It is hard to believe that we are already halfway through the Michigan State Spartans' 2024 season. The Green and White currently sit at 3-3, having just lost two games straight to teams both ranked in the top three nationally.
Despite the current losing streak, Michigan State is actually slightly ahead of schedule. While the Spartans' schedule currently grades out to be harder than expected when I conducted the analysis this summer (by 0.7 games), Michigan State's current odds to go to a bowl game (46%) are 10 percentage points higher than what I projected.
In Week Seven, Michigan State has drawn a much needed bye. Think about it as an intermission of sorts. The Spartans' mission this weekend is to rest, heal, reflect on the first half of the season, and prepare for back half of the schedule with the goal of qualifying for the bowl game.
Michigan State's team and staff may be taking it easy, but data and Vegas never sleep. Today's piece will focus more on the overall Big Ten and college football landscape.
So go hit the restroom, grab a bag of popcorn, a bag of candy, and your favorite beverage from the lobby. The main event will be restarting soon. In the interim, here a taste of the action in the rest of the country.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Seven, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Seven, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
Michigan State is joined on the bye week by Indiana, Michigan and Nebraska. This leaves the remaining 14 Big Ten teams all with intraconference games.
The biggest game of the week and possibly the entire Big Ten regular season takes place in Eugene as No. 1 Ohio State (-4) takes on No. 19 Oregon. The winner will automatically become the favorite to win the conference, although both teams do have daunting road games remaining on the schedule. Ohio State travels to Penn State in Week 10 while Oregon must travel cross country to face Michigan in Week 10 and Wisconsin in Week 12.
Both computer algorithms and especially mine like the Buckeyes to win and cover. But, after watching both teams dismantle Michigan State over the past two weeks, I came away more impressed with the Ducks. The key question is if Oregon's strength in the trenches can overcome Ohio State's horsepower at the skill positions.
While not as high profile, No. 8 Penn State (-4) at No. 11 USC could have similar implications for the Big Ten race. The Trojans likely played themselves out of the race with last week's negative interaction at Minnesota, but the Nittany Lions currently project as the second most likely team to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. This trip to L.A. is the toughest road game on the Lions' schedule and a win would keep them in strong contention. That said, both computers are picking USC in an upset.
Another interesting game to keep an eye on is No. 17 Washington at No. 9 Iowa (-2.5). My computer thinks both of these team are a lot better than the national rankings suggest and it sees both teams as dark horse Big Ten contenders. The winner will likely stay in that category while the loser will need to shift focus on simply making a bowl game. Both computers pick Iowa to win and cover.
The remaining games are unlikely to impact the Big Ten race, but most of them should at least be entertaining. No. 34 Illinois (-19.5) should cruise to victory at home over No. 104 Purdue, and No. 29 Maryland (-9.5) is expected to protect their home turf against No. 86 Northwestern. The computers like both home teams to win and cover.
No. 22 Minnesota (-4.5) has a slightly bigger challenge, at least travel wise, at No. 85 UCLA. It will be the first trip to Pasadena for the Golden Gophers since 1962. The most competitive game on the Big Ten docket this week is projected to be No. 46 Wisconsin at No. 40 Rutgers (-1.5). The machines like the Scarlet Knights to win and cover.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week Seven. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conference as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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The bulk of the current SEC contenders are double-digit favors at home (more or less) this week. This includes No. 2 Texas (-15) versus No. 23 Oklahoma (in Dallas), No. 4 Alabama (-21) versus No. 30 South Carolina, No. 5 Georgia (-32.5) versus No. 72 Mississippi State, and No. 8 Tennessee (-15.5) versus No. 43 Florida.
The lone exception is No. 3 Mississippi (-2) at No. 28 LSU. Ole Miss has played in six straight weeks while LSU is coming off a bye week, which could make this game interesting. That said, the computers both like the Rebels to cover easily.
In the Big 12, No. 6 Iowa State is on a mission to win the Big 12 Title for the first time in history and they currently sit atop my Big 12 leaderboard. This week the Cyclones will be tested on the road at No. 42 West Virginia (+2.5). ESPN's FPI views this game as a nail-biter while my computer suggests a bet on Iowa State to cover.
No. 17 BYU is the most likely challenger to Iowa State. This week the Cougars host No. 61 Arizona (+3.5) and the machines are confident that BYU wins and covers.
Both No. 15 Kansas State and No. 33 Colorado are also still in serious contention for the Big 12 crown. The Wildcats (-4.5) and Buffalos will square off in Manhattan, Kansas for a chance to stay near the top of the standings. The computers both like Colorado to cover but lose in a close one.
In the ACC, three of the top four teams on my leaderboard (No. 10 Miami, No. 31 Southern Methodist, and No. 19 Virginia Tech) have byes this week, leaving just two games with significance in the conference race.
No. 32 Clemson has been slowly inching back up my ACC leaderboard since losing badly to Georgia in Week One. The Tigers are on a mission to continue their winning ways on the road at No. 90 Wake Forest (+20) even if the computers do not see them covering.
No. 20 Louisville will try to get back on the horse after getting bucked the Mustangs of Southern Methodist last week. The Cardinals will likely get a stiff challenge at No. 57 Virginia (+6.5).
In the Group of Five, No. 27 Tulane and No. 63 Navy are both on a bye and four other contenders for a playoff berth are double-digit favorites. No. 41 Army (-22.5), No. 48 Boise State (-21), No. 60 Western Kentucky (-18), and No. 39 UNLV (-18) are all expected to win without much trouble.
No. 44 James Madison's playoff hopes took a major hit last week due to an upset loss to Louisiana-Monroe. This week the Dukes hope to rebound against No. 80 Coastal Carolina (+9). No. 45 Memphis will also try to stay in the hunt with a road trip to No. 83 South Florida (+5.5).
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
Note that starting this week, I have fully removing the preseason rankings from my calculations. As we will see, this tends to generate a few more recommendations than we have seen over the past few weeks.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Seven. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Seven. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Seven. |
There are a total of 11 upset on the board this week, 10 of which are from my algorithm, six of which are from the FPI, and five of which overlap. The most notable upset picks include USC over Penn State and Arizona State over Utah.
A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.2 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 52 games is most likely. This is two more upsets than my computer's prediction over the past three weeks, so a more chaotic weekend is to be expected.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Seven. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer has nine picks on the board this week while my analysis of the FPI data gives three total picks. The machines agreed on one pick, Florida International to cover against Liberty. That game was actually played on Tuesday night and that pick was correct, so the computers are off to a solid start.
Other notable recommendations include Maryland to cover versus Northwestern, Mississippi to cover over LSU, BYU to cover versus Arizona, Iowa State to cover versus West Virginia, and Minnesota to cover versus UCLA.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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My computer gives a total of 11 recommended point total bets, only two of which qualify as "locks." My computer had its best week in a long time last week, so we will see if the trend continues.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. I consider my mission for the bye week to be complete. Hopefully it held your interest and there weren't any glaring omissions. In the interim, enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks performed.
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