Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 2: Take Two!

“Cut!”

OK, everyone, that was a solid opening performance, but it is time for the second scene of Act I. The first scene went well, although we could use a little more rehearsal and polish before the real opening night next weekend. 

Scene 2 features a new supporting cast, but a familiar script. It is another chance to sharpen the execution, blocking, and timing before the more challenging material later in the show.

Once again, there should be plenty of movement, but it must come with purpose and intention. Hit those lines with intensity, listen for your cues, communicate clearly, and do not miss an entrance. Finish your assignments and avoid improvising at the wrong time. 

The theme here is familiar, too, except this scene is more avian and less aerospace. What is it with flight in this production? And why do the next few scenes introduce cranky Irishmen, agricultural day laborers, and literal wild animals? Who wrote this show?

No matter. The show must go on, and I am confident you can get through this scene with minimal mistakes. If you do, some of the understudies may get a little stage time, too. 

All right, places, everyone! Break a leg!

On second thought, please do not break a leg. Seriously. It is just an expression. No broken legs this weekend. Let us get through this scene with everyone healthy. 

Got it? Good. 

"Action!"

Will Michigan State Stay Perfect Versus Eastern Michigan?

Saturday's contest marks the 11th time that the Michigan State Spartans have faced the Eastern Michigan Eagles. The teams met three times prior to 1900 and seven additional times since 1996. The Spartans are a perfect 10-0 in that span.

Michigan State also has a strong record against the spread (ATS) versus Eastern. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS since 2002, having only failed to cover the 31-point spread in 2012. In all five of those most recent contests, Michigan State was at least a 21-point favorite.  

This year, the Spartans opened as 17.5-point favorites, and the line has remained within a point of that mark. That translates to just under a 90% chance of a Michigan State win straight up and gives Eastern Michigan its best odds against the Spartans since the 1800s. 

Both ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and the SP+ model project a slightly larger Michigan State win, by about 19 points. My model, however, is slightly more pessimistic. 

For the final cut, my computer projects a 14.4-point margin and a final score of Michigan State 31, Eastern Michigan 17. That result would put the combined score just under the current total of 49.5 points.

My official prediction is therefore to take the under and Eastern Michigan against the spread.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 gives a full summary of the Big Ten action in Week 2, including my projected scores, the opening point spreads, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 2, including my algorithm's projected scores. Teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. Teams shaded in red are projected to cover by FPI.

Every Big Ten team except Northwestern is in action this week. Indiana and Wisconsin are huge favorites over FCS opponents, while Nebraska, USC, Washington, and Penn State are favored by more than three touchdowns against Group of Six opponents.

Eight Big Ten teams, however, will face opponents from one of the other three power conferences. 

Oregon (-21.5) is not expected to be tested at Oklahoma State, while Iowa (-14.5) should handle rival Iowa State at home. The remaining six interconference matchups carry varying levels of intrigue.

The two headlining acts of the entire weekend are clearly Ohio State (-2) at Texas and Oklahoma at Michigan (+5.5). 

The winner in Austin will become an early front-runner for the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff and the national title. 

The Buckeyes are slight favorites in Las Vegas and by SP+, but my algorithm and FPI expect the Longhorns to protect their home field.

Eight days ago, Oklahoma at Michigan appeared to be another high-stakes, early-season battle between top-15 teams. The Wolverines' Week 1 struggles against a MAC opponent, however, changed the outlook. The Sooners are now 5.5-point road favorites, and two of the three computers expect Oklahoma to cover.

The other four Big Ten matchups against power-conference opponents involve teams farther down the current conference leaderboard. 

Illinois (-6.5) is a solid home favorite against Duke, but my algorithm is sounding an upset alert. By contrast, Minnesota (+1.5) is a narrow home underdog against Mississippi State, but both SP+ and my algorithm like the Golden Gophers to win.

Purdue (+4) is a slight home underdog against Wake Forest, and Rutgers (+4) is a road underdog at Boston College. In both cases, SP+ expects an upset.

The other Big Ten game that has my attention is UCLA (-10.5) against San Diego State. The Bruins were stronger than expected in Week 1, while the Aztecs allowed 20 points to an FCS opponent. My computer projects a UCLA win by more than 30 points.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 summarizes the other notable action across the college football landscape in Week 2.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 2, including my algorithm's projected scores. Teams shaded in red are projected to cover by FPI. Teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm or by both metrics.

Outside of the Big Ten, the action is not quite as exciting. None of the ACC contenders are expected to be in competitive games this weekend, but there is a trio of notable SEC/Big 12 matchups.

Texas A&M (-15.5) should be able to get past Arizona State at home, and Utah (-10.5) should be a safe bet against Arkansas. An upset or close call could signal trouble in the conference and playoff races for the Aggies or Utes. 

Missouri (-6.5) at Kansas is expected to be the most competitive game in that group, although neither team appears likely to contend for a conference title. 

In early conference action, Arizona visits BYU (-7.5), and my computer is projecting a potential upset that could alter the Big 12 race.

In Group of Six action, one of the most intriguing games is Memphis at Boise State (-8.5). The Broncos put up a surprisingly strong fight against Oregon, while Memphis is 2-0, including a Week 0 win over UNLV.

Those teams currently sit atop my Group of Six leaderboard, and the winner could claim an early hold on the final spot in the College Football Playoff.

I also have my eye on Georgia Southern (+23.5) from the Sun Belt as it travels to Clemson. All three computers project a much closer game than Las Vegas does, and my computer sees a contest that could come down to the wire.

Other games of note include South Florida at Army (-4) and UTSA (-1.5) at Texas State.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and picks against the spread. Figure 1 compares all of my computer's Week 2 projections with the opening Las Vegas spreads. 

Figure 1: Comparison of my algorithm's projected margins of victory with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 2.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in last week's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks are summarized in Table 3. After all, every production needs a few surprise cameos.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 2.

The computers have 11 total upset picks, including eight from my computer and six from SP+. Notable selections discussed above include Arizona over BYU and Duke over Illinois from my machine, as well as Texas over Ohio State from both my computer and FPI. 

A simple simulation of the week's games suggest that a total of 10.8 ± 2.8 upsets is most likely out of the 86 total games this weekend.

The games in Figure 1 that fall outside either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized in Table 4. The computer has produced a rather ambitious casting call this week..

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 2, listed in order of confidence score.

The computers recommend a whopping 24 picks against the spread this week, including 15 from my computer and 16 from SP+. A total of 11 picks involve FCS opponents.

Notable picks include Syracuse (+1) over California, Georgia Southern (+23.5) over Clemson, and Southern Miss (+29.5) over Auburn. 

Week 2 picks are historically among the most volatile because my algorithm weights Week 1 results equally with preseason data. Las Vegas appears to lean more heavily on preseason rankings at this stage, creating a wider gap between the computer and bookmaker projections. In other words, my model is already rewriting the script after one scene, while the oddsmakers are sticking closer to the original screenplay.

Finally, Table 5 summarizes my computer's recommended point-total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended Week 2 point-total bets. 

Unlike the upset selections and picks against the spread, the point-total list is relatively short, and all 13 picks come from my computer.

The notable picks here are for Oregon and Oklahoma State to score under 57.5 points and for Alabama and Kentucky to score over 49.5 points.

That is all the advice I have this week. The second take is in the can. Until next time, enjoy the games.