2026 College Football Analysis, Part Two: Michigan State's Schedule

In part one of this year's math-based preseason analysis of the college football season, we looked back at the 2025 season. Through that analysis, we learned about the historical accuracy of preseason polls (plus-or-minus 25 positions) and regular season win totals (plus-or-minus 2.2 wins). We also explored the impact of changes in ability, schedule, and luck.

Now it is time to shift focus to the 2026 season. Over the years, I have developed and refined a way to simulate the entire college football season using schedule information and preseason rankings as the only inputs. I will soon go through the full details of what I learned from this exercise.

For today, I will focus exclusively on what my analysis says about the Michigan State Spartans. We will take a close look at the Spartans' 2026 schedule from three different points of view.

Opponent Overview

The best place to start this analysis is with the simulation's inputs. Figure 1 below summarizes the preseason rankings (which correlate to team strengths) for Michigan State and the Spartans' 12 opponents.

Figure 1: Summary of the teams on the Michigan State football schedule in 2026, sorted by average preseason rankings.

The bars give the preseason rankings for each team from five publications: Phil Steele, Athlon Sports, Lindy's Sports, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Bill Connelly's SP+, and CBS Sports. The final labeled bar in each cluster is the consensus average of the five rankings. This is the number that I use to set the power rankings for my full-season simulation.

The Spartans' preseason rankings vary. Phil Steele is the most optimistic, ranking Michigan State as the No. 63 team in the nation. Athlon is the least optimistic about the Spartans, assigning a preseason ranking of No. 72. The other four publications have MSU ranked somewhere between No. 65 and No. 67. As a result, I have assigned Michigan State a consensus ranking of No. 66.

This is slightly worse than last year's preseason ranking of No. 58 and it is identical to the consensus ranking prior to the 2024 season.

As for the Spartans' opponents, the green and white have the misfortune of drawing two of the projected top three teams in the country in No. 2 Oregon and No. 3 Notre Dame. Michigan State also draws two additional teams expected to be top-25 caliber: No. 15 Michigan and No. 19 Washington.

Moving from left to right, the next pair of opponents are teams outside of the top 25 in No. 33 Illinois and No. 34 Nebraska. This is followed by a trio of teams which are all expected to be slightly better than Michigan State: No. 45 UCLA, No. 47 Wisconsin, and No. 52 Northwestern.

To this point, the Spartans' schedule contains nine teams that all project to be stronger than Michigan State in 2026. The tenth team on the schedule, No. 65 Rutgers, is projected to be on par, talent-wise, with the Spartans.

Rounding out the schedule are two MAC teams, No. 93 Toledo and No. 117 Eastern Michigan. As things stand in August, these are the only opponents on the schedule where the Spartans project to have more talent on the field.

The data in Figure 1 also suggests that there is some disagreement amongst the experts regarding the actual strength of several of the teams. UCLA is ranked as high as No. 30 by Steele while the FPI has the Bruins down at No. 64, on par with Michigan State.

Steele is also more optimistic than most about the prospects for Wisconsin (No. 27) while SP+ and CBS have the Badgers outside of the top 60. Steele also likes Rutgers (No. 46) more than anyone else, especially Lindy's which has the Scarlet Knights way down at No. 98.

Even Toledo's preseason ranking is a bit variable. The FPI and CBS have the Rockets ranked right around No. 80 while SP+ places them outside of the top 100.

Projected Point Spreads

Figure 1 provides a qualitative look at the schedule for Michigan State this fall. Figure 2 below provides the projected point spreads and the odds for the Spartans to win each of the 12 regular season games in 2026.

Figure 2: Projected point spreads and victory probabilities for all 12 games for the 2026 Michigan State Spartans. The odds are calculated in two ways: a) assuming that the preseason rankings are accurate and b) using the results of the 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation, which accounts for the known, average uncertainty of the preseason rankings.

Figure 2 contains two sets of data. The white-and-red-checked bars are the odds generated using the uncorrected preseason rankings. I use the preseason rankings to project preseason power rankings, point spreads, and win probabilities for any potential match-up. 

The solid green bars are the odds derived from the 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full season with the uncertainty of the preseason rankings taken into account. Each simulation cycle is a series of digital dice throws to determine the winner of every game based on those modified probabilities.

Note that the point spreads derived from the simulation (shown on each bar) are in general agreement with the early point spreads from DraftKings for Michigan State's home games against Toledo (+11.5) and road game at Michigan (-17.5).

Overall, my simulation projects that the Spartans will be over a touchdown favorite against the two MAC opponents to open the season. The home game against Northwestern is currently projected as a pick'em. Michigan State is projected to be the underdog in the remaining nine contests.

The Spartans project to be about a three-point underdog in the home games against Nebraska (-3.0) and Illinois (-3.5) and for the road game at Rutgers (-3). Michigan State projects to be closer to a seven-point underdog in the road games at Wisconsin (-6.5) and UCLA (-6.5) as well as the home game versus Washington (-6.5).

For the remaining three games on the schedule at Notre Dame (-21), at Michigan (-13.5), and versus Oregon (-16), the Spartans will likely be big underdogs.

Win Distribution

Figure 2 shows the odds that Michigan State will win or lose each of the 12 games on the schedule. But what does this tell us about total wins and losses? There are over 4,000 different ways for the season to play out for the Spartans. Michigan State could win anywhere from zero to all 12 games. Figure 3 gives the odds for each of those 13 potential outcomes.

Figure 3: Win distributions for the 2026 Michigan State Spartans calculated in two ways: a) using the preseason rankings as is and b) using the results of the 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation which accounts for the uncertainty of the preseason rankings.

Similar to Figure 2, the results in Figure 3 are calculated using two different methods. One method (the blue striped bars) assumes that the preseason rankings are accurate, while the other method (the solid green bars) accounts for the known and quantifiable uncertainty in the preseason rankings.

At first glance, the two sets of data tell the same story. The Spartans will most likely win around four or five games. This is consistent with the Las Vegas win total, which has Michigan State's over/under set at 4.5 wins. The money lines suggest that a value just over four wins is more likely (4.08). My simulations give an overall expected win total of 4.70. The math checks out.

According to the striped bars in Figure 3, there is a 85% chance that Michigan State will win somewhere between three and six games. Every other college football preseason analysis that attempts to make this type of calculation yields a similar result.

But this result is not statistically accurate.

If Michigan State truly is the No. 66 best team in the country, and if the Spartans' 12 opponents are also exactly as good as the preseason experts believe, then the estimated point spreads in Figure 2 and the distribution shown in Figure 3 in the striped blue bars are both correct.

But I already explained in part one of this series that the preseason rankings vary on average by 25 positions. The data shown in the green bars shows the more accurate prediction after the preseason uncertainty is taken into account.

For Michigan State (and for every other team), this means that a wider range of season outcomes is possible. It is still true that the Spartans will most likely win between three and six games, but the real odds are closer to 60% than 85%.

There are two ways to look at this. From a glass-half-empty point of view, there is a chance that Michigan State is actually worse than the experts currently believe. My simulation suggests that there is a 18% chance of a final record no better than 2-10. That is a bit worse than the scenario where the preseason rankings are assumed to be accurate, in which case the odds are only 8%.

From a more optimistic point of view, my simulation gives the Spartans a 22% chance to win at least seven regular season games. In these scenarios, either Michigan State is a lot better than the experts currently believe, some of the Spartans' opponents are a lot worse than expected, the Spartans will be a bit lucky in 2026, or some combination of these three effects.

Regardless of the path, these odds for a satisfying season in East Lansing are better than the 6.8% odds that I calculate assuming that the preseason rankings are correct.

Also note that the simulation results give the Spartans a better chance to make a bowl game at the conclusion of the 2026 season. The simulated odds for a bowl game are 35%, compared to just 21% in the non-adjusted case.

Possible Michigan State Season Trajectories

If we assemble all of the information above, we can imagine several ways in which the 2026 season could unfold for the Spartans.

As the odds above show, it may be an uphill climb to get to the six wins needed to qualify for the Spartans' first bowl game since 2021. If this is going to happen, Michigan State is going to need to be better than expected, if not a lot better than expected, and the Spartans will likely need a bit of good fortune.

A glance back at Figure 2 shows why. Michigan State will likely only be clearly favored in the games against Toledo (+8.5) and Eastern Michigan (+14). These games are both likely wins. But nothing on the rest of the schedule is going to come easy. The Spartans will need to find at least four more wins to get to bowl eligibility.

Figure 2 clearly shows that the next four most likely wins are the home games against Northwestern (PK), Nebraska (-3), and Illinois (-3.5), and the road game at Rutgers (-3). Beating the two MAC teams and sweeping these four winnable games, three of which are at home, is the most likely path to return to bowl eligibility.

The simulation data give the Spartans between a 40% and 50% chance to win each of those four contests. Individually, those odds are not daunting, but math also tells us that the odds of winning all four of those games, assuming the current lines are correct, are just 3.6%.

But if the new Pat Fitzgerald version of the Spartans is better than expected, or if some of those opponents are worse, the odds for some or all of these four critical matchups would slide closer to toss-ups or games where Michigan State may actually be favored. In this scenario, the odds for Michigan State to sweep these four games would increase noticeably.

That said, the fact that all three of these critical games are at home is encouraging. In order for Michigan State to show the kind of program growth that coaches and fans expect, the Spartans need to beat teams of comparable ability at home. If a bowl game is in the cards for 2026, these are all approaching "must-win" game territory.

Even if the Spartans trip up in one or more of the six most winnable games on the schedule, there are still pockets of opportunity in the remaining half of the schedule.

That opportunity is greatest in the three games at Wisconsin (-6.5), at UCLA (-6.5), and versus Washington (-6.5). While the Spartans are likely to be decisive underdogs in all three games, the math here provides a more glass-half-full perspective. 

Based on these projected lines, there is actually a 69% chance that Michigan State pulls an upset in at least one of these three games. Those odds improve in scenarios where one of those three teams is not as talented as expected. It seems likely that any potential path to a bowl game would need to include at least one upset win in this trio of contests.

But do not rule out the possibility of a major upset saving or bolstering the Spartans' season. Michigan State could very well end up being close to a two-touchdown underdog or more in the three games at Notre Dame (-21), at Michigan (-13.5), and versus Oregon (-16). But even if this is true, there is an 33% chance that Michigan State would win at least one of those three games. 

With two of those games being emotional trophy-game rivalries and the other involving a team traveling roughly 2,300 miles from home and playing its seventh straight game, an upset would not be out of the question.

That all said, Spartan fans will likely find out fairly early in the season whether the postseason is in the cards. Five of the six most winnable games on the schedule fall in the first seven weeks of the season. Michigan State will likely need to have a record of at least 5-2 following the home game with Northwestern on October 17 in order to start dreaming of possible bowl locales.

Fans will learn a lot about the season prospects in just the first three weeks of the season. If the Spartans can dominate Toledo and Eastern Michigan by three to four touchdowns and are able to at least keep the road game in South Bend competitive into the fourth quarter, there should be significant reason for optimism.

However, if the Spartans struggle to beat the spread against the two MAC opponents and the game at Notre Dame is effectively over by halftime, it could be another long season in East Lansing.

In summary, a potentially satisfying 2026 Michigan State season could be built on a series of wins as outlined below. 

• Win the two "must win" games on the schedule versus Toledo and Eastern Michigan
• Win at least three of four contests versus Nebraska, Illinois, Northwestern, and at Rutgers
• Steal an upset win in at least one of the three games at Wisconsin, at UCLA, and versus Washington.
• For bonus points, steal an upset win at Notre Dame, at Michigan, or versus Oregon.

We have now explored Michigan State's schedule in detail, but what does this mean for the overall Big Ten race? Where are the Spartans most likely to finish? That will be the topic of the next installment of this series. Stay tuned.