2024, Week 2 Recap: Reverse Card

College football is a funny game sometimes, especially early on. In the preseason, we think we know which teams are have a strong hand and which ones do not. Then, we see just one week of action and then we really think that we know what going on.

In Week Uno teams like Notre Dame, Penn State, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Kentucky all looked pretty good. Meanwhile a few others teams such as Clemson, did not look as good. In Week Two, all those teams get slapped with the Reserve Card.

But those schools were not alone. Last week, the red team from Maryland dominated UConn. At the same time the Green and White team from East Lansing struggled to beat Florida Atlantic. But in Week Two, the Spartans were also the beneficiaries of some reversal of fortune.

We talked last week about how teams often make the biggest improvements between Week One and Week Two. For Michigan State, especially on offense, that was certainly the case. Starting from the opening kickoff, the Spartans seemed like a more tied together group. They played with discipline and focus, and as the box score shows, Michigan State was the better team over 60 minutes.

That is not to say that the game went perfectly. Far from it. Young Spartan quarterback Aidan Chiles is still a bit of a Wild Card. His three interceptions gave Michigan State a difficult hand late in the game. 

But to his credit and to the credit of the Spartan defense and special teams, they all made the plays that mattered in the final five minutes to secure a rare road conference victory over a solid Maryland team. That in itself is a refreshing reversal of what Spartan fans have witnessed over the past two years.

Can the green team continue this streak without experiencing another reversal? That remains to be seen. But the fact is that if Chiles would have taken a little better care of the ball and if the defense would have gotten off the field a few more times on third down, Michigan State would have won this game going away by double digits.

That is perhaps the most encouraging thing of all. In Coach Smith can continue to play his cards right, his first season in East Lansing could wind up being a very pleasant surprise.

Week Two Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in last week's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Two showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of seven teams are in the overachiever category in Week Two: Clemson, USC, Tennessee, Texas State, Navy, Oregon State, and Ohio State (off scale). Four other teams were solidly in the underachiever category: Liberty, Oregon, Oklahoma, and Penn State. They each scrapped by with a win despite being double-digit favorites.

A total of 20 teams took an upset loss in Week Two. Seventeen of those teams lost to another FBS team while UTEP, Kent, and Wyoming all lost to FCS teams. Table 1 below summarizes those 17 FBS upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Two based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Of the 17 total upsets in the table, the majority involved spreads below 14 points. In this group there were several involving notable Big Ten or other Power Four teams including California over Auburn, BYU over Southern Methodist, South Carolina over Kentucky, Illinois over Kansas, Iowa State over Iowa, Duke over Northwestern, and Michigan State over Maryland.

By far the biggest upset of the weekend was Northern Illinois' walk-off winner over Notre Dame. As a 30-point favorite, the Irish only had a 1.7% chance to lose. In fact, this upset is in a tie for the sixth biggest upset since 2001 (which is as far back as I could find data). Based on the odds, this is the equivalent of a No. 16 seed beating a No. 1 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament.

The computer systems had a solid week, going a combine 3-3 on upset picks, thanks entirely to the FPI. ESPN's computer went 3-2 by correctly projecting San Jose State, Pittsburgh, and Washington State as winners while my computer get its only pick of the week wrong.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Two.

My algorithm went 1-1 for the first two picks of the year. My analysis of the FPI data resulted in a 6-4 record for the week (60%) which brings the year-to-date results to 10-7 (58.8%).

Overall for the week, however, both computers had a major reversal after a strong first week. My computer went just 17-32 (35%) against the spread (ATS) bringing the year-to-date total to 39-49 (44%). The FPI did a little better, going 20-29 (41%) for the week, which brings the total to 45-43 (51%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week One.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Two.

Just as I was ready to skip the point total bets, they had a surprising strong week. My "lock" picks went just 2-2 (50%) this week to bring the year-to-date tally to just 4-9 (31%). However, the full set of recommended bets was an impressive 22-11 (67%) which brings that set of picks up to 30-25 (55%) for the year.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Two, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Two.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Two

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With so many wild cards in the data after two weeks, it is still too soon to draw too many conclusions from the information in Tables 3 and 4. But we don't want to skip this analysis entirely. 

What we can say is that of the six teams considered to be the main Big Ten contenders, only Ohio State and USC have looked good two weeks in a row. As a result, those two schools in red now sit at the top of the current Big Ten odds table with the best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game at 53% and 44%, respectively.

As for the other four preseason contenders, all of them dropped six or seven spots in my power rankings. Penn State (27% to make the Big Ten Championship Game) really struggled this week against Bowling Green. Oregon (20%) looked shaky is both of the few two weeks, and Iowa (6%) lost to intrastate rival Iowa State.

As for the blue and yellow team from Ann Arbor, the Wolverines (14%) looked a bit shaky against Fresno State in Week Uno and then were gored by the Texas Longhorns on Saturday. After three years of dominance, Michigan seems to have also been hit with the Reverse Card. I wonder what has changed?

The only other data of note from the tables above are the handful of Big Ten teams who have creeped up the odds table as a result of a strong first two weeks. The big red school from Nebraska (10%) is up to No. 19 in my power ranking after wins over UTEP and Colorado.

Washington (6%) beat up on Eastern Michigan and now has slightly better odds to make the Big Ten Championship game than Iowa. Indiana (5%) is up to No. 39 in my power rankings and Illinois (4%) is up to No. 42 after the Illini's upset win over Kansas.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State's exciting, come-from-behind upset win over Maryland did reserve the mood of most Spartan fans, but the Green and White only edged up two spots in my power rankings to No. 68. The Spartans' have just the 15th best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game at just under 2%.

But having one conference win and two wins total already in hand is an advantage. The Spartans now rank No. 12 in the Big Ten in expected wins at 6.03 which puts the odds that Michigan State qualifies for a bowl game at 59%. However, as we will see, the Spartans may only be favored in two more games for the remainder of the season.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining 10 games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are shown in Figure 2 as a reference.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Two and based on a 70,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

As Figure 2 shows, the relative ease of difficulty of the Spartans' remaining games continues to fluctuate. Michigan State will be a huge favorite this coming weekend against Prairie View A&M. The Spartans are also likely to be favored in late November against Purdue (+3.5). But my current calculations project the Green and White to be a slight to modest underdogs in four other games and double-digit underdogs in the other four.

The projected difficultly of the final three games on the schedule has not changed much at all since the preseason. But that can not be said of the other six games. The home game against Iowa (+3.5) now looks much more winnable, but the home game against Indiana (-2) projects to be more difficult. 

The road games at Oregon (-13.5) and at Michigan (-11.5) both look a little more manageable while the home game against Ohio State (-16) is still expected to be a challenge.

The biggest wild card is the game in two weeks at Boston College (-11.5). At the moment, this game projects to have the same spread as the game at Michigan. But honestly we still don't know how good the Eagles really are. We will know a lot more after Boston College faces Missouri this weekend.

Taken all together, the Spartans' current draw suggests that at least four more wins is more likely than not. Assuming Michigan State gets the win this weekend, the Green and White will likely need to win at least three of the near toss-up games against Iowa, Indiana, at Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers. Or, the Spartans will need to steal at least one win from the set of more challenging games at Boston College, at Michigan, at Oregon, or versus Ohio State.

It is all just a matter of the Spartans playing their cards correctly.

National Overview

With the last few cards remaining in the deck, let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Two. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Two.

The conference with the strongest hand overall is clearly the SEC. Teams from that conference currently hold down the top four spots in my power rankings and six of the top eight spots. They are led by No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Texas which both already own marquee victories in this young season over Clemson and Michigan, respectively. 

The biggest mover in the SEC was No. 4 Tennessee, as the Volunteers easily handled North Carolina State this week. I have the orange team from Knoxville with the third best odds to make the SEC championship game (23%). South Carolina (7%) also shot up the SEC chart with a win over Kentucky.

No. 3 Alabama (22%), No. 7 Mississippi (19%), and No. 8 Missouri (17%) are also ranked in my current top 10, but none of those teams have been tested yet this year. The SEC teams that did not have a great weekend were Arkansas (which lost to Oklahoma State), Mississippi State (which lost to Arizona State), and Auburn (which was upset by California).

Nothing significant happened in the Big 12 race in Week Two, but most of the conference teams were a bit underwhelming. My power rankings now have have Big 12 teams ranked between No. 14 and No. 25, but none of the teams are standing out as potential national title contenders after two weeks.

No. 14 Utah, No. 20 Kansas State, and No. 23 Oklahoma State all won this weekend, but none of those three teams covered. Potential preseason contender No. 36 Kansas lost on the road to Illinois. 

The Big 12 teams that played their cards the best this week were No. 24 Iowa State, which upset Iowa and No. 34 UCF which has two wins over New Hampshire and Sam Houston State. One of these Big 12 teams is going to draw the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the college football playoff, but at this point I wouldn't count on more than one Big 12 team making the 12-team field.

The outlook in the ACC was a little more positive. No. 9 Miami blew out Florida A&M and the Hurricanes still look like the conference's best shot at a playoff appearance and postseason glory in general. But several other conference teams had strong performances.

Boston College (38% odds to make the ACC Championship Game), Louisville (22%), and Clemson (22%) all covered the spread this weekend, while California (18%) and Duke (9%) both moved up the charts thanks to upset wins on the road. Similar to the situation in the Big 12, however, it currently looks like a long shot for one that one conference team to make the playoffs.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Two.

The Mountain West has the current best hand with UNLV (26%) and Boise State (13%) holding the top two spots on my leaderboard. But a few other schools made serious moves in Week Two.

Northern Illinois (12.5%) scored the upset of the year over Notre Dame and have skipped up to No. 3 on the leaderboard. MAC compatriot Bowling Green (3%) also rose to No. 9 after a strong showing at Penn State. 

In the Sun Belt, both Texas State (9%) and James Madison (6%) are off to strong starts while Memphis (6%) has the best playoffs odds of the teams in the American Athletic Conference.

Against all odds, we have made it to the end for today. I have played all my cards, including a few wilds ones, in the hopes that you too can draw your own conclusions. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. Try not to skip it.