Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 4: High Fructose

The first few weeks of the college football season can be a time of excess. Although we are already a quarter of the way through the season, a few teams have enjoyed a steady diet of cupcakes.

For many teams, margins of victory have been high, players from deep on the bench have seen the field, and each weekend has brought the sweet feeling of a blowout victory. In many cases, however, those wins have provided little more than empty calories.

The Michigan State Spartans will face the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday. So far, the Huskers' résumé has the aftertaste of high-fructose syrup.

Nebraska has three home wins against Ohio, Bowling Green, and North Dakota by a combined score of 139-35. However, the better of the two MAC teams, Ohio, barely cracks the top 100 of my latest power poll, and North Dakota plays in the FCS.

The only FBS win by any Nebraska opponent this season is Ohio's four-overtime victory over Jacksonville State, which moved up from the FCS only four seasons ago. That is an overly generous portion of dessert.

The Spartans certainly partook in a couple of sweet treats to begin the season, but last week's trip to South Bend was more like a heavy helping of meat and potatoes.

It is still early, but Spartan fans like what Pat Fitzgerald is cooking in East Lansing. His high-energy style and gritty mentality have already rubbed off on the Michigan State players. After seeing what it is like to face a top-tier team in the Fighting Irish, the Spartans appear ready for the main course.

The key question is whether Nebraska has the stomach to match that energy in its first road game of the season, especially against a team that has already faced the most talented opponent on its schedule.

On paper, Nebraska should be the more talented team. But you cannot always believe what is on the label. Until a team is truly tested, no one knows what it is made of. The proof is in the pudding.

For Michigan State, Saturday's game begins a string of very winnable contests that will ultimately determine whether Fitzgerald's first season with the Green and White takes the cake or turns out to be a lemon.

A loss to Nebraska would certainly leave a bitter taste in Spartan fans' mouths. An upset win, however, would be a delicious treat.

Will Michigan State Experience the Sweet Taste of Victory in the Conference Opener?

The Michigan State Spartans and Nebraska Cornhuskers have met 14 times. The Spartans lost the first two meetings, in 1914 and 1920. Seventy-five years later, Michigan State was blown out in consecutive seasons by Tom Osborne's juggernaut from Lincoln.

The teams met for the fifth time in the 2003 Alamo Bowl, when coach John L. Smith and the Spartans fell to the Huskers.

Since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten, however, the series has been more competitive. Nebraska won the first two meetings as a conference member in 2011 and 2012, but Michigan State won four of the next six from 2013 through 2023. Nebraska won the most recent contest last year in Lincoln.

Michigan State is just 3-6 against the spread since 2011, with one upset win in 2023 and a one-point upset loss in Lincoln during the 2015 College Football Playoff season.

Overall, the Big Ten era of this series has been highly competitive. The largest opening point spread was last year's 11.5-point line, and six of the past eight games have been decided by five points or fewer.

This year's line opened with the Spartans as 4.5-point home underdogs. Historically, this spread implies a 37.5% chance of an upset win.

On a sour note, my computer's final-score projection is similar to the opening Las Vegas line. My official prediction is Nebraska 27, Michigan State 23. In that scenario, the Spartans would cover, but only by a sliver.

The over/under for this game is 48.5. My computer suggests that the teams will combine for slightly more, so I recommend taking the over.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten's Week 4 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening point spreads, and the computers' projected margins.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 3, including my algorithm's projected scores. Teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. Teams shaded in red are projected to cover by FPI.

Big Ten conference play opens in earnest this week with eight league games. In the two nonconference items on the menu, Rutgers (-42.5) is a huge favorite over FCS opponent Howard, and Purdue (+27.5) is a huge home underdog to Notre Dame.

Ohio State (-27) and Indiana (-22.5) are both huge favorites at home against Illinois and Northwestern, respectively. That said, all three computers have the road team covering in both contests.

The other five Big Ten games outside of East Lansing all have spreads under 10 points.

Penn State is off to a strong start, but the Nittany Lions have also enjoyed a steady diet of cream puffs. None of their opponents ranks among the top 80 in my current power rankings.

The Wisconsin Badgers are coming to State College as 9.5-point underdogs, but all three computers have Penn State covering.

The Washington Huskies are favored by almost as much at home against Minnesota (+9). In this case, my computer forecasts a game that will come down to the last bite.

Michigan is a 4.5-point favorite at home against Iowa, and the computers are split. FPI projects the Wolverines to cover, while SP+ likes the Hawkeyes. My computer goes one step further and foresees an Iowa road upset.

UCLA is leaving California for the first time this season, and the Bruins must fly across the country to face Maryland (+2.5) in College Park. All three computers are picking the Terrapins to enjoy the sweet taste of an upset win.

The most impactful game on this weekend's Big Ten menu is the West Coast showdown between Oregon and USC. Both teams have looked good at times and vulnerable at others this season.

My computer has both teams outside the top six in my latest Big Ten leaderboard. The loser may be out of the race. FPI and SP+ both have the Ducks surviving by a wafer-thin margin, while my computer is picking the Trojans in an upset.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 summarizes the other notable action across the college football landscape in Week 4.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Week 4 action, including my algorithm's projected scores. Teams shaded in red are projected to cover by FPI. Teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm or by both metrics.

Week 4 offers several intriguing SEC matchups that could significantly affect both the conference title race and the chase for 12 coveted playoff spots. It is a veritable all-you-can-eat buffet.

Texas sits at the top of my current SEC leaderboard. The Longhorns look to survive their first tough road test of the year at Tennessee (+5.5). My current second-place team, Alabama, has an easier task this week at home against South Carolina (+12).

The most interesting game features Ole Miss at Florida (-1.5). These teams sit third and fourth on my SEC leaderboard, and the winner will gain a clear advantage in the conference race.

Texas A&M and LSU both have upset stomachs after unexpected losses last week to Kentucky and Ole Miss, respectively. One of them will lose again this week when the Aggies visit the Tigers (-8.5).

I am also very curious to see how Oklahoma fares at Georgia (-13.5). The Bulldogs are healthy favorites at home, but my computer has them ranked No. 30 and is projecting an upset win by Oklahoma. Will Georgia prove my machine wrong?

The action is a bit more bland in the Big 12 this week. Preseason favorite Texas Tech should have no trouble against Sam Houston State (+38).

The two most likely challengers, Utah and Kansas State, both face potentially sticky road trips at Iowa State (+11) and Cincinnati (+6.5), respectively.

The ACC slate is even more tasteless. The three teams with the best current conference odds, Miami, Duke, and Pittsburgh, are all favored by more than 40 points.

The only vaguely appetizing matchup is Wake Forest at Louisville (-13). The Cardinal are hoping to keep pace with the rest of the pack.

In Group of Six action, several teams are simply hoping to avoid a résumé-killing upset. South Florida (-15.5) and New Mexico (-13) should both be safe against Bowling Green and New Mexico State, respectively.

In Sun Belt Conference action, James Madison (-4.5) needs to pass an early road test at Old Dominion to stay in the race.

Two other contests could have massive Group of Six implications.

Boise State was the preseason favorite to claim a playoff spot and remains the Group of Six team receiving the most votes in the current AP poll. The Broncos travel to Kalamazoo to face Western Michigan (+8) in what is likely a playoff elimination game.

The other team to watch is Tulsa of the American Conference. The Golden Hurricane upset Oklahoma State in Week 1. This week, it has its sights set on another Power Four upset when it travels to Arkansas (+8).

All three computers have Tulsa covering. My computer goes even farther, suggesting that Tulsa will win straight up.

Picks of the Week

The previous sections highlighted several potential upsets and picks against the spread. Figure 1 compares all of my computer's Week 4 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines. 

Figure 1: Comparison of my algorithm's projected margins of victory with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 3

A brief explanation of how to read these figures appears in the Week 1 edition of Bad Betting Advice. This week's upset picks are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 4.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 4.

There are 14 upset picks on the board this week. My algorithm has eight, SP+ has six, and FPI has three.

My simulation of this week's action suggests that 14.6 ± 3.1 upsets is the most likely outcome. 

Each week this season has produced fewer upsets than expected. Overall, there is a deficit of 11 upsets relative to expectation. One of these weeks, we are likely to see a flood of underdog victories as the numbers regress to the mean.

The most notable upset picks this week are Oklahoma over Georgia, Tulsa over Arkansas, Western Michigan over Boise State, Iowa over Michigan, Maryland over UCLA, USC over Oregon, and San Diego State over Toledo.

The games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines make up the suggested bets against the spread. Table 4 summarizes those selections alongside the analogous picks based on my analysis of the FPI and SP+ data.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 4, listed in order of confidence score.

Together, the computers recommend 11 picks against the spread. FPI is once again the boldest, with eight selections. My algorithm has four picks, while my analysis of SP+ data produces just one.

The notable selections are Tulsa (+8) to cover versus Arkansas, Sam Houston State (+38) to cover versus Texas Tech, and Mississippi State (-3.5) to cover versus Missouri.

Finally, Table 5 summarizes my computer's recommended point-total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended Week 3 point-total bets. 

My computer offers six point-total bets, including Wake Forest and Louisville to combine for more than 58.5 points.

For the first time in three weeks, my analysis of SP+ data produces a single suggestion: Iowa and Michigan to score more than 37.5 points.

That is all the advice I have this week. I hope it satisfies your appetite without leaving too bittersweet an aftertaste. Until next time, enjoy the games.

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