Today's stop takes us to the remainder of Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conferences, with a brief detour looking at the likely accuracy of all these picks. In the new 12-team college playoff, the highest ranked champion from the Mountain West, American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, the Sun Belt, or the Mid-American Conference will also earn a spot on the bracket.  But which team will it be? Let's pay a quick visit to each conference and once again make some math-driven predictions. The Mountain West The analysis of each conference will take the same form as the analysis of the Power Four conferences in parts three and four of this series.  Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the Mountain West race, including the con...

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have reviewed the results from 2023, taken a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and analyzed several scenarios in the Big Ten race. In this year's new 12-team college football playoff the four highest ranked conference champions will all earn a first-round bye. While not guaranteed, the eventual Big Ten Champion will most likely earn one of those byes. The other three byes are expected to go to the champions of the SEC, the Big 12, and the ACC. In today's installment, let's take a quick look at the races in those three other conference and make some predictions as to which teams automatically advance to the quarterfinal round of the new playoff. SEC Overview and Prediction Similar to the analysis done for the Big Ten, Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the SEC race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final re...

So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have explored the historical accuracy of the preseason rankings, taken a look back at last year, and conducted a thorough analysis of the potential paths for the Michigan State Spartans' season. In today's installment, the focus shifts to the new, supersized, coast-to-coast Big Ten conference. Strengths of Schedule The first thing to cover today is the relative strength of schedule of each team. Figure 1 below summarizes my calculations for an 18 teams in the new Big Ten. Figure 1:  Overall strengths of schedule for the 2024 Big Ten conference. The overall FBS rank is shown in each bar. There are several different ways to calculate strength of schedule. I use my preseason estimations of power rankings and calculate the number of expected wins that a reference, borderline top 25 team would have if that reference team were to play the schedule in question. For example, if the reference team were to play Michigan S...