Against All Odds, 2026, Week 8: String Theory

College football head coaches often invoke a familiar theory in times of crisis. It surfaced repeatedly during the press conference following Michigan State’s 28-10 loss at UCLA.

In coachspeak, it’s called “next man up.” I propose an alternative name: string theory.

The theory goes something like this: If an injury keeps a player from suiting up, the second-, third-, or fourth-string replacement is expected to step in and perform to the same standard as the starter.

Admitting that moving down the depth chart might cause a drop-off in performance apparently violates some natural law.

In my experience, though, this version of string theory remains highly theoretical, with little experimental evidence to support it. Not all those strings vibrate at the same frequency.

At full strength, Michigan State likely would have been competitive in the Big Ten’s middle tier. The Spartans could have won six or seven games, reached a bowl, and demonstrated clear momentum for the program.

Instead, injuries first thinned the defense, particularly at cornerback and linebacker. Then starting running back Cam Edwards was lost for the season.

Just when the injury outlook seemed to be improving, starting quarterback Alessio Milivojevic and second-string running back Jaziun Patterson were ruled out against UCLA. With backup quarterback Cam Fancher also injured, third-string freshman Kayd Coffman moved into the starting role.

Once the game began, the hits kept coming. Most notably, star defensive tackle Ben Roberts went down on the Spartans’ first defensive play from scrimmage. He later returned to the sideline on crutches, leaving his return timetable uncertain.

Third-string running back Marvis Parrish left in the first half, thrusting fourth-string back Kenneth Williams into the primary ball-carrying role.

Toward the end of the game, safety Devin Vaught also suffered an injury after a potentially touchdown-saving tackle.

Is it really surprising that the Spartans couldn’t stay within two touchdowns of the nation’s No. 9 team on the road?

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald said all the right things afterward. 

"(I) thought we had a good plan coming in," he said. "We just didn't coach the guys well enough to execute for four quarters."

Later, though, Fitzgerald offered a glimpse of the practical limits of that theory. 

"There were a lot of times today on the headphones where it was like 'just call what we can execute,'" he said.

Does that sound like a situation in which the fourth string and the first string are interchangeable? Or has the coaching staff had to operate on a different wavelength?

At programs like Ohio State or Georgia, where third- and fourth-string players may be four-star prospects who simply lack experience, that expectation might be realistic.

For a program with a new head coach and less-than-elite name, image, and likeness resources, the equation looks different. Defensive end Kenny Soares Jr. summed it up most succinctly.

"It sucks, but that's the reality," he said.

Injuries aren’t a theory of everything that explains the Spartans’ 2-6 record, but they seem to rank first, second, and perhaps even third on the list. Unless Michigan State gets healthy soon, the rest of the season may follow a predictable trajectory.

No reinforcements are hiding in an unseen dimension, ready to turn things around. What you see is what you get, and it isn’t pretty.

That is not just a theory. It's reality.

Week 8 Betting Results

Let’s review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read it, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 8 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Nine teams significantly overachieved this week, including Arizona, SMU, UTSA, Oklahoma State, and LSU.

For the fourth straight week, every significant underachiever lost outright.

Week 8 produced another long string of upsets, 23 in all.

Table 1 summarizes those 23 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks.

Table 1: Week 8 upsets based on the opening spread, compared with last week’s upset projections.

The week’s biggest and most significant upsets were Louisiana Monroe (+17.5) over Troy, Illinois (+12.5) over Oregon, Cincinnati (+11.5) over Texas Tech, Syracuse (+9.5) over North Carolina, UCF (+7.5) over BYU, Minnesota (+5.5) over Iowa, South Carolina (+3) over Tennessee, and Wisconsin (+2.5) over USC.

My algorithm went 4-4 (50%) on upset picks, bringing its year-to-date record to 31-43 (42%).

FPI went 2-1 (67%), bringing its season tally to 15-17 (47%). SP+ finished 5-2 (71%) for an overall record of 17-18 (49%).

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted Week 8 picks against the opening spread.

SP+ supplied the only highlighted pick, which finished as a push against the opening spread.

For the season, my algorithm remains at 21-18 (54%) on curated picks. My recommended FPI picks stand at 25-26 (49%), and my SP+ selections are 26-19 (58%).

Across the full schedule, my machine had another tough week at 25-31 (45%) and is 275-291 (49%) overall. FPI finished 21-35 (37.5%) for the week and is 278-288 (49%) overall. SP+ went 26-30 (46%), bringing its season record to 295-271 (52%).

There were no officially recommended point-total bets for Week 8. 

My computer remains 29-23 (56%) for the season on curated point-total picks, while SP+ is 7-4 (64%).

On the full schedule, my computer went 25-31 (45%) on point-total picks, while SP+ finished 28-28 (50%). Year to date, my computer is 238-258 (48%) across all games, and SP+ is slightly better at 243-253 (49%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 8, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 3 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 4 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 8.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 8.

A string of three notable upsets shook the Big Ten: No. 46 Illinois (+12.5), No. 69 Minnesota (+5.5), and No. 14 Wisconsin (+2.5) beat No. 29 Oregon, No. 31 Iowa, and No. 48 USC, respectively. The home team won all three games.

Elsewhere, No. 5 Indiana survived its road test in Ann Arbor in overtime, and No. 12 Northwestern pummeled No. 92 Rutgers.

Wins by Indiana and No. 6 UCLA kept the Big Ten largely a three-team race. Ohio State (41%), UCLA (31%), and Indiana (21%) combine for a 93% chance of winning the conference.

Only Northwestern (3.9%) and Wisconsin (3.3%) also have better than a 1% chance to win the Big Ten. No team outside those five has more than a 1% chance even to reach the Big Ten championship game.

Ohio State (80%), UCLA (75%), Indiana (69%), Northwestern (26%), and Wisconsin (17%) are also the only Big Ten teams with more than a 4% chance to reach the College Football Playoff.

My simulation projects an average of 2.84 Big Ten playoff teams. There is a 41% chance that three are selected, a 29% chance that only two make it, and a 20% chance that four get in.

The upset wins put Illinois and Minnesota back in realistic contention for bowl berths. Illinois has a 60% chance to qualify, slightly ahead of Minnesota (57%). Both are close to No. 58 Michigan (61%).

Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans

The loss at UCLA dropped Michigan State to 2-6. A string of six straight defeats has left the Green and White with their backs against the wall. To reach six wins and secure bowl eligibility, the Spartans must win out.

Michigan State’s expected win total is 4.01, a slight improvement from last week. The Spartans’ chances of running the table are also a little better than you might think: just below 10%.

Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for the Spartans’ four remaining games, alongside the preseason projections and last week’s values.

Figure 2: Updated win probabilities and spread projections for the Spartans' remaining games after Week 7 of the 2026 season, based on a 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation. Preseason projections and last week’s values are shown for comparison.

The figure explains why the Spartans’ bowl hopes are still hanging by a string instead of a thread. My model still favors Michigan State against Washington (+4.5) and at Rutgers (+3.5).

The computer projects relatively narrow margins against Michigan State at Michigan (-3.5) and against Oregon (-5).

Although Michigan State did not cover at UCLA, it performed better than my computer expected. MSU climbed three spots to No. 65 in my latest power rankings.

Meanwhile, Michigan dropped, Oregon fell even further, Washington was idle, and Rutgers got blown out. All four remaining games consequently look a little easier after Week 8.

These calculations assume each team performs at its season-long average. To match that baseline, the Spartans likely need to get much healthier during the bye week.

To have a chance against Michigan, they’ll also need to score some points. Any points at all would be a necessary condition for success.

Both seem possible, but for now, the theory awaits experimental validation.

National Overview

Let’s take a quick spin around the country, starting with my updated College Football Playoff projections in Table 5. Like last week’s version, it shows current and projected rankings and records for each team.

Table 5: Projected final College Football Playoff rankings, including current and projected power rankings and strength of resume, assuming every projected favorite wins its remaining games.

Ohio State was idle but slipped to the No. 2 seed in this week’s projection. Fellow Big Ten members UCLA and Indiana landed at Nos. 7 and 8, respectively.

The Bruins held their position, while the Hoosiers entered the bracket after projecting as the last team out a week ago.

No. 2 LSU’s dominant win at No. 26 Auburn propelled the Tigers past Ohio State into the top seed.

Elsewhere in the SEC, No. 8 Alabama beat No. 34 Texas A&M, and No. 17 Kentucky defeated No. 78 Vanderbilt, as expected. No. 11 Tennessee wasn’t so fortunate, falling at No. 24 South Carolina.

In the biggest game of the weekend down south, No. 7 Texas held serve at home against No. 9 Mississippi.

By Sunday morning, No. 10 Georgia and Kentucky were the conference’s only remaining one-loss teams, while eight teams had exactly two losses. As November approaches, the SEC race remains wide open.

Six teams have at least a 5.5% chance to win the SEC, and my projection places five of them in the College Football Playoff: LSU (24% conference title odds, projected No. 1 seed), Georgia (19%, No. 10 seed), Mississippi (16%, No. 6 seed), Kentucky (14%, No. 5 seed), and Texas (5.6%, No. 9 seed).

My model gives Alabama a 7% chance to win the SEC, but the Crimson Tide are the last team out of my projected playoff field.

The SEC’s heavy presence in that projection owes much to a rough weekend for several Big 12 contenders.

No. 20 BYU and No. 28 Texas Tech suffered their first losses in upsets against No. 44 UCF and No. 55 Cincinnati, respectively. Meanwhile, No. 13 Utah handled No. 22 Houston to remain undefeated.

The Utes (33%) remain the Big 12 favorites, while BYU (19%) and Texas Tech (10%) slipped to third and fourth on my leaderboard, respectively.

A new contender emerged from a hidden dimension to claim second place: No. 19 Arizona (19%). The Wildcats climbed 14 spots in my rankings after a 36-point rout of No. 67 Iowa State. 

Amid the chaos, my updated projection sends only the eventual Big 12 champion to the playoff. Utah is the likeliest candidate, with a projected final playoff ranking of No. 13 that would give the Utes the No. 11 seed.

BYU dropped to No. 17 in the projected final playoff rankings, while Texas Tech sank to No. 38.

In the ACC, No. 4 Miami remained undefeated with a 29-point win over No. 36 Pittsburgh. I project the Hurricanes as the No. 4 playoff seed and give them a 61% chance to win the conference.

No. 18 North Carolina’s upset loss to No. 61 Syracuse dropped the Tar Heels to fourth on my ACC leaderboard, with a 5.4% chance to win the conference.

No. 15 Wake Forest (22%) improved its ACC title odds by six percentage points without playing. The Demon Deacons sit at No. 12 in my projected final playoff rankings, making them the second team out.

No. 40 SMU (6.6%) moved into third on the ACC leaderboard with a 6-1 record after a 39-point win over No. 90 California.

Notre Dame was idle but remains No. 1 in my power rankings. As last week, the Fighting Irish project as the No. 3 playoff seed.

In Group of Six action, Table 6 shows the teams with the best odds to earn an automatic College Football Playoff berth.

Table 6: Group of Six leaderboard after Week 8.

No. 23 Boise State easily dispatched No. 118 Washington State, giving the Broncos a commanding lead in the race for a playoff berth at 44%.

That separation grew thanks in part to No. 53 James Madison’s overtime upset loss to No. 105 Appalachian State and No. 39 North Dakota State’s loss at No. 52 New Mexico. 

New Mexico now has the third-best playoff odds (10.8%), just behind my computer’s new Sun Belt favorite, No. 42 Louisiana Tech (11.2%), which blanked No. 120 Old Dominion this weekend.

James Madison (8.5%) dropped to fifth on the Group of Six leaderboard, just below No. 75 UTSA (8.7%). The Roadrunners beat No. 100 Tulane in American Conference action, though my computer still favors No. 54 North Texas to win the conference.

Against all odds, we’ve reached the end of today’s analysis. Despite the Spartans’ less-than-optimal trip to California, I hope this provided a few good vibrations. Enjoy the bye week and the other games, and stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis and the next installment of Bad Betting Advice. Until then, let’s hope the Spartans can get their strings back in tune.

Check out the official article on Spartans Illustrated here:

https://spartansillustrated.com/articles/michigan-state-football-2026-week-8-string-theory