Against All Odds, 2026 Week 7: Horseshoes and hand grenades

Another week, another heartbreaking loss at Spartan Stadium. The path was a little different, but the result was all too familiar.

A week ago, Michigan State stumbled out of the gate against Illinois. The Spartans roared back in the second half to force overtime, only to fall one play short of victory.

This week, against a stronger Northwestern team, the Spartans stood toe-to-toe with their ranked opponent throughout the game, even holding an 8-point lead deep into the fourth quarter.

The Wildcats nearly gift-wrapped a win for the Spartans with a baffling decision to fake a punt deep in their own territory with 3:29 left in a tie game.

But a blocked field goal and a 60-second drive orchestrated by former Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles sealed the Spartans' fate.

Michigan State was again “this close” to a statement victory, yet so far away. As the old saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The Spartans have been anything but lucky, and another once-promising season feels blown to smithereens as the Green and White fall to 2-5.

Still, this loss felt different. I fully expected a blowout. Keeping the margin under 10 points seemed like the only reasonable goal.

Despite entering with a four-game losing streak, the Spartans played with energy and grit. They held their own against a ranked team and looked like they belonged. They fought. They competed. They almost won. Almost.

The problem is that near misses have become all too familiar. “Close, but no cigar” could have been the mantra of the Jonathan Smith era.

This year, the coach and the attitude have changed, but the Spartans are still searching for a way to turn near misses into wins. The Spartans appear headed for their fifth consecutive losing season. That has happened only once before in 129 seasons of Michigan State football, from 1979 to 1983.

Where do we go from here? Some would point to recent Michigan State availability reports that rival an average CVS receipt in length. They would also note that Pat Fitzgerald had to rebuild the roster quickly through the transfer portal with limited NIL funding.

That camp would cite the fight shown in the last two losses and argue that the Spartans' luck should turn, especially once Fitzgerald establishes a recruiting foundation under a more stable athletic department.

Others are ready to blow everything up. They point to Fitzgerald's weak finish at Northwestern, his time away from the game, and other first-year coaches whose teams are already ranked and competing atop their leagues.

As for me, I am not sure what to think. Waiting for the horseshoe to turn right-side up is painful, but blowing up the program offers no guarantee of better luck. I still think giving Fitzgerald time to rebuild is the best course. But I understand the frustration and criticism.

After all, close is just another way of saying not good enough, at least for now.

Week 7 Betting Results

Let’s review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read it, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 7 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Eleven teams overachieved in Week 7, including Wake Forest, Ole Miss, LSU, James Madison, Texas Tech, and Toledo.

For the third straight week, every significant underachiever lost outright.

After a quiet start to the season, each of the last three weeks has produced 19 or 20 upsets relative to the opening spread.

Table 1 summarizes the 20 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks

Table 1: Week 7 upsets based on the opening spread, compared with last week’s upset projections.

The week’s biggest upsets were Charlotte (+23.5) over Temple, Auburn (+18.5) over Georgia, BYU (+12.5) over Notre Dame, Florida (+9.5) over Texas, Tulane (+7) over Memphis, Boston College (+7) over Pittsburgh, Kentucky (+6.5) over Oklahoma, Tennessee (+6.5) over Alabama, TCU (+6.5) over Baylor, and North Carolina (+3) over Duke.

My algorithm went 3-6 (33%) on upset picks, bringing its year-to-date record to 27-39 (41%).

FPI went 1-2 (33%), bringing its season tally to 13-16 (45%). SP+ finished 2-1 (67%) for an overall record of 12-16 (43%).

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 7 picks against the opening spread.

For the first time ever, all three computers were perfect on the highlighted picks. My machine went 1-0, while FPI and SP+ each finished 3-0. For once, every horseshoe found its mark.

For the year, my algorithm is 21-18 (54%) on curated picks. My recommended FPI picks are 25-26 (49%), and my SP+ selections are 26-18 (59%).

Across the full schedule, my machine went 27-35 (44%) this week and is 250-260 (49%) overall. FPI finished 28-34 (45%) for the week and is 257-253 (50.4%) overall. SP+ went 30-32 (48%), bringing its tally to 269-241 (53%).

Table 3 shows the Week 7 point-total results..

Table 3: : Results of the recommended Week 7 point-total wagers..

My computer split its two picks (1-1, 50%), bringing its curated record to 29-23 (56%). SP+ remains 7-4 (64%) on a very small sample size.

My computer went 27-32 (46%) on the full schedule of point-total picks this week, while SP+ finished 29-30 (49%). Year to date, my computer is 213-227 (48%) across all games, and SP+ is slightly better at 215-225 (49%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 7, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 7.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 7.

It was a relatively calm weekend in Big Ten country. The two upsets involved teams near the bottom of the standings.

No. 73 Washington (+2.5) picked up its first Power Four win of the year at No. 52 Purdue. No. 98 Rutgers (+4) also won on the road at No. 84 Maryland. Now, none of the conference’s bottom seven teams, a group that also includes No. 78 Minnesota, No. 55 Illinois, and No. 68 Michigan State, are projected to reach a bowl game.

At the top of the standings, No. 3 Ohio State tiptoed past No. 5 Indiana, thanks in large part to former Spartan Nick Marsh's poor sideline awareness.

Out West, No. 6 UCLA took care of No. 23 Wisconsin, while No. 19 Oregon narrowly escaped No. 15 Nebraska.

Meanwhile, in a matchup of teams seeking their first conference win, the No. 57 Michigan Wolverines finally discovered that they have other quarterbacks on their roster and used that knowledge to beat No. 35 Penn State.

As the dust settles, UCLA (70%) and Ohio State (67%) are the favorites to reach the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes lead UCLA in the odds to win the league, 38% to 31%.

Indiana looks like the only realistic spoiler. The Hoosiers have a 31% chance to sneak into the Big Ten championship game and a 16% chance to win the league.

Both UCLA and Indiana have slightly better than a 50-50 chance to run the table through the rest of the regular season. Ohio State has only a 31% chance to finish 11-1.

No other team has more than a 5% chance to win the Big Ten. Oregon (4.7%), No. 13 Northwestern (4.2%), No. 20 Iowa (2.6%), Wisconsin (2.0%), and No. 34 USC (1.0%) are the only other teams with at least a 1% chance.

Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans

The loss to Northwestern has left the Spartans in a deep crater in their pursuit of six wins and bowl eligibility. Michigan State must win four of its final five games to get there.

My simulation puts the Spartans' expected win total at 3.93, with just a 9.5% chance to reach six wins. Their chances of any postseason berth beyond a bowl game have dropped to zero in the model.

Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for the Spartans' five remaining games, alongside the preseason projections and last week’s values.

Figure 2: Updated win probabilities and spread projections for the Spartans' remaining games after Week 7 of the 2026 season, based on a 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation. Preseason projections and last week’s values are shown for comparison.

All five of the Spartans' remaining opponents won Saturday, leaving the stretch run looking slightly tougher.

My computer still projects a blowout loss at UCLA, favoring the Bruins by 19.5 points at the Rose Bowl. The opening line favored UCLA by 14, offering a small morsel of good news. If the Spartans lose in Pasadena as expected, they will need to run the table to reach six wins.

The post-Halloween clash in Ann Arbor still looks winnable, with my computer favoring Michigan by 4.5 points. It also has the Spartans favored by 3 at home against Washington and by 3.5 at Rutgers. Those two projected spreads have tightened noticeably in recent weeks.

The swing game in this five-game stretch could be the home matchup against Oregon, which my computer favors by 9 points. The Spartans' chances have slipped in recent weeks as the Ducks have stabilized as a likely top-20 team.

Beating Oregon looks increasingly difficult, but rest and the Ducks' jet lag could give the Spartans a small edge.

Who knows? Maybe the horseshoe will finally land in the Spartans' favor.

National Overview

Let’s take a quick spin around the country, starting with my updated College Football Playoff projections in Table 6. Like last week’s version, it shows current and projected rankings and records for each team. 

Table 5: Projected final College Football Playoff rankings, including current and projected power rankings and strength of resume, assuming every projected favorite wins its remaining games.

The Buckeyes' win over Indiana moved Ohio State atop my projected playoff leaderboard. My computer expects the Buckeyes to finish with the No. 1 strength of resume despite their Week 2 loss at Texas.

UCLA is the only other Big Ten team I project to make the College Football Playoff, as the No. 7 seed. Indiana is the last team out.

LSU jumped to No. 2 in both my power rankings and playoff projections after a dominant shutout win over No. 47 Mississippi State.

The Tigers are joined in the projected field by SEC peers No. 8 Ole Miss, No. 10 Tennessee, and No. 18 Kentucky.

Ole Miss dominated Missouri, while the Volunteers and Wildcats helped trigger a wave of upsets that sent shrapnel through the SEC’s upper tier.

Kentucky upset No. 38 Oklahoma on the road, while Tennessee took out former front-runner No. 7 Alabama in Knoxville. No. 27 Auburn also knocked off No. 11 Georgia in Athens, and No. 25 Florida upset No. 9 Texas in Austin.

With the smoke cleared, my computer gives Ole Miss (22%) the best odds to win the SEC, followed by LSU (18%), Georgia (16%), Tennessee (14%), and Kentucky (13%). No other team has more than a 6% chance.

Currently, Texas, Georgia, and Alabama all project to miss the playoff field.

No. 1 Notre Dame is my projected No. 3 playoff seed. The Fighting Irish were caught in the weekend’s upset blast at No. 17 BYU but retained the top spot in my power rankings. My computer still gives Notre Dame an 85% chance to make the playoff, though a home loss to Miami on Nov. 7 could put the Irish at risk.

BYU got a noticeable boost from beating the Irish. The Cougars now top my Big 12 leaderboard with a 27.5% chance to win the conference and project as the No. 11 playoff seed.

In general, the Big 12 looks more like a three-team race, with No. 14 Utah (26%) and No. 22 Texas Tech (19%) also in contention for the conference title. Utah barely escaped No. 91 Colorado, while Texas Tech blew out No. 80 Arizona State. I project all three contenders to make the playoff, with the Utes seeded fifth and the Red Raiders 10th.

But do not sleep on No. 24 Houston. The Cougars still have a 12% chance to win the conference after a closer-than-expected victory over Oklahoma State.

No. 4 Miami remains the only ACC team projected to make the playoff. The Hurricanes needed overtime to slip past in-state rival No. 36 Florida State.

Miami still has a 52% chance to win the ACC. Its most realistic challengers remain No. 12 North Carolina (18.5%) and No. 16 Wake Forest (16%).

The Tar Heels pulled off a mild road upset at No. 29 Duke, while the Demon Deacons beat No. 72 Georgia Tech by double digits.

In Group of Six action, Table 7 shows the teams with the best odds to earn an automatic College Football Playoff berth.

Table 6: Group of Six leaderboard after Week 7.

No. 26 Boise State held the top spot with a 35% chance to earn the No. 12 playoff seed, despite having the week off.

But No. 42 James Madison (33%) is close on the Broncos' heels after a 27-point win over Georgia State gave the Dukes a commanding lead in the Sun Belt East Division. If they run the table, the College Football Playoff selection committee could face an interesting debate.

The remaining contenders are hoping for a lucky break in the form of unexpected losses by both Boise State and James Madison.

No. 32 North Dakota State (7%) has the next-best odds, despite failing to cover in a win over No. 101 Nevada.

No. 59 Louisiana Tech (4.6%) and No. 44 Oregon State (4.5%) remain in the mix if they run the table and win the Sun Belt and Pac-12, respectively.

Against all odds, through lucky bounces and a little pyrotechnic mayhem, we are now very close to the end. Enjoy the games, and stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis and the next installment of Bad Betting Advice, coming soon.

Check out the official article on Spartans Illustrated here:

https://spartansillustrated.com/articles/michigan-state-football-northwestern-loss-2026-week-7