So far in this year's math-driven college football preview, we have reviewed the results from 2025, taken a close look at the schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, and analyzed several scenarios in the Big Ten race.
In today's installment, let's take a quick look at the races in the other three power conferences and make some predictions about which teams are most likely to earn automatic bids to the 12-team College Football Playoff.
SEC Overview and Prediction
Similar to the analysis done for the Big Ten, Table 1 below shows the detailed results of my preseason simulation of the SEC race, including the consensus preseason rank of each team, two sets of projected final records, strength-of-schedule data, and the odds for each team to make and win the SEC Championship Game and to make and win the 12-team playoff.
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| Table 1: Summary of the preseason projections for the SEC conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season. |
From top to bottom, the SEC is once again considered the top
conference in the nation. SEC teams occupy four spots in the top 10 and exactly
half of the top 12. A total of nine SEC teams start the season ranked in the
top 20 nationally.
The raw odds suggest that preseason No. 4 Texas (19.3%) and No. 5 Georgia (18.6%) have the best odds to win the conference championship game. The fact that both teams are ranked in the top five nationally and own two of the six easiest conference schedules certainly helps.
Despite what the math says, the Longhorns have tough games on the road against No. 8 Texas A&M (+0.2), at No. 12 LSU (+3.2), at No. 18 Tennessee (+6.6), and the semi-home game in Dallas against No. 9 Oklahoma (+6.5).
Georgia's schedule, which ranks as the second easiest in the SEC behind only Vanderbilt, includes road games at No. 11 Alabama (+1.5), at No. 13 Ole Miss (+2.8), and a home game against No. 9 Oklahoma (+7.2).
Beyond the Longhorns and Bulldogs, No. 8 Texas A&M (10.5%), No. 9 Oklahoma (9.7%), and No. 11 Alabama (8.9%) make up the group of teams most likely to crash the SEC title-game party. But both Texas A&M and Oklahoma have schedules ranked in the top five in conference difficulty.
No. 12 LSU (7.4%), No. 13 Ole Miss (6.7%), No. 18 Tennessee (4.7%), and No. 20 Florida (3.8%) are the SEC dark horse contenders.
Just as in my analysis of the Big Ten, the Most Likely Scenario is the one in which the projected favorite wins every conference game. If this were to happen, Georgia and Texas would both run the table in conference play to finish 9-0. Texas would be a very narrow favorite to edge the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game in this scenario.
In the Disruptive Scenario, the conference race plays out a little differently. This scenario is designed to inject a historically reasonable number of road upsets into the analysis. Practically speaking, especially in the SEC, this tends to produce a bloodbath in which ranked teams beat up on each other at home. But the results of the exercise are still informative.
As Table 1 shows, the Disruptive Scenario predicts a tie between Georgia and Alabama at 7-2. In this scenario, the Bulldogs lose two road games at Alabama and Ole Miss. Alabama beats Georgia but loses on the road at Tennessee (+0.4) and at LSU (-3).
Georgia projects to be a five-point favorite on the neutral field over Alabama and is therefore my pick to win the SEC this year.
Not coincidentally, the pair of teams that my Disruptive
Scenario selects to share the regular-season title have two of the four easiest
conference schedules. That said, the eventual SEC champion will likely get
there by protecting its home field and by stealing a win—or avoiding an
upset—on the road.
Based on this assumption, here is a list of the
highest-impact SEC conference games this season with my projected point
spreads. The 12 projected road upsets by contenders in the Disruptive Scenario
are shown in italics:
- 9/19:
LSU at Ole Miss (-3)
- 9/26:
Oklahoma at Georgia (-7.2)
- 9/26:
Texas at Tennessee (+6.6)
- 9/26:
Texas A&M at LSU (-0.6)
- 9/26:
Ole Miss at Florida (pick'em)
- 10/10:
Georgia at Alabama (+1.5)
- 10/10:
LSU at Vanderbilt (+3.7)
- 10/10:
Oklahoma vs. Texas (-6.5)
- 10/10:
Texas A&M at Missouri (+5.8)
- 10/17:
Alabama at Tennessee (+0.4)
- 10/24:
Texas A&M at Alabama (-1.3)
- 10/24:
LSU at Auburn (+3.6)
- 11/7:
Alabama at LSU (-3)
- 11/7: Texas A&M at South Carolina (+6.4)
- 11/7: Georgia at Ole Miss (+2.8)
- 11/7:
Oklahoma at Florida (+2.8)
- 11/14:
Texas at LSU (+3.2)
- 11/14:
Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-6.5)
- 11/21:
Texas A&M at Oklahoma (-2.8)
- 11/21:
LSU at Tennessee (-0.3)
- 11/28:
Oklahoma at Missouri (-4.9)
- 11/28:
Texas at Texas A&M (+0.2)
- 11/28:
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (+1)
The simulation also suggests that the expected number of SEC
teams to make the College Football Playoff is 3.9. The odds that an SEC team
wins the national title are 36%.
Big 12 Overview and Prediction
Table 2 below shows the detailed results of my preseason
simulation of the Big 12 race in the same format used in Table 1 above.
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| Table 2: Summary of the preseason projections for the Big 12 conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season. |
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ACC Overview and Prediction
Table 3 below shows the detailed results of my preseason
simulation of the ACC race in the same format used in Table 1 and Table 2
above.
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| Table 3: Summary of the preseason projections for the ACC conference, based on the consensus preseason rankings and a 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full college football season. |
Of all the teams in the four power conferences, No. 7 Miami
is the most likely to find success in conference play. The Hurricanes have just
over a 50% chance to reach the ACC Championship Game and a 32.7% chance to
claim the conference crown.
The raw odds suggest that No. 21 SMU (10.8%), No. 23 Clemson
(9.4%), and No. 25 Louisville (9.1%) are the most likely challengers for the
ACC Championship.
Beyond the top four is a group of six dark horse contenders
with conference odds between 4% and 6%. This group consists of No. 31 Virginia
Tech (5.7%), No. 40 Virginia (4.4%), No. 38 Florida State (4.4%), No. 41
Georgia Tech (4.2%), No. 39 Pittsburgh (4.1%), and No. 46 North Carolina State
(3.8%).
If all the current favorites were to run the table, both
Miami and Louisville would finish conference play undefeated at 9-0. In this
scenario, Miami would be favored to win the ACC Championship Game by 10 points.
In the Disruptive Scenario, Miami loses a close game on the
road at Clemson (+5.7) to finish at 8-1. Louisville similarly drops a road game
at Georgia Tech (+0.3) to also finish at 8-1. Although Clemson has the win over
the Hurricanes, the Tigers also take an upset road loss at Florida State to
finish the regular season at 7-1.
This situation highlights one of the stranger new potential
tiebreaker scenarios in all of Division I. Starting this year, the ACC moved to
a nine-game conference schedule—sort of. The problem is that there are 17 teams
in the ACC, and it is mathematically impossible for a league with an odd number
of teams to play a schedule in which every team plays an odd number of
conference games.
So, five ACC teams, namely Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida
State, North Carolina, and Boston College, only play eight conference games
this year.
As a result, the ACC had to modify the tiebreaker procedure
to define tied teams as teams that have either the same number of wins or the
same number of losses as the team or teams with the highest overall winning
percentage.
In the disruptive scenario, Miami (8-1) and Louisville (8-1)
have the highest win percentage, but Clemson (7-1) is considered tied for first
place since all three teams have just one loss.
The primary tiebreaker is head-to-head performance, but it
only comes into play if the tied teams all played one another in the regular
season. Louisville does not face either Miami or Clemson, so the next
tiebreaker is the College Football Playoff ranking.
For my purposes, I will assume that the College Football
Playoff rankings will mirror the preseason power rankings. Based on this
assumption, Miami would face Clemson in the ACC title game.
My calculations suggest that the Hurricanes would be favored
to beat the Tigers by nine points on a neutral field. So Miami is my
official pick to win the ACC Championship.
Interestingly, No. 21 SMU is on the outside looking in in
both the Most Likely and Disruptive Scenarios despite being the
second-highest-ranked ACC team in the preseason, with the second-best raw
conference odds and the second-weakest conference schedule.
Despite these advantages, the Mustangs draw Louisville
(-2.2) and Florida State (+1.1) both on the road, giving them just enough
losses in both scenarios to miss out on the ACC Championship Game. That said,
both contests will take place in September, so we will learn quickly whether
SMU is likely to contend for the ACC crown.
Here are the ACC conference games most likely to impact the
league race:
- 9/5:
SMU at Florida State (+1.1)
- 9/19:
SMU at Louisville (-2.2)
- 10/3:
Miami at Clemson (+5.7)
- 10/31:
Miami at Florida State (+0.4)
- 11/7:
Louisville at Georgia Tech (+0.3)
The simulation also suggests that the expected number of ACC
teams to make the College Football Playoff is 1.65. The odds that an ACC team
wins the national title are 8.8%.
What About Notre Dame?
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish remain independent but
maintain a schedule that includes one Big 12 team, three Big Ten teams, and six
ACC teams. The Irish enter the year ranked No. 3 in the nation and are a
serious national title contender.
Despite the large number of Power Four teams on the
schedule, Notre Dame's overall strength of schedule is just No. 60 nationally,
which is just slightly more difficult than Penn State's remarkably soft slate.
The Irish project to be favored in all 12 regular-season
games, but there are a few potential pitfalls along the way involving several
of the Power Four contenders listed above.
The toughest game on the Notre Dame schedule currently
appears to be a road game at BYU (+6.7) at the end of a stretch of seven
consecutive games. My Disruptive Scenario predicts an upset loss for the Irish
in Provo.
Notre Dame also has homes games against ACC contenders Miami
(+7.7) and SMU (+16.2) which rank as the second and third toughest games on the
schedule. But Notre Dame projects as at least a 17-point favorite in the nine
other games on the schedule.
Overall, I predict an 11-1 record for Notre Dame, which
would almost certainly earn the Irish a spot in the playoff. My simulation puts
Notre Dame's odds to reach the playoff at 54.5%.
Now that we have thoroughly investigated the Power Four conference races, the next step in this preseason journey is the Group of Six conferences. Stay tuned.
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