Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 5: Into the Wild

Just a few weeks ago, Michigan State’s season seemed young and full of optimism. Even after a closer-than-expected loss at Notre Dame in Week 3, the future in East Lansing looked bright.

Then came a wild, dispiriting home loss to Nebraska. Add the news that starting running back Cam Edwards, Michigan State’s best offensive weapon, will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, and Spartan Nation has been left disenchanted.

At times like these, it can help to pause, reflect, and get away from it all. Maybe the answer is to pack some gear into a magic bus and set forth for the wilds to the north and west.

That is where the Spartans are headed this week: into the wilds of Camp Randall to face a pack of ill-tempered members of the weasel family. A few weeks ago, this matchup looked manageable. After all, Michigan State gave Notre Dame a better fight than Wisconsin did when those teams met in Week 1.

But last week, the Badgers mounted a frantic comeback in State College and took down Penn State. Now that they have tasted Nittany Lion, the Badgers may be hungry for Greek food. A predator cannot survive on cheese alone.

The question is whether Michigan State is properly equipped to survive this adventure in the woods and fend off the territorial carnivores on their home turf. The Spartans showed toughness during the first month of the Pat Fitzgerald era, but with some gear damaged and key supplies left far behind, one has to wonder whether they have enough in reserve to make it through.

College football is a wild game, and sometimes a trip into the wilderness can awaken a team’s survival instincts. Wisconsin will arrive confident. Michigan State may arrive like a wounded animal, which could make the Spartans especially dangerous. A win by the home team is certainly not guaranteed.

Beating Wisconsin will be difficult, but if the Spartans survive the trip, the path ahead will suddenly look much brighter.

A third consecutive loss, however, would leave Michigan State wandering near the bottom of the Big Ten, with little to forage for as its bowl hopes dwindle and the weather turns cold.

Either way, the Spartans cannot stay in the wilderness forever. Saturday will tell us whether they are ready to rise and begin finding their way back home.

Can Michigan State End the Two-Game Skid in Madison?

Michigan State and Wisconsin have met 55 times, with the Spartans holding a 32-23 series lead.

The teams met five times from 1913 through 1925, with Wisconsin winning four of the first five contests. The series resumed in 1954, after Michigan State joined the Big Ten. The Spartans dominated the next four decades, posting a 22-8 record.

Once Wisconsin coaching legend Barry Alvarez got the program rolling, however, the Badgers became a much more formidable opponent. Alvarez won four of six meetings from 1993 through 2000, beginning with a milestone victory over George Perles and the Spartans in Tokyo.

Since 2001, the series has been even, with seven wins apiece, while Michigan State holds a narrow 8-6 edge against the spread. None of those games carried a spread larger than 10 points, and half ended in upsets. That group includes Michigan State victories in Madison in 2001 and 2012, the latter marking the Spartans’ most recent road win in the series.

This year, the hometown Badgers are favored by 10 points, implying roughly a 23% chance of a Michigan State upset.

That matches the largest spread in the series this century, set when Michigan State last visited Madison in 2019. The Spartans lost 38-0.

Although the Spartans are reeling after two consecutive losses, I expect Fitzgerald to have them ready. I also expect some of the bad luck and bad bounces from the past two weeks to begin evening out.

At least to a degree, all three computer systems I track agree. Each projects Michigan State to cover the 10-point spread, although none predicts an outright upset.

My computer’s final score prediction is Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 21. That score also points to the over, with the total set at 44.5.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 5 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the computers’ projected margins.

I have updated the table so the color scheme identifies which computers are picking each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.

Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.

Table 1: Big Ten Week 5 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Each team’s color reflects the combination of computer predictions against the spread. Upset picks appear in italics, and recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.

Oregon and UCLA are both in the top six of my Big Ten leaderboard, and both are on vacation, possibly enjoying some wilderness camping. The rest of the conference has eight league games.

Conference favorites Ohio State and Indiana are both on the road. Indiana (-23.5) should make short work of Rutgers, but Ohio State (-14.5) faces a tougher test at Iowa. All three computers expect Indiana and Iowa to cover.

Nebraska is one of four undefeated teams remaining in the conference and sits fourth on my leaderboard. The Cornhuskers (-12.5) should handle visiting Maryland.

The other four games outside Madison should be competitive, although none is likely to affect much beyond non-playoff bowl positioning.

Illinois (-9.5) must avoid a home upset against Purdue to remain on track for bowl eligibility. USC (-9.5) is in a similar, slightly stronger position against Washington.

Michigan (-6.5) could play itself into real trouble if it stumbles at Minnesota in its first road game of the season.

The most intriguing and potentially competitive game sends Penn State (-3.5) to Northwestern. The Nittany Lions appeared headed toward playoff and Big Ten title contention before blowing a late home lead against Wisconsin.

Northwestern, meanwhile, has looked surprisingly strong in a rout of Colorado and a close loss at Indiana. My computer ranks the Wildcats No. 11, high enough to trigger an upset alert this week.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 summarizes the other notable Week 5 action across college football using the same format as Table 1.

Table 2: : Other notable Week 5 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Each team’s color reflects the combination of computer predictions against the spread. Upset picks appear in italics, and recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.

The SEC slate is fairly tame this weekend. Texas has a bye, LSU faces FCS opponent McNeese State, and Georgia (-24.5) is favored by more than three touchdowns at home against Vanderbilt.

Contenders Alabama (-4.5) and Florida (-4.5), however, face potentially tricky road tests at Mississippi State and Missouri, respectively. The computers generally expect both the Crimson Tide and Gators to win and cover. An upset could put a major dent in either team’s conference title and playoff hopes, leading to some long nights in Tuscaloosa or Gainesville.

In Big 12 action, current favorite Utah has a bye, while its most likely challenger, Texas Tech (-14.5), is expected to cover for the first time this season at Colorado.

Three other notable conference games feature teams trying to remain dark-horse contenders.

Baylor (+4.5) is an underdog at Arizona State, but the Bears sit third on my Big 12 leaderboard, and all three computers forecast an upset.

BYU (-6.5) sits just behind Baylor and will try to avoid an upset at TCU. My computer likes the Horned Frogs outright.

Houston (-11.5) hosts UCF in a matchup of 3-1 teams fighting to stay on the lead lap. All three computers like the Golden Knights to cover, but not to win.

The biggest ACC game, and perhaps the biggest game nationally, sends conference favorite Miami (-17.5) to Clemson. Surprisingly, my computer likes the Tigers in an upset. If Clemson does get the win, there may be no ceiling on the chaos that follows in the ACC.

Virginia sits second on my ACC leaderboard. The Cavaliers (-3) must pass a stiff road test at Florida State to stay there.

Third-place Pittsburgh (+5.5) faces an even bigger challenge at Virginia Tech. Even so, my computer and FPI both pick the Panthers to pull the upset.

In Group of Six action, the status quo is likely to hold for another week because the three leading candidates for the final playoff spot are all favored by more than two touchdowns at home.

Boise State (-20.5), North Dakota State (-20.5), and James Madison (-14.5) are expected to beat Utah State, Wyoming, and Marshall, respectively, in conference play.

The American Conference has three games that should clarify which team can make a case on Selection Sunday.

UTSA (-12) is expected to win at Rice. South Florida (-6) should be tested by Temple, while Tulsa (-1.5) and North Texas could go down to the wire.

Picks of the Week

The previous sections highlighted several potential upsets and picks against the spread. Figure 1 compares my computer’s Week 5 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines. 

Figure 1: My algorithm’s projected margins of victory compared with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 5.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures appears in the Week 1 edition of Bad Betting Advice. This week’s upset picks are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Upset picks for Week 5.

There are 15 upset picks on the board this week, and my algorithm contributes 14 of them. SP+ agrees with four of my picks. FPI agrees with six and adds one unique selection.

My simulation suggests that the most likely outcome this week is 14.7 ± 3.1 upsets.

Despite my algorithm’s unprecedentedly poor performance on upsets, it continues to go buck wild with these picks. This is also the first week I have run the numbers without preseason rankings. The data now reflects only each team’s on-field performance. That tends to create extra surprises at this point in the season, and some of them prove prophetic.

The top upset on the board, Clemson (+17.5) over Miami, certainly fits that category. Is my algorithm seeing something in the numbers that the human eye does not yet see?

Other notable upset picks include Cincinnati (+7.5) over Arizona, TCU (+6.5) over BYU, NC State (+6) over Louisville, Pittsburgh (+5.5) over Virginia Tech, Baylor (+4.5) over Arizona State, Kentucky (+3.5) over South Carolina, and Northwestern (+3.5) over Penn State.

The games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines are the suggested bets against the spread. Table 4 summarizes those selections alongside comparable picks based on my analysis of FPI and SP+.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 5, listed by confidence score.

Together, the computers recommend 15 picks against the spread. My computer offers nine selections, while FPI and SP+ each offer six.

Notable Week 5 selections include James Madison (-14.5) to cover against Marshall, Nebraska (-12.5) to cover against Maryland, Florida (-4.5) to cover against Missouri, and Virginia (-3) to cover against Florida State.

Finally, Table 5 summarizes my computer’s recommended point-total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended Week 5 point-total bets. 

My computer has four picks, while SP+ has two. All six expect more offense than the market projects.

The notable Week 5 totals are Kentucky and South Carolina to score more than 52.5 combined points, and Florida and Missouri to score more than 56.5.

That concludes this week’s field guide to bad betting, and we have reached the end of the road. Until next time, pack carefully, venture into the wild at your own risk, and remember: Under the hard sun of the betting wilderness, the house is always the apex predator. Enjoy the games.

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