It would not be a stretch to suggest that Michigan State football is feeling a bit under the weather.
The Spartans felt good after beating a pair of MAC teams in early September. Then, the Green and White caught a case of the sniffles after staying out late on a Saturday night in South Bend. Their condition worsened over the next two weeks against Nebraska and Wisconsin.
The symptoms include the dropsies, a rash (of injuries), an acute turnover deficiency, frequent pocket collapses, and sudden weakness on fourth-down attempts.
This week, Michigan State returns home to face the Illinois Fighting Illini. The visitors are guests for the Spartans’ 2026 homecoming weekend, but they arrive with ill intentions. The question is whether Michigan State is on the road to recovery or whether the patient is about to take another turn for the worse.
Fortunately, this particular doctor is in, and I have a feeling the Fighting Illini might offer a cure for what ails the Spartans. A homecoming win would be chicken soup for the soul of the Michigan State program and settle the sour feeling in Spartans fans’ stomachs.
The Illini have not exactly enjoyed a clean bill of health, either. Illinois already has home losses to Duke and Purdue, plus a blowout road loss at Ohio State. The Illini's only wins came against UAB and FCS opponent Southern Illinois, both ranked below MSU’s weakest opponent to date, Eastern Michigan.
Furthermore, my analysis suggests that the Spartans’ past three opponents might be better than some so-called experts believe. Facing a team outside the top 15 in this good doctor’s power rankings could be just the remedy the Green and White need.
Perhaps a home-cooked meal, a few nights’ rest in their own beds, and a weaker opponent are just what the doctor ordered. A few players returning from injury would not hurt, either. But there is only one proven cure for what ails the Spartans: a homecoming win.
Will Michigan State Get a Win on Homecoming?
Michigan State and Illinois have met 49 times, with the Spartans holding a 27-20-2 series lead.
The series has gone through several cycles of remission and relapse since it began in 1955. The Fighting Illini held a narrow 5-3 edge through the mid-1960s. Beginning in 1965, the Spartans dominated the series, 8-2-1, through the end of the 1970s.
The Illini’s condition then improved dramatically, as Illinois went 9-3-1 over the next 15 years. Nick Saban’s arrival in East Lansing in 1995 shifted the momentum back to the Green and White. The Spartans posted a 12-1 record against the Fighting Illini from 1995 through 2013.
Since 2013, the teams have met only four times, and Illinois has won three of those matchups. That includes the most recent meeting, a 38-16 Illini victory in Champaign in 2024.
Since 2001, Michigan State has been favored in nine of the 11 meetings. The Spartans even scored an upset in one of the other two, winning by eight as a 16-point underdog in Champaign in 2022.
But the Fighting Illini have pulled three upsets over the Spartans in that span. The first was a massive win as a 26.5-point road underdog in 2006, a result that helped flatline the tenure of coach John L. Smith’s.
Illinois also upset Mark Dantonio’s terminally dysfunctional team as an 8.5-point underdog in 2016, then won as a 14.5-point road underdog in 2019. In that neon-clad fever dream, Michigan State led 28-3 before a Hail Mary at the end of the first half sparked a furious Illinois comeback.
This year’s matchup is different. For the first time since at least 2003, Michigan State is a home underdog against Illinois. The line opened with the Fighting Illini favored by three points, then moved slightly toward the Spartans at some sportsbooks.
Based on historical data, Michigan State has a 42% chance to spring the upset win on homecoming.
As noted above, the Michigan State-Illinois series has had its share of twists and turns. I expect the 2026 edition to be no different. Despite the odds and the sickly mood in East Lansing, my computer sensing the signs of recovery. Its diagnosis: Michigan State 26, Illinois 23.
The projected total of 49 points sits near the range posted by several sportsbooks. I would have taken the under on the opening total of 49.5, but that number appears to have dropped during the week.
As always, make sure to read the label on this bottle of advice carefully.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 6 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the computers’ projected margins.
The color scheme identifies which computers are picking each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.
Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold..
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| Table 1: Big Ten Week 6 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Each team’s color reflects the combination of computer predictions against the spread. Upset picks appear in italics, and recommended picks against the spread appear in bold. |
Ohio State (-35.5) and Northwestern (-34.5) are both huge favorites at home against Maryland and Ball State, respectively.
Three other Big Ten teams, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Rutgers, are convalescing at home during their bye weeks and should be safe from harm. That said, the Wolverines might still find a way to suffer another loss in the final seconds of the weekend.
Outside East Lansing, three other Big Ten games are unlikely to affect the conference race or national landscape. Minnesota (-4.5) travels to Purdue in what could be a bowl-eligibility elimination game.
Curiously, Washington (-2.5) is narrowly favored at home against Iowa. Both my computer and FPI offer the same diagnosis: Iowa is likely to pull the upset.
Almost as curious, USC (-1.5) is a slight road favorite at Penn State. All three computers prescribe a bet on Penn State against the spread, while FPI and my model offer an even more optimistic prognosis: a Nittany Lions upset.
The other two conference games could have significant consequences in the Big Ten and beyond. Oregon (-12.5) is a double-digit favorite over UCLA, but my computer is much higher on the Bruins than either Las Vegas or the other two systems.
I am predicting a UCLA upset. If it happens, the Bruins are a legitimate Big Ten contender. If it does not, Michigan State’s trip to Los Angeles in two weeks suddenly looks a bit more manageable.
Closer to home, Indiana (-9.5) travels to Nebraska in a battle of 5-0 teams. All three computers have the Cornhuskers covering the spread, but my computer has this game much closer to a toss-up. Once again, the winner in Lincoln gets to stay on the lead lap of the Big Ten race.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 summarizes the other notable Week 6 action across college football using the same format as Table 1.
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| Table 2: : Other notable Week 6 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Each team’s color reflects the combination of computer predictions against the spread. Upset picks appear in italics, and recommended picks against the spread appear in bold. |
The top game nationally this week features SEC contenders Georgia and Alabama (-1.5) in Tuscaloosa. FPI, SP+, and Las Vegas all see a close game, while my computer has been much more impressed with the Crimson Tide than with the Bulldogs. I have Alabama by three touchdowns.
In other notable SEC action, Texas (-10.5) is a double-digit favorite in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, while LSU (-10) carries a similar line on the road at Kentucky.
In Big 12 action, two of the primary contenders, Baylor and Texas Tech, have the weekend off.
Big 12 favorite Utah (-14.5) is a comfortable home favorite against Kansas. All three computers have the Utes covering.
BYU is undefeated but has been a little underwhelming through four wins. The Cougars are likely to earn win No. 5 this weekend against visiting Iowa State (+10.5).
Houston has the biggest challenge among the contenders this week. The Cougars (+2.5) are narrow road underdogs at Kansas State. My computer likes Houston to pull the upset.
ACC favorite Miami is also on vacation this weekend, but the Hurricanes’ three primary challengers all face stiff tests.
Duke (-6.5) goes on the road to face Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils are favored by less than a touchdown, but all three computers have Duke covering.
More significantly, Pittsburgh and North Carolina meet in what could be a conference race elimination game. The Panthers are 3.5-point favorites at home, but the three computers offer sharply different diagnoses. FPI and SP+ both have Pittsburgh winning, possibly by double digits. My computer offers a second opinion: a North Carolina upset.
In the race to become the highest-ranked Group of Six team and claim a spot in the College Football Playoff, the top three contenders all face major road hurdles this weekend.
Boise State (-8.5) travels to Fresno State in a game that all three computers forecast to be closer than expected.
North Dakota State (-2.5) travels to UNLV. My computer and SP+ predict a double-digit win by the Bison, but FPI has them on upset alert.
James Madison is currently the Sun Belt favorite. The Dukes (-9) are comfortable road favorites at Georgia Southern, but my computer suggests the game could come down to the wire.
Picks of the Week
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| Figure 1: My algorithm’s projected margins of victory compared with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 6. |
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| Table 3: Upset picks for Week 6. |
There are 16 upset picks on the board this week, and my algorithm contributes 13 of them. SP+ agrees with three of my selections and adds two more. FPI agrees with four and adds one unique pick.
My simulation suggests that the most likely outcome this week is 16.5 ± 3.3 upsets.
My computer’s most aggressive upset pick is UCLA (+12.5) over Oregon.
Other notable selections from at least one computer include Florida State (+6.5) over Louisville, Purdue (+4.5) over Minnesota, North Carolina (+3.5) over Pittsburgh, Michigan State (+3) over Illinois, Iowa (+2.5) over Washington, Houston (+2.5) over Kansas State, UNLV (+2.5) over North Dakota State, Penn State (+1.5) over USC, and Georgia (+1.5) over Alabama.
The games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines are the suggested bets against the spread. Table 4 summarizes those selections alongside comparable picks based on my analysis of FPI and SP+.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 6, listed by confidence score. |
Together, the computers prescribe just six picks against the spread. My computer offers four selections, one of which FPI also supports. My analysis of the SP+ data produces two additional unique picks.
Notable Week 6 selections include Notre Dame (-36.5) to cover against Stanford, UCLA (+12.5) against Oregon, Alabama (-1.5) against Georgia, and Pittsburgh (-3.5) against North Carolina.
Interestingly, neither my computer nor SP+ identified a point-total bet that met the criteria for an official recommendation. The over/under prescription pad is empty this week.
That is all the advice I have to offer. Remember: Never take Bad Betting Advice on an empty stomach. Get some rest, drink plenty of fluids, and enjoy the games. If needed, take two upsets and call me Monday morning. For now, the doctor is out.
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