2024 Week Seven Recap: Spoiler Alert

The Michigan State Spartans had a well deserved break from the action this week. I hope that they used this time wisely by resting up, watching some film, and getting ready for a late season push to earn a bowl bid.

If they had a little extra time, I hope that they were able to knock out some other tasks such as cleaning out the refrigerator or catching up on some of their favorite streaming shows such that they don't accidentally learn how something ends. I hate it when that happens.

While the Spartans were resting, 104 other FBS teams did take to the field of play and as a result, we are a little bit closer to understanding how the college football season will likely shake out. Let's dive right into this week's analysis.

Week Seven Bad Betting Results

Let's kick things off by checking in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Seven showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

In the Week Seven, 11 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Missouri, Notre Dame, Clemson, Texas, Iowa, BYU, and James Madison. A total of three teams failed to cover by more than 14 points and yet still won: Alabama, Georgia, and Illinois.

A total of 15 teams had their weekends spoiled by an upset loss relative to the opening spread. This value was again within a game of my simulation's forecast of 14.2. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Seven based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week

For the second week in a row the Vanderbilt Commodores sit at the top of the table thanks to their seven-point road win at Kentucky (-11.5). Other notable upsets include Northwestern over Maryland (-9.5), Cincinnati over UCF (-4), Oregon over Ohio State (-4), LSU over Mississippi (-2), and Wisconsin over Rutgers (-1.5).

Both computers got exactly half of the upset predictions correct. My computer went 5-5 (50%), bringing the year-to-date performance to 21-30 (41.2%). The FPI went 3-3 bringing its year-to-date record to 15-14 (51.7%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Seven.

The machines had a great weekend here as well. My computer went 6-3 (67%) in suggested bets and 31-21 (60%) overall against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performances to 25-17 (60%) and 188-157 (54.5%), respectively. 

My curated set of FPI picks went 2-1 (67%) while the full set of FPI picks went 27-25 (52%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to 17-15 (53%) and 181-164 (52.5%), respectively.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Five.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Seven.

It was a remarkably good week for these bets as well. My lock picks were a perfect 2-0 while the full collection of suggested bets went 8-3 (73%). This brings the year-to-date totals to 13-14 (48%) for the locks and 78-52 (60%) for the suggested bets.

At the midway point of the season, my computer is performing really well on all fronts. I hope that we don't get all too spoiled by these solid predictions.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Seven, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Seven.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Seven.

No. 10 Oregon's last second win over No. 2 Ohio State certainly puts the Ducks in a strong position to at least qualify for the Big Ten Championship game, but there is still a lot of football to be played. While the Buckeyes (56%) and Ducks (54%) have the best odds to make it to Indianapolis, the latest simulation only foresees an Ohio State/Oregon rematch in 29% of the cases.

If both teams win out, which is the single most likely result, the rematch will occur. But both teams still have tough games remaining that could result in another team sneaking into the title game.

No. 9 Penn State (32% odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game) managed to escape L.A. this weekend with a rare west-coast victory over No. 11 USC. The Nittany Lions host Ohio State in a few weeks and thus also control their own destiny in the Big Ten race.

No. 7 Iowa (24%) scored a big win over No. 27 Washington (1.2%) in Iowa City this weekend. The Hawkeyes are in a weak tiebreaker position due to a soft conference schedule, but if both Ohio State and Penn State take two conference losses, they have a shot at returning to Indianapolis.

No. 15 Indiana (17%) was off this week, but the undefeated Hoosiers also control their own destiny. While a win in Columbus in a few weeks seems unlikely, Indiana could sneak into the Big Ten title game with a 11-1 record and a little luck.

No other Big Ten team has better than a 6% chance to reach the championship game, but there are a few teams that could play the role of spoiler.

A few weeks ago, my computer projected that No. 25 Wisconsin (5.4%) was unlikely to even make a bowl game. But the Badgers put up back-to-back huge wins over No. 92 Purdue and No. 62 Rutgers and have thus clawed back into the realm of Big Ten relevance.

While the Badgers are a longshot to make a run real at a Big Ten title, Wisconsin still hosts Penn State and Oregon and will make road trip to Iowa. For some teams, the path to Indianapolis runs through Madison.

No. 34 Michigan (3.2%) may play a similar role as Wisconsin. The Wolverines still games remaining against Oregon, at Indiana, and at Ohio State.

As for the rest of the conference, No. 46 Illinois (2.3%) barely survived in overtime against Purdue and No. 18 Minnesota (1.4%) beat No. 82 UCLA on the road, but failed to cover. Realistically, the Illini and Gophers are now simply jockeying for bowl game position.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

With the Spartans spending the weekend at home, not much has changed in the big picture. One factor that is not helping is No. 49 Maryland lost its second Big Ten game in row, this time to No. 59 Northwestern at home. This result tends to sour the Spartans' Week Two win over the Terrapins.

Michigan State is now ranked No. 65 in power rankings. As shown in Table 4, my simulation currently gives Michigan State a 0.12% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 1-in-3,300 chance to win the Big Ten, a 0.32% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-80,000 chance to win the National Championship.

The Spartans' expected win total sits at 5.41 while the odds to qualify for a bowl are now 45%. 

Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining seven games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Seven and based on a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference

The bad news is that the next three weeks continue to look more challenging for the Green and White. My computer is projecting that Michigan State will be over a touchdown underdog to Iowa (-12.5), at Michigan (-8.5), and versus Indiana (-9). That said, the Vegas line for next weekend's contest with the Hawkeyes opened at just +6.5 for the Spartans.

Despite these lines, it is still more likely than not (56.5% to be exact) that Michigan State will steal at least one win in one of the next three games. If this were to occur, the Spartans would only need to win two of the final three games to become bowl eligible. Fortunately, the final three games on the schedule look slightly more manageable.

Winning at Illinois (-6) will still be a challenge, but the Illini's struggles with Purdue after a bye week is encouraging. The Spartans still project to be a double-digit favorite against the aforementioned Boilermakers (+10). 

The regular season finale against Rutgers (+2) has flipped back to a game where Michigan State should be favored. The Scarlet Knights have now lost two straight and the upcoming schedule is daunting. As a preview of potential things to come, there is a very plausible scenario where both Rutgers and Michigan State will have five total wins entering the final weekend of the season with a postseason bid on the line.

National Overview

In today's final segment, let's take a look at the full college football landscape and check in on the action that is most likely to impact the coming postseason. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Seven. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Seven

It was an eventful weekend in the SEC, as several teams made significant moves on my current leaderboard. No. 1 Texas (80% odds to make the SEC title game) is now the clear conference favorite after demolishing No. 41 Oklahoma. In contrast, most of the other SEC contenders struggled. 

No. 4 Alabama (42%) still owns the second best odds to reach the SEC Championship Game, despite the fact that the Tide failed badly to cover the spread at home against No. 24 South Carolina. No. 8 Georgia (7%) had a similar struggle at home against No. 60 Mississippi State. No. 12 Tennessee (11%) also won, but failed to cover at home against No. 39 Florida.

But, at least those three contenders won. No. 5 Mississippi (3%) was upset by No. 26 LSU (19%). This loss drops the Rebel to No. 9 on my SEC leaderboard while the Tigers are up to No. 4. 

No. 23 Texas A&M (24%) had a bye this week, but held position with the third best odds to make the SEC Championship Game. The Aggies avoid Alabama and Georgia this year and have the benefit of hosting both LSU and Texas later in the year. I mentioned Texas A&M as potential SEC dark horse back in the summer. As things stand today, the Aggies are more than just spoilers. They are bona fide contenders.

The No. 21 Vanderbilt Commodores (9%) have now spoiled the weekend for Alabama fans and No. 28 Kentucky fans in consecutive weeks. Vanderbilt still has games remaining against Texas and Tennessee in Nashville as well as a road game at LSU. Are more sour stomachs on the menu for the SEC contenders?

In Big 12 action, No. 3 Iowa State (83%) and No. 14 BYU (66%) both won and covered against No. 43 West Virginia (7%) and No. 71 Arizona, and thus were able to gain even more separation in the Big 12 race. 

The most likely Big 12 challengers faced off with each other this weekend and it was No. 17 Kansas State (14%) who claimed victory over No. 33 Colorado (12%). The Wildcats travel to Iowa State on the final weekend of the season, but that is the only remaining game between the four current contenders.

That said, No. 50 Utah could play the role of Big 12 spoiler, as the Utes host BYU and Iowa State, and travel to Colorado on three consecutive weekends in November.

Action in the ACC was muted this week, as four of the top eight teams on my leaderboard had byes, include current favorites to make the title game: No. 13 Miami (66%) and No. 38 Southern Methodist (35%). 

There were no major surprises on the ACC schedule as No. 22 Louisville (23%) won at No. 61 Virginia, No. 40 Clemson (19%) won big over No. 102 Wake Forest, and No. 44 Pittsburgh (16%) edged No. 56 California.

Next week Miami has to travel to Louisville and in that game to the victory will likely go the spoils in the form of a likely big to the ACC Championship game.

Finally, Table 7 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the Group of Five.

Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Seven.

There were no major upsets or surprises in the Group of Five this week as each of the primary contenders all won and covered. There was a slight shuffling of the order as this week the influence of the preseason rankings was phased out of my simulation.

The top three spots on the leaderboard as currently held by the current favorites of the three strongest Group of Five leagues. No. 31 Army (23%) currently holds the edge over No. 35 Boise State (22%) and No. 29 James Madison (14%) which had a strong bounce-back win over No. 86 Coastal Carolina.

Against all odds, we've made it to the end for today. Hopefully my analysis did not ruin any surprises or sour anyone's stomach. I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. Stay tuned.

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Key Words

Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Group of Five, College Football Playoff, Prediction, Analytics, Simulation, Statistics, Upsets, Against the Spread, Vegas, Point Totals, Over/under

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MSU might have the week off, but there is plenty of other Big Ten and national results to discuss.

Reading this analysis and taking Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson)'s advice might provide an unfair preview of what is to come later in the season. You've been warned.