Against All Odds, 2026 Week 6: Still Ill? (Reprise)

There are plenty of analogies for the 2026 Michigan State football team. Most recently, I compared the struggling Spartans to an ailing patient who appeared to be recovering from a temporary illness. I expected them to play well Saturday and beat the visiting Fighting Illini.

Halfway through the second quarter, I was prepared to declare the patient deceased. The Spartans trailed Illinois 17-0. Their offense had run exactly six plays and possessed the ball for less than four minutes. Illinois had outgained Michigan State 216-8.

Spartan Stadium felt like a funeral home. At best, the Spartans were still ill.

Then, beginning with Michigan State's third drive, the momentum turned. From that point through the end of regulation, the Spartans outgained Illinois 279-190 and outscored the Fighting Illini 31-14.

More important was the fight the Spartans showed. They scratched, clawed, and chipped away at the Illinois lead. When the Illini answered in the fourth quarter with a seven-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to restore a two-possession margin, Michigan State did not fold. The Spartans marched down the field for a touchdown of their own to keep the game within reach.

That passion and grit were not limited to the players. Coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff continued to dial up aggressive, creative plays, including an onside kick that should have worked if not for a bad call and a bizarre sequence of reviews by the officials.

The sequence only added fuel to the fire. Fitzgerald was animated on the sideline, firing up the crowd and his players. He even unveiled a distinctive hand signal to convey his opinion of the final ruling.

For better or worse, it is impossible to imagine Jonathan Smith flipping the officials the bird. For a lot of Spartans fans, this was confirmation that the right man is on the sideline to lead the Green and White.

In the end, however, Michigan State finished one play short of a homecoming victory. The Spartans are 2-4, and, as we will see later, their postseason prospects are headed nowhere fast.

Spartans fans have returned to their favorite emo corner of Spotify to drown their sorrows. Too many Sundays over the past few years have been silent and gray. Four straight losses feel like a spit in the eye.

Yes, the current state of Michigan State football is depressing. Yet, despite the loss, the final 38 minutes still gave me hope. Maybe it is just me, but even the most melancholy song can lift the spirits in an odd, ironic way. There are brighter sides to football, even if we have not seen them very often over the last few years.

When it comes to 2026, I could argue that I know it's over. We cannot cling to the old dreams anymore. But Saturday night offered a glimpse of a brighter long-term future under Fitzgerald, and I suspect plenty of Spartans fans saw it, too.

When it comes to Spartans fandom, there is a light that never goes out. There is no reason to panic..

Week 6 Betting Results

Let us review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 6 results, showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Twelve teams overachieved in Week 6, including Oregon State, Ole Miss, Wake Forest, Arizona, Western Michigan, Missouri, Louisville, and Notre Dame.

No teams notably underachieved and still won. As in Week 5, every significant underachiever lost outright.

For the second straight week, there were more upsets than expected. That follows an odd four-week stretch with a notable shortage of surprises. There have been 74 upsets relative to the opening spread this season, still slightly below the expected total of 79.7 through Week 6.

Table 1 summarizes the 19 upsets that took place this week and compares them with last week’s picks. 

Table 1: Week 6 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week's upset projections.

The week's biggest upsets were Buffalo (+18) over Toledo, South Carolina (+14.5) over Florida, UCLA (+12.5) over Oregon, Oklahoma (+10.5) over Texas, Kentucky (+10) over LSU, Georgia Tech (+6.5) over Duke, Purdue (+4.5) over Minnesota, North Carolina (+3.5) over Pittsburgh, Iowa (+2.5) over Washington, Houston (+2.5) over Kansas State, and Georgia (+1.5) over Alabama.

My algorithm had another strong week, going 6-7 (46%) and improving its season record to 24-33 (42%).

FPI (2-3) and SP+ (3-2) also had strong weeks. FPI is now 12-14 (46%) for the season, while SP+ is 10-15 (40%). Percentage-wise, my benchmark systems are performing well, but my computer has produced at least twice as many correct picks.

Table 2 shows the three systems’ results against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 6 picks against the opening spread.

My computer went 3-1 (75%) for the week, pushing its season record above .500 at 20-18 (53%). FPI got its lone pick correct to move to 22-26 (46%), while SP+ split its two picks and stands at an impressive 23-18 (56%).

Across all 58 FBS games on this week's playlist, my computer went just 27-31 (47%), while FPI (33-25, 57%) and SP+ (34-24, 59%) fared much better.

For the season, my computer is just below .500 at 223-225 (50%). FPI is slightly better at 229-219 (51%), and SP+ leads the trio at 239-209 (53%).

As mentioned in Bad Betting Advice, there were no official point total bets on the board this week.

For the full slate, my computer went just 26-32 (45%) for the week, while SP+ performed much better at 33-25 (57%). For the season, both systems have identical 186-195 (49%) records.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 6, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 3 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 4 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 6.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 6.

The Big Ten schedule produced a trio of upsets this week, as UCLA (+12.5), Iowa (+2.5), and Purdue (+4.5) defeated Oregon, Washington, and Minnesota, respectively.

Indiana also fought off upset-minded Nebraska on the road to move to 6-0.

My computer still gives No. 3 Ohio State the best odds to win the Big Ten at 29%. Just behind the Buckeyes are No. 6 Indiana (27%) and No. 8 UCLA (24%).

One important distinction is that Ohio State faces a more difficult remaining schedule than either Indiana or UCLA. The Buckeyes still must visit Nebraska and Indiana, with home games against Oregon and Northwestern in between, before closing the season at home against rival Michigan.

Outside of Ohio State, Indiana's most difficult remaining game is at Michigan. UCLA also has to travel to Michigan, but the only game on the Bruins' schedule with a projected spread below 10 points is next week's home game against No. 15 Wisconsin.

Speaking of the Badgers, No. 15 Wisconsin had the week off, but it is the only other Big Ten team with better than a 5% chance to win the conference. The Badgers' current title odds are 8.5%.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, No. 39 USC defeated No. 33 Penn State to move to 6-1, but the Trojans likely will be favored in only one more game, against No. 70 Maryland. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are 0-3 in conference play but have a much softer back half of the schedule and could still finish 9-3.

Now that we have reached the midpoint of the season, it is also time to consider potential at-large berths in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State (61%), Indiana (64%), and UCLA (59%) each have a better than 50% chance to make the 12-team field.

Wisconsin (23%), No. 11 Northwestern (23%), No. 12 Nebraska (16%), and No. 24 Iowa (15%) also have reasonable odds.

By expected value, the Big Ten is projected to earn 2.8 playoff berths.

Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans

The Illinois game was essentially a must-win for Michigan State to have a realistic chance of reaching the six victories needed for bowl eligibility.

But the Spartans did not win, and now the odds are looking rather sickly.

The loss to the Fighting Illini dropped the Spartans' expected win total to 4.3. Their odds of reaching at least six victories are now just 18%.

I cannot say for sure that Michigan State is mathematically eliminated from the Big Ten race, but in the most recent set of 50,000 simulations, the Spartans failed to reach the Big Ten Championship Game even once and qualified for the playoff only once.

Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for Michigan State’s remaining six games, alongside the preseason projections and last week’s values for comparison.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State’s remaining games after Week 6 of the 2026 season, based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Last week’s odds are shown for comparison.

Michigan State is projected to be a double-digit underdog in its next two games, against No. 11 Northwestern (-12) and No. 8 UCLA (-19.5). Based on the odds in Figure 2, there is only a one-in-four chance that the Spartans spring an upset in either game before the Halloween weekend bye.

That said, the actual line for next weekend's game against Northwestern opened with the Spartans as only 8.5-point underdogs, so the true odds may be a little better. Still, it is a long shot for the Green and White to enter November with a record better than 2-6.

If that comes to pass, the Spartans' only path to 6-6 will require winning their final four games. The good news is that Michigan State likely will be favored at home against No. 86 Washington (+5) and at No. 105 Rutgers (+6.0). The Spartans, however, probably will be underdogs in the other two contests.

Michigan State will travel to Ann Arbor after the bye to face No. 58 Michigan (-5). If the Spartans can use the week off to heal, a rivalry upset against a team struggling almost as much as they are is certainly possible. Does the body rule the mind, or can belief drag a battered roster across the finish line? I don't know, but stranger things certainly have happened in this rivalry.

That leaves the Nov. 21 game against No. 25 Oregon (-8). The Ducks have struggled more than expected. By the time they board the plane for East Lansing, they will have played six straight games against UCLA, Nebraska, Illinois on the road, Northwestern, Ohio State on the road, and Michigan.

If the Ducks are a quart low after that gauntlet, the Spartans may have a chance. It may not look like the old days anymore, when the prospects of six wins were brighter, but the schedule still leaves a sliver of light.

National Overview

Let’s close things out with a quick spin around the country.

It was a big weekend in the SEC as No. 7 Georgia scored a mild upset of No. 2 Alabama on the road and No. 5 Texas was stunned by No. 27 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. 

No. 20 Kentucky went for two in overtime and actually converted to knock off No. 9 LSU. No. 19 Missouri also upset No. 35 Florida. 

When the dust settled, my computer remained convinced that Alabama is slightly better than Georgia. It gives the Crimson Tide a 33% to 24% advantage over the Bulldogs in overall conference title odds. Texas remains third at 13%.

After that, seven teams have between an 8% and 11% chance to reach the SEC title game, a 3% to 5% chance to win the conference, and a 13% to 40% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Missouri, idle No. 15 Mississippi State, and Kentucky have the best odds among that septet, which also includes LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss.

It was a bit quieter in the Big 12. Five teams had the week off and the only upset was No. 18 Houston taking care of No. 63 Kansas State on the road.

No. 10 Utah easily beat and covered against No. 56 Kansas to maintain first place on my Big 12 leaderboard with 33% odds to win the conference.

Idle No. 13 Texas Tech (23%) held steady in second place, but No. 21 BYU (16%) significantly narrowed the gap after a convincing win over No. 53 Iowa State.

No. 18 Houston (10%) was able to leapfrog into fourth place over idle No. 30 Baylor (8%) thanks to the upset win over Kansas State.

In the ACC, idle No. 4 Miami watched the double-decker bus crash unfold around it, as potential contenders No. 34 Duke and No. 26 Pittsburgh absorbed upset losses to No. 74 Georgia Tech and No. 14 North Carolina, respectively.

As a result, Miami (56%) now holds a commanding advantage, with North Carolina (14%) emerging as the strongest overall challenger. That said, No. 23 Wake Forest (11%) has the best odds to face Miami in the ACC title game. The Demon Deacons earned a convincing win over No. 90 N.C. State.

Table 5 introduces a new data set: my updated College Football Playoff ranking projections. I use a simple algorithm that combines each team's power ranking with my calculated strength-of-resume metric to project the final playoff standings.

Table 5:Projected final College Football Playoff rankings, including current and projected power rankings and strength of resume, assuming every projected favorite wins its remaining games.

The table shows each team's current estimated playoff ranking and strength of resume, along with the projected values if every favorite wins out. The 12 projected playoff teams are shaded a slightly darker orange.

My computer currently ranks Notre Dame No. 1 and projects the Fighting Irish to run the table and finish 12-0. The SEC places four teams in the field: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, and LSU.

The Big Ten gets three teams in this scenario: Indiana, Ohio State, and UCLA. The Big 12 lands Texas Tech and Utah in the field, while Miami is the ACC's sole representative.

In this analysis, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Wake Forest, and BYU are the last four teams left out.

This projection sends six undefeated teams into Championship Week, which is highly unlikely. My analysis suggests that only two or three teams are expected to complete the regular season unbeaten.

The projection also places a 9-3 LSU team in the field ahead of several 10-2 Power Four teams. The Tigers' strength of schedule, and therefore their strength of resume, would be the deciding factor.

In the Group of Six, No. 29 Boise State is projected to be the final team to qualify, earning the No. 12 seed. The Broncos lead my Group of Six standings with a 35% chance to make the playoff.

Table 6 shows the full Group of Six leaderboard.

Table 6: Group of Six leaderboard after Week 6.

Boise State won at No. 64 Fresno State this weekend and reclaimed the top spot, thanks largely to No. 66 UNLV's upset of No. 32 North Dakota State. The loss dropped the Bison to fourth place, with just an 8% chance to make the College Football Playoff.

No. 48 James Madison (19%) escaped against No. 69 Georgia Southern in Sun Belt action and has emerged as the most likely spoiler.

Another team to watch is No. 31 Oregon State (10%). The Beavers moved into third place on the leaderboard after demolishing No. 118 San Diego State.

Oregon State lost to Houston and Texas Tech in Weeks 1 and 2. If the Beavers can run the table, including a Nov. 14 win at Boise State, they could stake a claim to the final playoff spot.

No. 49 Memphis also is worth watching. The Tigers are 5-1 and have the best odds to win the American Conference (31%). Still, their lone loss was an 18-point defeat at Boise State, which likely explains their fifth-place position and 6% chance to make the playoff.

Against all odds, we have reached the end for today. It is once again time for me to take a bow. Stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis and a fresh batch of Bad Betting Advice right around the corner.

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