2026 College Football Analysis, Part 4: Forecasting the Big Ten Race

In the previous installment of this series, the numbers established the shape of the 2026 Big Ten race. Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana sit at the top of the projected standings, but the path to Indianapolis is unlikely to be orderly.

The next step is to move beyond the raw odds and examine the specific games, tiebreaker scenarios, and upset paths that could determine which two teams actually reach the Big Ten Championship Game.

Big Ten Championship Scenarios

In Part 3 of this series, I introduced a table summarizing my preseason simulation of the Big Ten race. It includes each team’s consensus preseason ranking, expected wins, two projected final records, strength of schedule, and odds to reach and win both the Big Ten Championship Game and the 12-team College Football Playoff.

For reference, that table is duplicated below.

Table 1:  Summary of the preseason projections for the Big Ten conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season.

Table 1 provides the raw odds for Big Ten glory, but those odds are built from 100,000 simulated seasons. More insight comes from looking at some of the most likely specific paths the race could take.

First, let’s look at the Big Ten games in which one of the top-eight contenders faces another top-eight contender. There are 14 such games on the 2026 Big Ten regular-season schedule:

• 9/26: Iowa at Michigan (-6.8)
• 9/26: Oregon (-6.7) at USC
• 10/3: Ohio State (-11.7) at Iowa
• 10/10: Iowa at Washington (-4.9)
• 10/10: USC at Penn State (-2)
• 10/17: Ohio State (-1.9) at Indiana
• 10/17: Penn State at Michigan (-4.7)
• 10/24: Indiana (-3) at Michigan 
• 10/31: Ohio State (-8) at USC
• 11/7: Oregon at Ohio State (-4.9)
• 11/14: USC at Indiana (-9.7)
• 11/14: Michigan at Oregon (-14.6)
• 11/21: Indiana (-5) at Washington
• 11/28: Michigan at Ohio State (-15.8)

Only two games involve a pair of the three primary contenders. On October 17, Ohio State visits Bloomington to face Indiana. Then, on November 7, the Buckeyes host Oregon. Ohio State is the consensus preseason No. 1 team, and my calculations have the Buckeyes favored in both games.

If the currently projected favorites were to win every Big Ten game, Ohio State would clinch the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Championship game with a 9-0 conference record and wins over Indiana and Oregon. 

The Hoosiers and Ducks do not face each other and are both projected to win the rest of their conference games, which would leave them tied for second place at 8-1. The tiebreaker would default to the combined conference records of the tied teams’ conference opponents, which is effectively reflected in conference strength of schedule.

The data in Table 1 implies that Oregon would win that tiebreaker based on a stronger conference slate. In that scenario, the Ducks would earn a rematch with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game, and my model would project another narrow Buckeye victory.

While that is the single most likely scenario, the conference race will likely not follow such a clean script. In my disruptive scenario, I assume a historically reasonable number of road upsets across the league.

The key assumption is that upsets are most likely when strong teams are narrow road favorites against slightly weaker opponents. In the list above, five games are shown in italics because my disruptive scenario forecasts a potential home-underdog upset.

In the disruptive scenario summarized in Table 1, chaos reigns at the top of the Big Ten standings as six teams would tie for first place with records of 7-2: Oregon, Indiana, USC, Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State.

Here is how that scenario could come to pass:

• Ohio State would suffer minor road upset at both Indiana and at USC.
• Oregon would lose on the road to Ohio State as expected and get upset at USC.
• Indiana would upset Ohio State but would suffer upset road loses at Michigan and at Washington.
• Penn State would lose road games at Michigan and Washington, as expected.
• USC would get the big upset home wins over Ohio State and Oregon, but would lose on the road at Penn State and at Indiana.
• Michigan would get the upset win over Indiana but would lose on the road, as expected, to Ohio State and Oregon.

With a logjam at the top of the standings, the tiebreaker would again come down to conference strength of schedule. Table 1 suggests that USC and Ohio State would be the two teams expected to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.

Historically, I use the results of my disruptive scenario as my official forecast. So, I predict a Big Ten Championship Game rematch of Ohio State versus USC. The Buckeyes would be projected to win by 12 points.  

Potential Path and Pitfalls for Each Primary Contender

More likely than not the actual Big Ten season is not going to play out exactly like either of the two scenarios outlined above. Here are the biggest challenges and biggest opportunities for each contender to advance to the Conference Championship Game in Indianapolis.

Ohio State is the favorite to win the Big Ten title, but as Figure 2 implies, the Buckeyes have the fourth-most difficult conference schedule. Ohio State plays both Indiana (+1.9) and Oregon (+4.9), and as long as the Buckeyes split those two games, they should be in good shape to return to Indianapolis.

That said, there are several potential pitfalls elsewhere on the schedule. The road game at USC (+8) could be a challenge, while trips to Iowa (+11.7) and Nebraska (+15.2) are also potentially dangerous. Moreover, the season-ending rivalry game against Michigan (+15.8) is not an automatic win, even when the game is in Columbus.

If Ohio State does split with Indiana and Oregon, one additional upset loss could knock the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten Championship Game.

Oregon has the obvious challenge of needing to travel to Columbus to face Ohio State (-4.9) in early November. The second toughest game on the Ducks' conference schedule is the road game at USC (+6.7). 

Outside of those two games, however, the Ducks project to be favored by two touchdowns or more in every other Big Ten matchup. Road games at Illinois (+13.7), and home games against Michigan (+14.6) and Washington (+16.6), are the next most difficult games on the schedule, and all three look manageable.

While on paper Indiana has a schedule that is easier than the conference average, there are several challenges and pitfalls along the way.

The Hoosiers are projected to be underdogs only against Ohio State (-1.9), but four other conference games have projected point spreads of less than 10 points.

The most critical are road games at Michigan (+3) and Washington (+5), both of which could easily become upset losses. Beyond that, the road game at Nebraska (+9.7) and a home game against USC (+9.7) could also cause problems.

Other Potential Dark Horse Contenders

While the three primary contenders have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, I estimate there is an 84% chance that at least one team outside that group will make it to Indianapolis.

Penn State is only the sixth highest ranked Big Ten team in the preseason, but the fact that the Nittany Lions own the easiest conference schedule makes them an interesting sleeper pick. 

In addition, the potential first-year coach bump, combined with Penn State standing out in Part 1 as a team that could be underrated, makes the Nittany Lions one of the most intriguing Big Ten teams headed into the fall.

Penn State does not face Ohio State, Oregon, or Indiana in the regular season. The toughest three games on the Lions' schedule are road games at Michigan (-4.7) and at Washington (-2.7) and a home game against USC (+2). If Penn State wins two of those three games, fans might be wise to start looking for hotel deals in the Indianapolis area in early December.

The next three toughest games are contests at Northwestern (+5.9), at Maryland (+7.1), and versus Minnesota (+11), none of which appear daunting, especially if Penn State is a little better than expected. 

That said, Penn State’s weak conference schedule puts the Nittany Lions in a poor tiebreaker position. They could be on the outside looking in even with an 8-1 conference record.

As mentioned above, USC has a surprising path to the Big Ten Championship Game in the case where just a handful of teams can stage upsets at home. That said, USC owns the toughest schedule in the conference.

The Trojans have the misfortune of drawing the strongest three Big Ten teams. USC plays Indiana (-9.7) on the road and both Ohio State (-8.0) and Oregon (-6.7) at home. The Trojans also project to be underdogs on the road at Penn State (-2.0). USC likely needs to split these four games to have any shot to reach the conference title game.

Beyond those four games, USC has three more in which the Trojans are projected to be favored by less than a touchdown: home against Washington (+6.2), at UCLA (+6.0), and at Wisconsin (+6.4). USC will likely need to avoid upset bids in all three to have any hope of claiming a Big Ten title.

Similar to USC, Michigan also has the misfortune of drawing most of the best teams in the Big Ten this year. The Wolverines travel to face the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 teams in Ohio State (-15.8) and Oregon (-14.6), and they host the defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers (-3). Just winning one of those games will be difficult.

The Wolverines also face Penn State (+4.7) and Iowa (+6.8) and Minnesota (+4.8) on the road, all three of which will be challenging.

Based on this schedule, Michigan’s most likely path back to Indianapolis would require a multi-team tie for first place at 7-2, in which case the Wolverines’ strong conference strength of schedule would be an advantage. In that scenario, either USC or Ohio State would likely need to take at least three conference losses.

Washington has the next-best odds to reach Indianapolis, but the schedule looks daunting. The Huskies are projected to be big underdogs at Oregon (-16.6), and smaller underdogs at USC (-6.2) and against Indiana (-5). Their next three toughest projected games are at Nebraska (+1), against Penn State (+2.7), and against Iowa (+4.9).

It is difficult to see enough wins on that slate to consider Washington anything other than a long shot.

We will know fairly early in the season if Iowa is a potential contender or not. The Hawkeyes open Big Ten play with a road game at Michigan (-6.8), a home game against Ohio State (-11.7), and a road game at Washington (-4.9). 

If Iowa can find a way to win two of those three games, the rest of the schedule is far less grueling. The next three toughest games are at Illinois (-0.4), at Minnesota (+1.6), and at Northwestern (+3.8).

Illinois hosts Oregon (-13.7) and travels to Ohio State (-22.2), but the Illini’s next toughest game is at UCLA (-1). If they are better than expected, one big upset could put them into contention.

Wisconsin also deserves a brief mention, mostly because of a very favorable Big Ten schedule. The Badgers are projected to be underdogs in five of their nine conference games, but they avoid all three primary contenders.

The most difficult games on their schedule are road trips to Penn State (-12.1), Iowa (-9.9), and UCLA (-4.1), plus a home game against USC (-6.4). If Wisconsin is much better than expected several of those projected close losses could flip into likely wins, and contention could be one or two good bounces away.

Finally, if I put my extreme optimism hat on, it is also possible to plot a course to Indianapolis for the Michigan State Spartans. MSU draws Oregon (-21.5) at home and faces Michigan (-17.8) in Ann Arbor. An upset win over at least one of those teams would almost certainly be necessary.

After that, the next most challenging games are at UCLA (-8.7), against Washington (-8.5), and at Wisconsin (-8.3). Similar to the Wisconsin case, if the Spartans are a lot better than expected and some of those opponents are worse than expected, several of these contests could move closer to toss-ups, and the remaining games on the schedule would start to look more winnable.

While improbable, it is not outside of the realm of possibility.

Now that we have a firm grasp on the Big Ten race, the next stop on our preseason tour of the college football landscape is a closer look at the remaining three Power Four conference races. Stay tuned.