Against All Odds, 2026 Week 5: Misery

It was a miserable weekend for Michigan State football. After a promising start to the season offered a few glimmers of hope, the Spartans hit a patch of ice in the Wisconsin backwoods and ran off the road.

Michigan State’s 31-3 loss to Wisconsin was painful to watch, and the prospects for a quick recovery appear grim. After four straight seasons of disappointment, the start of Big Ten play has left fans feeling isolated and alone, trapped in the same bleak story.

To some, the program feels broken, with no escape from the bottom of the Big Ten standings in sight. Is this the fate awaiting Michigan State, or is there still a way out of this nightmare?

Despite the horror show unfolding before us, I believe some hope remains, and a few plot twists may still be in the works. Michigan State was soundly defeated in Madison, but a few plays breaking the other way could have made the game much more competitive.

What if Jacob Harris drops the bobbled touchdown pass on third down of Wisconsin’s opening possession? What if Michigan State converts even half of its fourth-down attempts in Wisconsin territory? It would not have taken much for the game to remain competitive deep into the second half.

As we will see below, there is also reason to believe the Spartans’ past three opponents are all better than expected. Pat Fitzgerald noted after the game that Notre Dame, Nebraska, and Wisconsin are a combined 14-1, with the Badgers’ loss to the Fighting Irish the lone blemish.

What if all three are top-15 teams? Based on their performance on the field so far, my computer says that is exactly where they belong.

Yes, the current situation is terrifying, but the Spartans must remain patient, work hard, persevere, and, most importantly, heal their wounds.

At full strength, Michigan State has enough talent to compete with at least the middle tier of the conference. The Spartans, however, are far from healthy.

If Michigan State is going to bring this dark, bowl-less chapter to an end, it needs key players such as Jordan Hall back on the field as soon as possible. If that happens, there is still time to break free from this misery.

If they cannot, the Spartans can at least take solace in knowing they are not the only Big Ten team in the state to start conference play 0-2. Unlike another team nearby, MSU did not begin the season ranked with Big Ten title or playoff expectations.

It may be cold comfort, but misery loves company.

Week 5 Betting Results

Let us review last week’s Bad Betting Advice, beginning with the overview in Figure 1. For an explanation of how to read the figure, see the Week 1 edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Week 5 results showing actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Ten teams overachieved in Week 5, including Wake Forest, Kansas, Memphis, Alabama, Arizona, and, unfortunately, Wisconsin.

No teams notably underachieved and still won, largely because every significant underachiever lost outright.

After four weeks with fewer upsets than expected, chaos came out of the shadows in Week 5, when 20 favored teams lost outright.

Table 1 summarizes the 20 upsets and compares them with last week’s picks. As we will see, the computers took a sledgehammer to the odds this week.

Table 1: Week 5 upsets based on the opening line, compared with last week’s upset projections.

The week’s biggest upsets were Purdue (+9.5) over Illinois, Minnesota (+6.5) over Michigan, NC State (+6) over Louisville, Temple (+6) over South Florida, Pittsburgh (+5.5) over Virginia Tech, Baylor (+4.5) over Arizona State, Missouri (+4.5) over Florida, Kentucky (+3.5) over South Carolina, Northwestern (+3.5) over Penn State, and Florida State (+3) over Virginia.

My algorithm finally had a good week, going an impressive 10-4 (71%) and lifting its year-to-date record to 18-26 (41%), much closer to its historical success rate of 43%.

FPI (7-0) and SP+ (4-0) were both perfect on upset picks this week. FPI is now 10-11 (48%) on upset picks for the year, and SP+ is 7-13 (35%).

Table 2 shows the computers’ results against the opening spread.

Table 2: : Results of the highlighted Week 5 picks against the opening spread.

The computers also displayed an uncanny ability to see the spreads clearly.

My computer went 6-3 (67%) on its recommended picks, bringing the year-to-date record to 17-17 (50%). FPI was 5-2 (71%), but its year-to-date record remains below .500 at 21-26 (45%). SP+ has had the best season in this category. It went 3-2 (60%) this week, improving its overall record to 22-17 (56%).

Across all 59 games, my algorithm went 31-28 (53.5%) ATS, identical to FPI’s record. Both algorithms are now 196-194 (50.3%) for the season.

SP+ had an excellent week, going 37-22 (63%) and improving its year-to-date record to 205-185 (53%).

Table 3 shows the Week 5 point-total results.

Table 3: Results of the recommended Week 5 point-total wagers.

The good picks are still shining through. My computer went 3-1 (75%), improving its year-to-date record to 28-22 (56%). SP+ went 1-1, bringing its season total to 7-4 (64%).

My computer went 30-26 (54%) on the full slate of total bets this week, while SP+ posted a dismal 20-36 (36%). Year to date, both computers remain below .500 across all games. My algorithm is 160-163 (49.5%), while SP+ is just 153-170 (47%).

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

After Week 5, I reran the full-season Monte Carlo simulation using updated power rankings and their current uncertainty. Table 4 shows the latest Big Ten odds, and Table 5 shows the conference’s updated win-distribution matrix.

All rankings beside team names refer to my computer’s power rankings, not either national poll.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule, and season odds after Week 5.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win-distribution matrix after Week 5.

Week 5 was a nightmare for Penn State, Michigan, and Illinois, all of which suffered unexpected losses.

Current favorites No. 4 Ohio State and No. 9 Indiana both won and covered, as did contender No. 13 Nebraska.

My updated Big Ten leaderboard shows six teams with at least a 3% chance to win the conference title. Ohio State (36%) remains the favorite, and idle No. 10 UCLA (16%) has edged ahead of Indiana (16%) by one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Wisconsin’s strong performance against the Spartans vaulted the Badgers to No. 11 in my power rankings and fourth place on the Big Ten leaderboard, with a 12% chance to win the title.

No. 13 Nebraska (8%) and No. 6 Northwestern (7.5%) round out my current top six.

In the preseason, Oregon, Penn State, USC, Michigan, and Washington were all ranked in the top 20, and all five appeared in the top seven of my preseason Big Ten leaderboard. Five weeks into the season, my analysis suggests none remain alive in the conference race.

Penn State is ranked No. 19 and could be favored in every remaining game, but two early conference losses may already be too many to reach Indianapolis.

Oregon is down to No. 30 in my power rankings, and my computer has the Ducks as underdogs in half of their remaining games.

No. 43 USC struggled to beat Washington and may only have one more winnable game left on the schedule. A final record of 6-6 is a very real possibility.

Michigan has dropped to No. 59 in my latest power rankings, and my simulation gives the Wolverines just a 42% chance to reach six wins.

No. 82 Washington is not expected to be favored in any of its remaining games. My computer has left the Huskies for dead.

Updated Season Prospects for the Spartans

The loss to Wisconsin was painful, but all is not lost. At 0-2 in conference play, Michigan State’s Big Ten title and playoff hopes are essentially gone, though not mathematically eliminated.

Michigan State, however, remains very much in the race for a bowl bid. My computer has the Spartans ranked No. 54 in the latest power poll, and their expected win total dipped only slightly to 5.13 after the loss to the Badgers.

That corresponds to a 40% chance of reaching the six wins needed for bowl eligibility. The odds of finishing 7-5 or better are 19%, while the odds of finishing 8-4 or better are 6%.

Figure 2 shows my computer’s updated point-spread projections and win probabilities for Michigan State’s remaining seven games, alongside the preseason projections and last week’s values for comparison.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State’s remaining games after Week 5 of the 2026 season, based on a 50,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation. Last week’s odds are shown for comparisone.

If the Spartans are going to turn things around, they likely need to beat No. 47 Illinois at home this week. The Fighting Illini are reeling after a home loss to lowly Purdue. My computer has the matchup as a near toss-up, while sportsbooks favor Illinois by a few points.

Michigan State essentially must beat Illinois to retain a realistic chance of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2021.

The bad news is that the two games after Illinois look increasingly challenging. My algorithm ranks both Northwestern and UCLA in its top 10. Even with projected spreads in the double digits, however, the math gives MSU a 30% chance to pull at least one upset in that pair.

After the bye week, opportunities remain to make a stand and resurrect the season.

Winning in Ann Arbor on Nov. 7 will be no easy task, but my computer currently ranks the Spartans five spots ahead of the Wolverines.

Michigan State is a projected favorite against Washington (+6.5) and at Rutgers (+9). Even the home game against Oregon (-4.5) is potentially winnable. Michigan State is not significantly worse than No. 46 Oklahoma State, which already slayed Oregon in Week 2.

Once again, a path to a bowl game exists. Michigan State needs to beat Illinois, defeat Washington and Rutgers, and steal an upset against Michigan or Oregon, or, less likely, Northwestern or UCLA.

Do not let the past two weeks haunt your judgment or erase the promise of the first three.

National Overview

Let’s take a quick spin around the country.

In the SEC, the most notable result was No. 36 Missouri’s home win against No. 27 Florida. The Gators tumbled 17 spots in my power rankings, and their conference title odds fell below 2%.

At the top of the leaderboard, No. 2 Alabama cruised past No. 17 Mississippi State, allowing the Crimson Tide to take over the top spot with a 45% chance to win the title. Idle No. 3 Texas (32%) is the most likely challenger.

The only other teams with at least a 5% chance to win the SEC are No. 8 LSU (7%), which beat McNeese State this weekend, and No. 15 Georgia (5%), which took care of No. 64 Vanderbilt. Neither team, however, covered the spread.

In the Big 12, No. 5 Utah was idle and remains the favorite to win the league at 42%. No. 14 Texas Tech (22%) finally covered in its win over No. 99 Colorado and remains the most likely team to face the Utes in the conference title game.

Three other teams are vying for the role of potential spoiler. No. 24 Baylor (10%) scored a huge upset victory on the road at No. 71 Arizona State to claim third place on the leaderboard.

No. 43 BYU (8%) avoided an upset at TCU, while No. 22 Houston (7%) defeated No. 40 UCF at home but failed to cover.

In ACC action, No. 7 Miami proved my computer wrong and easily handled No. 37 Clemson on the road. The Hurricanes remain the overwhelming favorite to win the conference crown (48%).

Three teams have roughly equal chances to face the Hurricanes in the ACC championship game. No. 26 Pittsburgh (11%) has emerged as the most likely contender after an upset win at No. 65 Virginia Tech.

No. 16 North Carolina (10%) performed better than expected against No. 1 Notre Dame and sits fourth on the ACC leaderboard, a fraction of a percentage point behind idle No. 25 Duke (10.5%).

Notably, No. 28 Virginia (4%) suffered a road loss at No. 29 Florida State, while No. 51 Louisville (0.1%) lost again, this time at NC State. Both teams are fading fast in the conference chase.

In Group of Six action, Table 6 updates the teams with the best odds to earn an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff.

Table 6: Group of Six leaderboard after Week 5.

The race for the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff appears to be down to three teams.

No. 18 North Dakota State (38%) shut out No. 134 Wyoming this weekend to reclaim first place on my Group of Six leaderboard from No. 33 Boise State (17.5%). The Broncos also won this week against No. 106 Utah State, but they failed to cover, which disappointed my computer.

No. 49 James Madison (10%) crushed No. 129 Marshall to remain undefeated as the most likely playoff contender from the Sun Belt.

Also notable, No. 67 South Florida (1.5%) suffered an upset loss at home to No. 75 Temple and likely played itself out of contention. UTSA (4%) and Memphis (3%) are the most likely playoff contenders from the American Conference, but both are long shots.

Against all odds, we have reached the final chapter. As Halloween approaches, keep an eye out for creepy clowns bearing balloons, haunted hotels, ancient vampires, possessed killer automobiles, rabid St. Bernards, other undead domesticated animals, and vengeful telekinetic teenagers. You can never be too careful these days.

Stay tuned to Spartans Illustrated for more analysis and the next installment of Bad Betting Advice, coming soon.

Article URL: https://spartansillustrated.com/articles/michigan-state-wisconsin-recap-week-5-betting-results