Against All Odds, Week Five: It's Oh So Quiet

While I love college football, I must admit that a bye week for the team that I follow is pretty nice. The first four weekends of the year have already included some tense and dramatic moments for the Michigan State Spartans. But this weekend was oh so quiet. It was oh so still. 

I am sure that some of Spartan coaching staff, players, and fans enjoyed some alone time. I would imagine that it was quite peaceful. It is relaxing just to think about it. Shhhh!

As the Michigan State community enjoyed the week off, the college football season continued to march along. In many ways, it was a quiet week across the board. But there were a few outcomes that made fans shout and yell. Let's go ahead and take a look at details.

Week Five Betting Results

Let's ring the bell and break the silence regarding last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Five showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 10 teams qualified as overachievers this week: Notre Dame, Duke, Toledo, Utah, Boise State, Memphis, Iowa State, East Carolina, and Louisiana Tech. It was a quiet week for underachievers as there were no teams which failed to cover the spread by 14 points, yet won.

Underachievement in Week Five was reserved exclusively for the nine teams that took upset losses. For some of those teams, I imagine it feels like the sky up above is caving in. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Five based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

It was a peaceful week in this category with only nine teams getting bit by the upset bug. This is significantly less than the 14.6 upsets predicted in my weekly simulation. In addition, there were no upsets of teams favored by more than 8.5 points. The first four weeks of the season and all but one week in 2024 each featured at least one upset of a team favored by double digits.

The most notable upsets of those nine upsets were Virginia Tech over North Carolina State (-8.5), Virginia over Florida State (-6.5), California over Boston College (-6.5), Cincinnati over Kansas (-6.5), Illinois over USC (-5.5), Alabama over Georgia (-3.5), and Oregon over Penn State (-3).

My algorithm went 3-3 (50%) on upset picks which brings the year to-date-performance to 18-13 (58%). ESPN's FPI was virtually silent, going 0-6 (0%) for the week, bringing its year-to-date tally to 10-20 (33%). This is well below the benchmark, random number generator performance of 36%.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Five.

Both computers went .500 for the week as my algorithm went 2-2 while my picks extracted from the FPI data went 1-1. This brings the year-to-date performance for my algorithm to 13-10 (56.5%) and for the FPI picks to 20-14 (59%). 

Overall for the week my computer went 22-29 (43%) against the spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 113-133 (46%). The FPI had a very difficult week, going just 18-33 (35%) against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performance down to 123-123 (50%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Four.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Five.

After a riotously good Week Four, my point total bet blew a fuse this week. The lock picks went 1-1 (.500) but the full list of recommended picks went just 6-10 (38%).

Year-to-date, the locks are performing with a record of 10-13 (44%) while the full set of recommended bets are 53-63 (46%). Sometimes I wonder what's the use of these point total bet predictions, but I will continue to crunch the numbers.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Five, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Five

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Five.

In the biggest game on the Big Ten schedule this week, Oregon won on the road at Penn State in double overtime. In addition, Ohio State won and covered on the road at Washington. Indiana also won, but failed to cover, on the road at Iowa.

Illinois returned home and earned a bounce-back upset win over USC. Minnesota and Northwestern both got home wins over Rutgers and UCLA, respectively, but neither team covered the spread.

Based on these results, my Big Ten odds leaderboard has the top three teams in the league in a virtual dead heat. No. 6 Oregon has edged into the lead with a 49% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. No. 3 Indiana (46.0%) and No. 1 Ohio State (45.9%) are just a few percentage points back.

No. 12 Michigan (24%) is the only other Big Ten team with better than a 10% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. No. 16 Illinois (9%), No. 31 Maryland (6.5%), No. 17 USC (6.5%), and No. 14 Penn State (5.5%) are all drifting into long-shot territory.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

As expected from a bye week, not much has changed regarding the prospects for Michigan State. The Spartans held steady at No. 59 in my latest power ranking.

The expected win total for Michigan State is now 5.90 which translates into a 56.5% chance of at least a 6-6 record and a bowl game. 

The latest simulation results give the Spartans a 0.25% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 1-in-1,300 chance to win the Big Ten, a 1.2% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-6,800 chance to win the National Title.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining nine games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Five and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

The bye week had only a minimal impact on the odds for the the Spartans' remaining eight games. My computer's projection that Nebraska would open as an 11.0-point favorite next weekend was dead one. Michigan State continues to project as a big favorite over UCLA (+18), a big underdog at Indiana (-22), and a solid underdog versus Michigan (-10). 

In reference to the next four games, the only encouraging result from Week Five is that Indiana looked slightly more mortal against Iowa than the Hoosiers did the previous week against Illinois.

In the back half of the schedule, the Spartans' road game at Minnesota still projects as a toss-up. The home game against Penn State (-9.5) looks slightly easier following the Nittany Lions' loss to Oregon. But, the road game at Iowa (-7) now looks a bit tougher after the Hawkeyes were able to hang with Indiana in Iowa City.

The regular season finale at Ford Field against Maryland (-4) still looks tough, but winnable.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Five. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Five.

Outside of State College, Penn., the loudest action this week took place in the SEC. No. 5 Alabama scored a mild upset over No. 15 Georgia and No. 10 Ole Miss took care of business against No. 8 LSU.

In other notable SEC action, No. 13 Texas A&M got the win over No. 20 Auburn, No. 30 Tennessee escaped in overtime at No. 41 Mississippi State, No. 51 South Carolina beat No. 64 Kentucky, and No. 4 Notre Dame beat the head coach right out of No. 45 Arkansas.

When the dust settled, No. 2 Oklahoma (48%) and Alabama (40%) emerged as the two teams with the best current odds to reach the SEC title game. Those two teams are scheduled to face one another on Nov. 15 in Tuscaloosa and both teams are projected to be favored in all other conference games.

Ole Miss (30%), No. 11 Texas (20%), and Texas A&M (18%) are the next most likely contenders. LSU (10%), No. 21 Vanderbilt (10%), and Georgia (10%) all are now longshots to reach the SEC Championship Game.

The Big 12 race continues to be difficult to handicap, as several teams at the top of my leaderboard struggled to some extent in Week Five. Both No. 9 BYU and No. 19 Houston won, but both teams failed to cover. No. 34 Kansas did not fair as well as the Jayhawk took an upset loss to No. 47 Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, No. 22 Iowa State and No. 24 Utah both shot up the leaderboard thanks to a blow out wins over No. 40 Arizona and No. 87 West Virginia, respectively.

My Big 12 leaderboard currently has BYU (45%), No. 18 Texas Tech (34%), Houston (33%), and Iowa State (29%) all on the lead lap of the race for the two spots in the conference championship game. I consider Arizona State (15%), Utah (11%), and Cincinnati (11%) as potential dark horse contenders.

No. 7 Miami had a bye week but the projected ACC favorites saw their odds to make the ACC Championship game surge up to 66% thanks in large part to No. 23 Florida State's upset loss to No. 33 Virginia. No. 38 Duke managed to blow out No. 92 Syracuse, while both No. 32 Louisville and No. 54 Georgia Tech escaped with wins over No. 63 Pittsburgh and No. 81 Wake Forest.

The ACC is shaping up to be mostly a battle for the second spot in the conference title games. Right now the most likely candidates are Duke (35%), Louisville (24%), Virginia (22%), Georgia Tech (19%), and Florida State (12%).

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Five.

Teams from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) continue to dominate the leaderboard as North Texas (22% playoff odds), Memphis (14%), East Carolina (11%), and Tulane (10%) all both won and covered this weekend. 

North Texas has one of the weakest overall schedules (No. 129 out of 136 teams). Not coincidentally, the Mean Green also have the best odds in the nation to run the table at 37%. That said, North Texas projects to be a slight underdog on a neutral field to next most likely team to reach the AAC Championship Game: East Carolina.

If East Carolina were to win the AAC with at least two losses, it could open up an opportunity for one of the other Group of Five champions to sneak into the playoffs.

Old Dominion from the Sun Belt won and covered against Liberty this weekend and continues to have the best odds (13%) of any non-AAC team to make the playoffs. Conference USA favorite, Louisiana Tech (4.3%), also won and covered at UTEP to stay in the conversation.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. Zing! Boom! I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.