2024 Week Six Recap: Trenched

It has been a tough last few weeks for Michigan State fans. After a surprising 3-0 start to the season, the Spartans have dropped the last three games to fall to a record of 3-3 at the mid-point of the season.

The story of the last three loses was a little bit different. Against Boston College, the Spartans outplayed the Eagles, but turnovers and other mistakes cost the Green and White the game late. Against Ohio State, the Spartans played a solid first half, but once again mistakes cost the Spartans the chance to at least keep the game close.

Friday night at Oregon, the Spartans lost in a way that was both surprising and a little disappointed. To make a long story short, Michigan State got beat up in trenches.

At the beginning of the year, both the defensive and offensive lines for the Spartans were a question mark. Through the first five games of the season, both units and especially the defensive line were a pleasant surprise. 

But on Friday night, the dam broke and it broke early. A few first half stats tell the entire story. Oregon racked up 192 yards rushing in the first 30 minutes while the Duck defense allowed only 21 yards rushing and generated three sacks and a fumble. That was essentially where the battle was lost.

There are a lot of reasons or potential excuses for the issues in Eugene. Playing back-to-back night games against top six opponents and traveling over 2,300 miles on short rest certainly did not help. The accumulation of injuries on the offensive line were also a significant contributor.

Regardless, next weekend's bye could not have come at a better time. The Spartans now have two weeks to hunker down, rest, reflect on the first six games, and prepare for the remainder of the season. Michigan State needs to dig deep and figure out a way to split the final six games of the season in order to qualify for a bowl game. Getting the big fellas in the trenches to shake off Friday night's performance will be a big step in achieving this goal.

The goal of making a bowl is still a pretty entrenched bench mark of a successful first season under Jonathan Smith. Another losing season will have fans feeling like they are stuck in no-man's land. The battle ahead will be a tough one, but it is still a battle that can be won.

Week Six Bad Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Six showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

In the Week Six campaign, eight teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Army, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Navy, Virginia Tech, and Mississippi.  No team failed to cover by more than 14 points and still win.

There were, however, a total of 12 upsets in this week, which dead on with the value of 12.2 predicted by my simulation. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Six based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week

This biggest upset of the week was clearly Vanderbilt's win over No. 1 Alabama (-23.5). Other notable upsets include Louisiana-Monroe over James Madison (-14.5), Arkansas over Tennessee (-13), Minnesota over USC (-8.5), SMU over Louisville (-7), and Syracuse over UNLV (-4.5).

The upset predictions of both computers were both in the ditch. My computer went 1-5 (16.7%) bringing the year-to-date performance down to 16-25 (39%). The FPI also had a tough week, going 0-2 bringing its year-to-date record to 12-11 (52%).

As Table 1 shows, all of the upsets had a spread of at least 3.5 points, which is unusual. The computers tend to stick to games where the line is close to a pick'em. This is the main excuse reason for the poor performance from the machines.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Six.

On the against-the-spread front, the machines did not perform much better. My computer went 1-2 (33%) in suggested bets and 19-30 (38.8%) overall against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performances to 19-14 (57.6%) and 157-136 (53.6%), respectively. 

My curated set of FPI picks went 0-3 while the full set of FPI picks went 24-25 (49%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to 15-14 (52%) and 154-139 (53%), respectively.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Five.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Six.

For the first time in a while, my point total bets were actually not in the ditch. My "lock" picks had their best week of the year, going 4-1 (80%) while the full collection of suggested bets went 10-5 (66.7%). This brings the year-to-date totals to 11-14 (44%) for the locks and 70-49 (59%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Six, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Six

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Six

Ohio State has risen to No. 1 this week in my power rankings thanks to the Buckeyes big win over No. 13 Iowa. Ohio State has the best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game (79%) and the best odds to win the league (58%).

Despite the loss to the Buckeyes, Iowa (15.2%) still has the fourth best odds to return to Indianapolis, thanks in large part to the Hawkeyes owning the easiest remaining schedule in the conference. 

As for the other Big Ten contenders, No. 7 Penn State (33%) and No. 11 Oregon (26%) remain entrenched as the most likely other team to challenge Ohio State for the conference crown. Both team won, but both failed to cover the spread which allowed the Buckeyes to extend their lead in conference odds.

Fans of No. 26 Michigan (6%) and No. 12 USC (3.5%) are both down in the dumps after both teams lost winnable games at No. 18 Washington (6%) and at No. 22 Minnesota (2%). These losses have knocked the Wolverines and the Trojans off the lead lap for the Big Ten race.

The team that once again made a significant move on the Big Ten leaderboard is No. 24 Indiana (15%). The Hoosiers won and covered at No. 86 Northwestern and have moved into fifth place in Big Ten Championship Game odds. 

Indiana has played the second easiest schedule of any Power Five team to date, but the Hoosiers are 6-0, bowl eligible, and own the No. 13 best resume in the nation. Indiana has a bye next week, followed by four games that project as near toss-ups. That stretch will reveal if the Hoosiers are contenders or pretenders.

The potentially interesting scenario revealed by Table 4 is the one where Ohio State runs the table, leaving a four-way tie for second place between Oregon, Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana at 8-1. In this scenario, all four teams' loss would be to the Buckeyes, as those teams do not play each other. In this case, conference strength of schedule would break the tie and Penn State right has the advantage.

In other Big Ten action, No. 14 Nebraska (5.4%) handed No. 40 Rutgers (2.4%) its first loss of the season and No. 46 Wisconsin (1.6%) took out some frustration on No. 104 Purdue and now at least has hopes of finishing at .500.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

The Spartans dug a slightly large hole for themselves with the loss to Oregon this week, but the big picture situation is largely unchanged.

Michigan State dropped once more in my power rankings to No. 66. My simulation currently gives Michigan State a 0.3% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 1-in-2750 chance to win the Big Ten, a 0.5% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-55,000 chance to win the National Championship.

The Spartans' expected win dropped slightly to 5.43 while the odds to qualify for a bowl are now 46%. 

To put this into a bit of perspective, my preseason analysis for Michigan State also had the Spartans ranked No. 66 in the nation. It had the Spartans' expected win total at 4.85 and the bowl odds at only 36%. Michigan State's schedule is also trending to be 0.7 games harder than expected during the summer.

While the last three weeks have been tough for fans to accept, the Spartans still appear to be slightly ahead of schedule.

Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining seven games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Five and based on a 80,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference

This week's spread prediction for the next two games versus Iowa (-8.5) and at Michigan (-9.5) as well as the season finale versus Rutgers (-2) are all stable. The games against Indiana (-6) and at Illinois (-7.5) continue to look tougher and tougher as the weeks pass. Purdue (+12) continue to look worse and worse.

In order to quality for a bowl game, Michigan State will need to win at least one game over the next four. The Spartans project to be roughly a touchdown underdog in each of those contests, but the math suggests that there is a 75% chance that the Green and White score at least one upset.

The Spartans then need to beat Purdue and then may need to beat Rutgers at home to secure a spot. The fact that Michigan State has two byes remaining and only needs to leave the state one more time this year (to travel to Illinois on November 16) should help.

National Overview

In today's final segment for today, let's take a look at the full college football battlefield and check in on the action that is most likely to impact the coming postseason. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Six. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Six.

The SEC race had a shake-up this week as not only did No. 4 Alabama lose to No. 35 Vanderbilt, but No. 8 Tennessee got upset by No. 38 Arkansas and No. 25 Missouri got blitzed on the road by No. 21 Texas A&M.

When the dust settled, idle No. 2 Texas (60% odds to make the SEC Championship Game) reclaimed the top spot on my SEC leaderboard with Alabama (40%) still holding on to the No. 2 spot. The Crimson Tide project to have a tie-breaker advantage due to a tougher strength of conference schedule.

No. 3 Mississippi (31%) jumped into third place after a solid win at No. 30 South Carolina. Texas A&M (25%) was then able to leapfrog No. 5 Georgia (16%), despite the dawgs home win against No. 64 Auburn. 

The Big 12 race was essentially stuck in a rut this week. No. 6 Iowa State (72%) beat No. 36 Baylor and strengthened a lead in odds to make the Big 12 Championship Game. over idle No. 17 BYU (50%) and idle No. 33 Colorado (23%). The only other major chance was No. 42 West Virginia's (14%) big upset win at No. 52 Oklahoma State which has vaulted the Mountaineers into fourth place on my Big 12 leaderboard.

On the ACC front, No. 10 Miami (67%) had another narrow (and potentially dubious) escape, this time at No. 53 California, but the Hurricanes continue to be the conference favorite. The biggest mover was No. 31 SMU (37%) which upset No. 20 Louisville (18%) at home to claim the second place on my updated ACC leaderboard.

Elsewhere on the coast, No. 32 Clemson (23%) and No. 19 Virginia Tech (20%) both won and covered against No. 76 Florida State and No. 89 Stanford respectively. The Tigers and Hokies have been creeping up the leaderboard over the past few weeks at the expense of teams like No. 49 Boston College (5%) who lost and failed to cover this week at No. 57 Virginia (8%).

Don't look now, but No. 50 Pittsburgh (12%) is one of only nine undefeated Power Five teams after beating No. 58 North Carolina on the road.

Finally, Table 7 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the Group of Five.

Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Six

No. 39 UNLV (14% odds to make the playoffs) had been entrenched at the top of the Group of Five leaderboard for the entire season, but a loss to No. 62 Syracuse has knocked the Rebels down to third place. No. 44 James Madison (8%) experienced a similar fall after losing to No. 77 Louisiana-Monroe.

In contrast, No. 41 Army (17%), No. 48 Boise State (16%), No. 27 Tulane (14%), and No. 63 Navy (8.5%) all won and covered the spread to remain in serious contention for the likely No. 12 seed in the college football playoffs.

Against all odds, we've made it to the end for today. I had to dig deep for this one, and I hope that I provided some valuable insight on multiple fronts. The Spartans may be taking the week off, but I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.

Other Tables

Social Media Copy

After a strong start, MSU's three-game skid has fans feeling lost in college football's no-man's land. The core problem and potential solution may lie in the trenches. Also, find out how Dr. G&W (@paulfanson) did on the questionable betting front.

Is it still too soon to make a joke about the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand? Maybe? I had to dig deep for this, but I think that it is a pretty solid analysis on all fronts (Michigan State, the Big Ten, the national landscape and my bad betting advice).

For today's Against All Odds piece, I dare to ask the question of whether it is too soon to make a joke about the 1914 assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand? Maybe? (Bonus points if anyone can get this reference beyond simple world history.)

I had to dig deep for this, but I think that it is a pretty solid analysis on all fronts. THE key factor for me both in the Oregon loss and going forward in the play in the trenches. If the poor showing in Eugene was an isolated incident, partially fueled by fatigue and jetlag, then I think MSU will finish strong, make a bowl game, and basically be OK.

https://michiganstate.rivals.com/news/dr-green-and-white-against-all-odds-week-six-trenched