Against All Odds, 2026 Week 3: Glasses in Various Stages of Fullness

Saturday night’s result left me conflicted. Michigan State went on the road to face No. 3 Notre Dame and lost by double digits. A little more than 10 years ago, that would have felt like a tremendous opportunity lost.

Plenty has changed over the past decade. The Spartans have had four head coaches and made only four bowl appearances during that span. The program has fallen on hard times, and Saturday’s loss was another reminder that Michigan State still does not measure up to the nation’s best teams.

Despite those realities, I could not help feeling encouraged by the performance.

The Spartans entered as nearly 30-point underdogs but lost by 17. Early in the fourth quarter, Michigan State had the ball near midfield, trailing 20-10 and driving with a chance to make it a one-score game.

That represents significant improvement from the last several times Michigan State faced elite competition. Consider the Spartans’ deficits after three quarters:

• 2025 vs. No. 3 Indiana: 35-10
• 2024 vs. No. 3 Ohio State: 38-7
• 2023 vs. No. 1 Ohio State: 38-3
• 2023 vs. No. 2 Michigan: 42-0
• 2022 vs. No. 4 Michigan: 19-7
• 2022 vs. No. 3 Ohio State: 38-7

Across those six games, the Spartans faced an average deficit of 28.2 points after three quarters.

The game could have been closer still. The Spartans lost the turnover battle by two, allowed two fourth-down conversions, committed two costly pass-interference penalties, dropped a wide-open touchdown pass, and had multiple starters helped off the field by medical personnel.

Yet they still covered the spread by more than 10 points. All things considered, that is borderline incredible.

I have always been a glass-half-full kind of guy. No one can feel truly good about a loss, but I cannot help feeling optimistic about the future. Spartans fans can take hope that, under Pat Fitzgerald, the program finally appears to be pointed in the right direction.

On Saturday night, the Spartans looked like a tough, well-coached team that caught few breaks and played with a sizable talent deficit. As Fitzgerald continues to stabilize and build the program, that gap should shrink.

The glass is nowhere near full, but for the first time in years, Michigan State appears to be adding water instead of springing leaks.

Week 3 Betting Results

It is time to review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds..

Figure 1: Week 3 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Eight teams overachieved in Week 3, including Northwestern, Oregon, Wisconsin, Duke, and Iowa.

From a glass-half-empty perspective, MSU still must face three of those eight teams.

Five teams notably underachieved but still won, including USC, Boston College, Missouri, and Cal.

Eight favorites lost outright in Week 3, well below the 12.5 upsets projected by my computer.

Table 1 summarizes the eight upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.

Table 1: Week 3 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week's upset projections.

The week’s biggest upset was Kentucky (+15) over Texas A&M on the road. Other notable upsets included West Virginia (+9.5) over Virginia, Mississippi State (+4) over South Carolina, and Ole Miss (+2.5) over LSU.

My algorithm had another rough week, going 3-8 (27%) on upset picks. That dropped its season record to 7-15 (32%), below the random-number benchmark of 36%.

FPI went 1-5 (17%) on upset picks, bringing its season record to 2-8 (20%). SP+ went 1-1 (50%) in Week 3 but is also a disappointing 2-8 (20%) for the season.

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

 

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 3 picks against the opening spread.

My computer went 3-3 (50%) on its recommended against-the-spread picks, bringing the season record to 7-15 (32%). I am optimistic that it will improve as the season progresses, but it must first climb out of the well it fell into in Week 2.

FPI went 6-7 (46%) and is 13-13 (50%) for the season. SP+ fared much better at 4-2 (67%), but its overall glass remains slightly less than half full at 16-17 (48.5%).

Across all 75 games, my algorithm went 37-38 (49%) ATS, FPI went 34-41 (45%), and SP+ went 41-23 (55%). For the season, my computer is 126-134 (48.5%) against the spread, FPI is 129-131 (49.6%), and SP+ is 131-129 (50.4%).

Table 3 shows the Week 3 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 3 point-total wagers

I was optimistic before the season that my revised methodology for point-total recommendations would improve the results. So far, that optimism has been warranted.

This week, my machine went 5-4 (56%) on point-total bets, bringing its season record to 22-18 (55%). SP+ again made no point-total recommendations, leaving its season record at 5-3 (62.5%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 3, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 3.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 3.

The Big Ten enjoyed a strong week, with no upset losses and conference teams covering in nine of 14 nonconference games. Four Big Ten teams beat the spread by more than two touchdowns.

Among the teams that did not cover, only Washington missed the number by more than 10 points.

When my computer accounts for all the action this season, along with preseason data that remains important but is steadily fading, four Big Ten teams rise to the top of the leaderboard.

No. 3 Ohio State has the second-best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game (36.2%) but the best odds to win the conference (23%). No. 6 Penn State (18.7%) and No. 5 Indiana (18.5%) have the next-best title odds.

The new dark-horse contender is No. 8 Iowa at 10.4%. The Hawkeyes have two shutout wins, which my algorithm always likes, sometimes too much.

A little farther down the leaderboard are No. 18 Nebraska (5.9%), which jumped 15 spots in my power poll, and No. 16 Northwestern (5.3%), which climbed 26 spots after routing Colorado by 34 points.

Both the Cornhuskers and the Wildcats jumped No. 23 USC (4%) after the Trojans tumbled 12 spots following an underwhelming performance at Rutgers.

Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans

Michigan State could not upset Notre Dame, but it covered the spread by more than 10 points. Even so, the Spartans slipped four spots to No. 49 in my latest power rankings because of other results, including those of previous opponents Toledo and Eastern Michigan, both of which failed to cover.

The Spartans’ expected win total has slid slightly to 6.38, corresponding to a 66% chance of reaching six wins and qualifying for a bowl game.

I now give MSU a 1.3% chance to win the Big Ten and a 3.8% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. For the über-optimists in the group, the Spartans’ national title odds are about 1 in 1,000.

In direct contrast to last week, several future Michigan State opponents had strong Week 3 performances. Despite MSU’s solid showing in South Bend, the road ahead looks a little tougher.

Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for Michigan State’s remaining nine games, alongside the preseason projections for comparison.

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Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following 2026, Week 3 and based on a 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Although the expected win total fell by less than half a game, my model now favors Michigan State in three additional games: home dates with Illinois (+0.5) and Washington (+5.5), and the season finale at Rutgers (+10).

The road game at Wisconsin (-1) and the home game against Northwestern (-4.5) have moved back into the likely-loss column.

This weekend’s game against Nebraska opened with the Huskers favored by 5.5 points, close to my computer’s 4.5-point projection. After Week 2, this matchup looked more like a toss-up.

In slightly better news, the projected spreads for road games at UCLA (-4.5) and Michigan (-6.5) moved in the Spartans’ direction, while the Oregon projection (-2) held steady.

Michigan State is not projected to be more than a touchdown underdog in any remaining game.

The next four weekends will be critical. Three games are at home, against Nebraska, Illinois, and Northwestern, and the road trip to Wisconsin is certainly winnable.

If Michigan State wins three of those four games, a bowl trip will be nearly assured. Even at 2-2, there is only a 7% chance that the Spartans then lose four straight against UCLA, Michigan, Washington, and Oregon.

The Spartans still will likely be heavily favored in the finale at Rutgers. If Michigan State can reach five wins, the Green and White will have an excellent chance to go bowling.

For the glass-half-full crowd, the Spartans have a 15% chance to finish at least 9-3 in the regular season, a 30% chance to finish 8-4 or better, and a 47% chance to finish at least 7-5.

For the pessimists, the odds that Michigan State finishes 5-7 or worse are 34%. The odds of a 4-8 record or worse are 18.5%.

Also, pessimists are no fun, and the rest of us talk about them behind their backs.

National Overview

Let’s take a quick spin around the country.

The upset bug struck SEC play as Kentucky stunned Texas A&M, Mississippi State knocked off South Carolina, and Ole Miss won the “Lane Kiffin Bowl” over LSU.

When the dust settled, my computer still had No. 2 Texas (31%) and No. 4 Alabama (20%) well ahead in the SEC race, even though neither team covered this week against UTSA and Florida State, respectively.

Six SEC teams sit in the next tier, with title odds ranging from 5.5% to 8%: No. 7 LSU, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 14 Mississippi State, No. 15 Tennessee, No. 17 Ole Miss, and No. 19 Florida.

Interestingly, the team that does not appear in the top half of my SEC leaderboard is Georgia. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 2 in the latest AP poll, but my computer has them down at No. 30 with just a 2.7% chance to win the SEC.

In the Big 12, my computer continues to be pessimistic about the entire conference. Utah jumped 15 spots to No. 12 in my power rankings after shutting out in-state rival Utah State. The Utes currently have the best odds to win the conference at 24%.

Texas Tech again failed to cover, this time at home against No. 41 Houston. As a result, the Red Raiders slipped to No. 33 in my power rankings, with an 11.5% chance to win the conference.

No. 29 Kansas State is the only other Big 12 team in my top 30. The Wildcats have the second-best conference odds at 12.3%, though they failed to cover against Tulane.

BYU is No. 9 in the AP poll, but, like Georgia, it sits much lower in my power rankings. The Cougars are No. 45, with a 6.8% chance to win the Big 12, sixth best in the conference.

In the ACC, No. 9 Miami remains the leader, with a 23.5% chance to win the conference. No. 13 Duke moved up nine spots in my power poll after crushing Stanford, and the Blue Devils gained 10 percentage points in conference odds, rising to 17%.

Fans of No. 20 Pittsburgh (14%) and No. 26 Louisville (11%) have more reason for optimism after their teams easily covered against Syracuse and SMU, respectively.

The weekend’s biggest ACC loser was No. 22 Virginia. A home upset loss to West Virginia dropped the Cavaliers 13 spots in my power poll and 16 percentage points in conference odds, to just 9%.

In Group of Six action, Table 6 updates the teams with the best odds to earn an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff.

Table 6: Group of Six Leaderboard following the action of Week 3

No. 36 Tulsa of the American Conference shut out East Texas A&M, impressing my computer enough to lift the Golden Hurricane to the top of the leaderboard with a 23.5% chance to claim a playoff spot.

Tulsa’s Week 1 win over Oklahoma State, which looked even better after the Cowboys upset Oregon, also gives the Golden Hurricane the best strength of record in the Group of Six at No. 13 overall.

Fellow conference member No. 57 South Florida has the second-best strength of record (No. 14) and the third-best playoff odds at 10.6%. The Bulls’ upset win at Army in Week 2 is carrying the water here.

No. 42 North Dakota State of the Mountain West has the second-best playoff odds at 19%, but the Bison slipped six spots in my power poll after failing to cover at Sacramento State.

No. 43 Boise State (10.5%) sits fourth after failing to cover against FCS opponent South Dakota.

No. 65 James Madison covered against San Diego State. The presumed Sun Belt favorite rounds out the top five with just under a 6% chance to return to the playoff.

In life, there are optimists and pessimists, but the realists use cold, hard numbers to make decisions. I will continue to bring that philosophy later this week in another installment of Bad Betting Advice.

https://spartansillustrated.com/articles/against-all-odds-week-3-michigan-state-football-betting-odds

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