Bad Betting Advice, Week 3: Four Leaf Clover

As the Michigan State football team prepares to face Notre Dame's shamrock-loving Fighting Irish, Spartans fans will likely see more than a few references to four-leaf clovers this weekend.

My model currently ranks Michigan State No. 46 and Notre Dame No. 1 in my latest power poll. As a result, the Spartans' chances of leaving South Bend with a victory are slim. Still, the four-leaf clover offers a useful framework for imagining how an upset might happen.

The four leaves of a four-leaf clover traditionally represent faith, hope, love, and luck. If the Spartans are to pull off this upset, they will likely need all four.

The first leaf represents faith, which in this case means trust in brighter days. With the arrival of new coach Pat Fitzgerald and generally positive results through two weeks, Spartans fans have reason to believe better days are on the horizon.

The second leaf represents hope, or optimism and the courage to look forward. If the Spartans are to have a chance Saturday night, they must first believe.

Based on my observations of Fitzgerald and his interactions with his players, I expect the Spartans to take the field believing they can win, regardless of the odds.

The third leaf represents love, or connection and care for others. In football terms, the Spartans must communicate, trust one another, and play as one unit.

The fourth leaf represents luck, or rare and unexpected fortune breaking your way. Faith, hope, and love matter in a potential upset, but let's be honest: Michigan State will almost certainly need a little luck, and probably a lot of it.

If the Spartans win the turnover battle, benefit from a couple of favorable bounces, deliver on special teams, and get most of the 50-50 calls, their chances rise substantially.

Fans at home can help, too. Dust off those rabbits' feet, turn the horseshoes upright, drop a coin into the wishing well, and make sure that lucky pair of socks (you know the ones) is clean and ready.

If all else fails, the three leaves of the more common shamrock traditionally symbolize the Christian Trinity. If you are so inclined, a little prayer may be in order, too.

In a matchup like this, every little bit helps.

Can Michigan State Pull Off a Huge Upset in South Bend?

Saturday night marks the 80th meeting in the Michigan State-Notre Dame rivalry and the Spartans' first chance to reclaim the Megaphone Trophy since 2017. Only Purdue (89 games), USC (96), and Navy (98) have faced the Fighting Irish more often. Michigan, at 118 meetings, is the only opponent Michigan State has played more frequently than Notre Dame.

Michigan State is 29-49-1 all time against the Fighting Irish. USC (38) is the only program with more victories over Notre Dame than Michigan State, while Michigan is the only program with more all-time wins over the Spartans than the Irish.

The rivalry's history has featured plenty of swings in fortune.

Notre Dame dominated the early phase of the rivalry, going 13-2 against Michigan State from 1897 through 1921. When the series resumed in 1948, the Spartans quickly gained the upper hand, posting a 13-8-1 record through 1968. That stretch included the famous 10-10 tie in the 1966 "Game of the Century."

The tables turned from 1969 through 1994, when the Irish again dominated the Green and White. Notre Dame won 20 of the 24 meetings in that span.

After a brief hiatus, the series resumed in 1997. Michigan State is 11-8 since then, although the Spartans have lost four of the past five meetings dating to 2011.

Michigan State has covered the spread in nine of the past 15 meetings. Still, the line has rarely exceeded 10 points since 2001. The opening spread of Notre Dame minus 29.5 is the largest in my rivalry database. The second-largest came in 2009, when Notre Dame was favored by 11 points.

Historically, a spread that large gives Michigan State a little less than a 2% chance to win in South Bend. For context, that is only slightly better than the average No. 16 seed's chance of beating a No. 1 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Then again, UMass faced a similar challenge when it visited Rutgers as a 30.5-point underdog and left with a 37-21 victory. Michigan State's estimated chances are also about 100 times better than the odds of finding a four-leaf clover in the wild. Spartans fans have that going for them, too.

Can lightning strike twice? Absolutely. Will it strike twice?

Unfortunately, my heartless computer does not think so. Its official prediction is Notre Dame 39, Michigan State 11.

In other words, the computer favors the Spartans to cover the spread by the narrowest margin. It also favors the under at 53.5 points.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten's Week 3 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening point spreads, and the computers' projected margins.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 3, including my algorithm's projected scores. Teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. Teams shaded in red are projected to cover by FPI.

All 18 Big Ten teams are in action this weekend, but 10 are favored by at least 25 points against FCS or lower-tier Group of Six opponents.

Wisconsin is a 24.5-point favorite against Eastern Michigan. It will be interesting to compare the Eagles' performance in Madison with their showing in East Lansing last weekend.

Big Ten play also begins this week as Purdue visits UCLA (-13.5), and USC travels to Rutgers (+24.5). An upset in either game would be surprising.

Beyond Michigan State's trip to Notre Dame, two other nonconference games merit attention.

Colorado visits Northwestern (-3.5), and Virginia Tech travels to Maryland (+3). Neither Big Ten team is expected to challenge for the conference title, but both have outperformed their preseason rankings so far.

Northwestern visits East Lansing in a month, so it will be worth watching whether the Wildcats continue to punch above their weight before meeting the Spartans.

Michigan State does not face Virginia Tech this season, but the game marks former Penn State coach James Franklin's return to the Big Ten. That alone makes it worth a look.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 summarizes the other notable action across the college football landscape in Week 3.

Table 2: Summary of other notable Week 3 action, including my algorithm's projected scores. Teams shaded in red are projected to cover by FPI. Teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm or by both metrics.

In SEC action, Texas is unlikely to be challenged by in-state opponent UTSA, but Alabama's matchup with Florida State (+18.6) is slightly more intriguing. Both teams sit near the top of my SEC board, but each must play well to stay there.

The more interesting SEC action features a pair of conference clashes: Auburn hosts Florida (-2.5), and Ole Miss hosts LSU (-2.5). Despite identical spreads, my computer forecasts an Auburn upset and a double-digit LSU victory.

In Big 12 action, most of my projected contenders are favored by more than 18 points against lower-tier opponents. Still, I have my eye on Kansas State (-19.5), which hosts an always-dangerous Tulane team. The Wildcats have outperformed expectations and climbed to No. 23 in my current power poll. Can they keep rolling?

BYU should be safe as a 20.5-point road favorite against Colorado State, but I said the same thing last week about Oregon at Oklahoma State.

Texas Tech (-9.5) hosts Houston to open conference play for both teams. The Red Raiders have been underwhelming so far, and I am looking for signs of a turnaround. Otherwise, they may simply be the borderline Top 25 team they now appear to be rather than the playoff contender many expected.

In the ACC, Virginia is off to a strong start and hopes to sustain it while hosting West Virginia (+9.5).

The weekend's biggest ACC game sends SMU to Louisville (-2). If the Mustangs earn the mild upset, their remaining schedule is manageable enough to put them on a glide path toward the ACC championship game.

In Group of Six action, the two teams atop my leaderboard, North Dakota State and Boise State, are favored by more than 20 points. A few other teams are also worth tracking.

Western Michigan (-11.5) is a solid road favorite against Rice. A decisive win would keep the Broncos in the chase for a potential playoff spot.

In the American Conference, I am curious to see whether North Texas can score an upset at Texas State (-3). If so, the Mean Green will strengthen their case as a conference contender and remain relevant in the playoff race.

In the Mountain West, New Mexico has emerged as the most likely challenger to North Dakota State. The Lobos are substantial underdogs at Oklahoma (-21.5), but a competitive performance would signal that they are legitimate conference and playoff contenders.

Picks of the Week

The previous sections highlighted several potential upsets and picks against the spread. Figure 1 compares all of my computer's Week 3 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines. The machines are trying to identify which rainbows might lead to pots of gold.

Figure 1: Comparison of my algorithm's projected margins of victory with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 3.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures appears in last week's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks are summarized in Table 3. 

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 3.

There are 13 upset picks on the board this week, and 11 come from my algorithm, which is clearly feeling lucky. FPI and SP+ each contribute one unique upset pick. Overall, FPI has six upset selections, while SP+ sees only two.

My simulation of this week's action suggests that 12.5 ± 2.9 upsets is the most likely outcome.

The most notable selections are North Carolina over Clemson, Mississippi State over South Carolina, Colorado over Northwestern, Maryland over Virginia Tech, Auburn over Florida, and SMU over Louisville.

The games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines make up the suggested bets against the spread. Table 4 summarizes those selections alongside the analogous picks from FPI and SP+.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 3, listed in order of confidence score.

Together, the computers identify 22 picks against the spread. FPI is the boldest, with 15 suggestions. SP+ offers seven, while my algorithm has six.

The notable selections are Duke (-10) to cover against Stanford, Texas A&M (-15) against Kentucky, Akron (+26.5) against Minnesota, and Northern Iowa (+40.5) against Iowa.

Also note that FPI and SP+ both have the Portland State-Oregon game on the board, but the machines strongly disagree on which team will cover.

Finally, Table 5 summarizes my computer's recommended point-total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended Week 3 point-total bets. 

Once again, SP+ offers no point-total picks, but my algorithm has nine. Eight favor the over, including several Big Ten games. The lone under is UTEP and Michigan to combine for fewer than 49.5 points.

That is all the advice I have this week. Until next time, enjoy the games, and good luck finding your pot of gold.

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