Upon reflection, Michigan State’s 17-point loss to Nebraska on
Saturday evening gave me a distinct feeling of déjà vu. I entered the game optimistic
that the Green and White could keep it competitive and give themselves a solid chance
to win. I exited the stadium feeling a bit depressed.
This Michigan State team has little margin for error. To
compete with even a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team, the Spartans must be sharp
and must win most of the 50-50 plays.
Quite the opposite happened.
Instead, the Spartans were once again hampered by bad
bounces, including an 11-yard forward fumble that gave Nebraska a first down,
momentum-killing questionable calls, turnovers, and another wave of injuries to
key players.
All four factors mattered, and together they turned what
could, or perhaps should, have been a competitive game into a borderline blowout
at home.
But we have all been down this road before. Over the past
decade, Michigan State has found a nearly infinite number of strange ways to
lose football games. As a result, the record book shows a growing collection of
four- and five-win seasons with no postseason appearances.
This weekend felt like it could be the turning point Spartan
fans have awaited for half a decade. Instead, it feels like nothing has
changed. It was the same old story of bad luck and disappointment. That joke
isn’t funny anymore.
I firmly believe Pat Fitzgerald is the right coach to lead
the Spartans. Then again, I also believed that about Jonathan Smith and Mel
Tucker. Every time a new charming man arrives in East Lansing, the feeling is
that this time things will turn around. But it is fair to ask, “How soon is now?”
By nature, I am both optimistic and patient. I believe Michigan
State will find its way back to the upper half of the Big Ten sooner rather
than later. It is not time to panic.
Still, memories of the Spartans’ glory years under Mark
Dantonio grow more distant. The explanations, however valid, are starting to sound
a little too familiar. Stop me if you think you’ve heard this one before.
Week 4 Betting Results
It is time to review last week’s Bad Betting Advice,
beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the
figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.
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| Figure 1: Week 4 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
Sixteen teams overachieved in Week 4, including UCLA,
Toledo, Florida, James Madison, LSU, Arkansas, Virginia, Boise State, and
Georgia.
Five teams notably underachieved but still won, including SMU, Indiana, Tulane, and Florida State.
Ten favored teams lost outright in Week 4, again fewer than the 14.6 upsets projected by my computer.
Table 1 summarizes the 10 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.
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| Table 1: : Week 4 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week’s upset projections. |
The week’s biggest upsets were Wake Forest (+13) over Louisville, Wisconsin (+9.5) over Penn State, Minnesota (+9) over Washington, Cincinnati (+6.5) over Kansas State, Iowa (+4.5) over Michigan, UCF (+3) over TCU, and Oklahoma State (+1.5) over West Virginia. Obviously, some upsets are bigger than others.
My algorithm had another rough week, going 1-7 (12.5%) on upset picks. That dropped its season record to 8-22 (23%), a historic low for my computer. My methodology for upset picks is usually the most reliable of all of my betting metrics, but heaven knows it’s miserable now.
But the other computers are doing no better. FPI went 1-2
(33%) on upset picks, bringing its season record to 3-10 (23%). SP+ went 1-5
(17%) in Week 4, bringing its season tally to 3-13 (19%).
Overall, the low number of upsets this season and the computers’
collective failure to predict them represent an odd but likely related turn of
events. It really is strange.
Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 4 picks against the opening spread. |
Here, the performance was quite a bit better.
My computer went 3-1 (75%) on its recommended picks against the
spread, but its 10-16 (38.5%) season record remains a bit depressing.
FPI went 4-4 (50%) and is 17-17 (50%) for the season. SP+
was 1-0 for the week, bringing its year-to-date mark to .500 at 17-17.
Across all 71 games, my algorithm went 38-33 (53.5%) ATS,
FPI went 37-34 (52%), and SP+ went 38-33 (53.5%). For the season, my computer
is 164-167 (49.5%), FPI is 166-165 (50.2%), and SP+ is 169-162 (51.1%).
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| Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 4 point-total wagers |
This week, my machine went 3-3 (50%) on point-total bets,
bringing its season record to 25-21 (54%). SP+ got its only recommended pick
correct, thanks to a late Iowa touchdown that clinched the upset over Michigan.
SP+ is now 6-3 (67%) for the season on its curated set of over/under picks.
Both computers were 28-30 (48%) on the full set of total
bets this week. SP+ is currently leading my computer on overall over/under bets
by three games, 133-134 (49.8%) to 130-137 (48.7%) year-to-date.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
After Week 4, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.
All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.
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| Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 4. |
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| Table 5: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 4. |
It was a topsy-turvy week in Big Ten country, as three of
the conference’s eight games ended in upsets.
As mentioned above, Iowa edged Michigan, Wisconsin came from
behind to stun Penn State, and Minnesota fought off jet lag and a very late
kickoff time to upset Washington in Seattle.
Ohio State cruised to a 23-point win over Illinois but
failed to cover the spread. Indiana also failed to cover in a close shave at
home against Northwestern.
Oregon won big on the road at USC, while UCLA won even
bigger on the road at Maryland.
As a result, my computer now has No. 4 Ohio State (24.7%)
with the best odds to win the conference, just ahead of No. 6 Indiana at 22.5%.
UCLA jumped 27 spots to No. 12 in my power poll and now has
the third-best conference championship odds at 12.2%.
No. 11 Nebraska (9.9%), No. 17 Oregon (9%), and No. 13 Iowa
(8.6%) round out the current top six of my Big Ten leaderboard.
Wisconsin’s upset win in Happy Valley vaulted the Badgers 22
spots to No. 33 in my power poll and raised their conference championship odds
to 3.7%. Penn State (2.6%) sank to No. 18 and now sits below No. 15 Northwestern
(3.3%) on my Big Ten leaderboard.
Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans
For the first time this season, Michigan State significantly underperformed against the spread in its 17-point loss to Nebraska in East Lansing. Even so, the Spartans dropped only two spots in my power rankings, to No. 51.
The Spartans’ expected win total dropped by a full win, to 5.42. Michigan State now has just a 47% chance to reach six wins and qualify for a bowl game.
I now give MSU a 0.35% chance to win the Big Ten and a 1.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Just for kicks, the Spartans’ national title odds are about 1 in 4,200, only about four times less likely than drawing a defensive holding penalty on a punt.
Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for Michigan State’s remaining eight games, alongside the preseason projections for comparison.
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| Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following 2026, Week 4 and based on a 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference. |
The sad news for Michigan State is that each of its next four opponents overachieved in Week 4, making all four games look a little tougher.
I still project Michigan State as a very slight favorite against Illinois (+0.5), but next week’s game at Wisconsin (-6.5) and the contest with Northwestern (-5.5) in three weeks are now solidly in the underdog category.
Note that the initial spread for the game at Wisconsin appears to have opened with the Badgers as a 10-point favorite, which is a bit larger than my computer is projecting.
The road game at UCLA (-12.5) has moved into long-shot territory and now projects as the toughest game left on the Spartans’ schedule.
After the bye week, the road game at Michigan (-5.5) and the home game against Oregon (-6.5) also have the Green and White as underdogs by just under a touchdown. The good news is that Michigan State should be a solid favorite at home against Washington (+6) and at Rutgers (+6) to close the regular season.
With a 2-2 record, Michigan State needs to find four wins over the final eight games to become bowl eligible. The most likely path to get there is clear.
Michigan State needs to take care of business against Washington and Rutgers. The Spartans also need to win the toss-up game against Illinois in two weeks.
If they can do that, they will need only one more win. Michigan State projects as roughly a five- or six-point underdog in four games, so finding at least one upset in that stretch is reasonable.
The math agrees. Based on my projected spreads, there is less than a 20% chance that the Spartans lose all four of those games.
In fact, there is still a 27% chance the Spartans finish the
regular season 7-5 or better. Their odds of finishing 8-4 or better are 13%,
while the odds of 9-3 or better are 4.3%.
National Overview
Let’s take a quick spin around the country.
Nothing unexpected happened in the SEC this week, as the
favored team won both nonconference games and all seven conference games. That
includes No. 2 Texas’ close call at No. 16 Tennessee, No. 5 Alabama’s blowout
win over No. 36 South Carolina, and No. 3 LSU’s big win over No. 27 Texas
A&M.
No. 10 Florida also got a huge win at home over No. 22 Ole
Miss and No. 8 Georgia demolished No. 30 Oklahoma.
As a result, those five winning teams are the clear conference
favorites and have created some separation from the rest of the field.
Texas (31%) has the best odds to win the conference, with
Alabama (19%), LSU (15%), Georgia (13%), and Florida (10%) vying for the other spot
in the SEC Championship Game. No other team has better than a 10% chance to
reach the title game.
The Big 12 was a bit more volatile this week.
This may sound like a broken record, but No. 26 Texas Tech
failed to cover again, this time against No. 104 Sam Houston State from
Conference USA. No. 7 Utah, however, was able to cover on the road against No.
47 Iowa State.
The Utes (42.5% odds to win the Big 12) and Red Raiders
(14%) remain atop the conference leaderboard and are the only Big 12 teams in
my current top 30.
The current third-place team is No. 34 Baylor (6%), thanks
to a comfortable win over No. 85 Colorado. No. 40 BYU (6%) moved up five spots
in my power rankings without even playing this week.
Rounding out the top eight are No. 45 UCF (5.6%), which
upset No. 42 TCU; No. 44 Oklahoma State (5%), which upset No. 55 West Virginia;
No. 31 Houston (5%), which failed to cover against No. 74 Georgia Southern of
the Sun Belt; and No. 48 Cincinnati (3.6%), which improved to 4-0 with an upset
of No. 37 Kansas State.
No. 9 Miami remains the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC
(30%) after easily defeating No. 122 Central Michigan. Four other teams are in
a tight race for second.
No. 14 Virginia (14.5%), No. 20 Pittsburgh (14.3%), and No.
19 Duke (13%) are in solid position after blowout wins over FCS or lower-level
Group of Six opponents. No. 21 Clemson (13%) is also back in the race after a
surprisingly comfortable win at No. 75 California.
The big loser in the ACC was No. 38 Louisville, which was
upset by No. 53 Wake Forest and now has less than a 5% chance to make the ACC championship
game.
In Group of Six action, Table 6 updates the teams with the
best odds to earn an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff.
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| Table 6: Group of Six leaderboard after Week 4 |
No. 24 Boise State produced the weekend’s biggest Group of
Six win, beating No. 81 Western Michigan by 25 points on the road. As a result,
the Broncos are back atop the Group of Six leaderboard with just under a 30%
chance to earn a playoff bid.
No. 50 James Madison also improved its position with a
26-point win at No. 109 Old Dominion. The Dukes moved up to third place (12%
odds) on my Group of Six board, just behind idle No. 39 North Dakota State
(17.5%).
In the American Conference, No. 65 South Florida (8.7%) and
No. 68 UTSA (5.9%) currently have the best playoff odds. No. 71 Tulsa (2%) was
blown out at No. 64 Arkansas, resulting in a drop of more than 20 percentage points
in the Golden Hurricane’s playoff odds and a 35-spot fall in my power rankings.
Against all odds, we have reached the end for today and it
is time to take a bow. The numbers may be slightly less bleak than they look. Stay
tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis. If you have questions, just
ask. Before you know it, I will be saying “Bad Betting Advice, here we come.”
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