Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 7: Somebody that I used to know

Breaking up is hard to do, but it is an experience almost everyone goes through at least once. In some cases, a very awkward situation can arise when someone happens to run into an ex in the cereal aisle at the grocery store or in line for a latte at a coffee shop.

On Saturday at Spartan Stadium, about 70,000 Michigan State fans may experience their own version of this awkwardness. One of their exes recently moved to suburban Chicago, but Spartan fans are about to encounter somebody that they used to know.

That somebody is Northwestern starting quarterback Aidan Chiles.

Chiles’ relationship with the Spartans lasted almost two years. Now and then, when I think of when he first announced his transfer to Michigan State, I remember how happy Spartan fans were. They told themselves that he was the right quarterback for East Lansing.

Chiles received plenty of love from Spartans fans at first, but the relationship slowly soured. He struggled with inconsistency, turnovers, and injuries. After he started eight games in 2025, the coaches decided they could no longer make sense of playing him. Michigan State decided it was time to see someone new at quarterback, turning to Alessio Milivojevic.

Many still wonder what might have been with Chiles. It was love, and it is an ache some still remember. Some Spartan fans can get addicted to a certain kind of sadness. Other Spartan fans were glad that it was over.

Since moving to Evanston, Chiles has found a new partner in Wildcats offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and the two appear to be enjoying a promising honeymoon. So far this season, Chiles has completed 71% of his passes, thrown nine touchdown passes, rushed for six scores, and avoided an interception.

It is nice to see that Chiles has landed on his feet and is thriving in his new relationship. When he and Michigan State parted ways, they promised they would still be friends. That promise, however, expires at kickoff Saturday.

Chiles is not the only somebody who might face an awkward moment Saturday afternoon. When Northwestern fans look across the field toward the home sideline, they are likely to recognize another somebody that they used to know.

Michigan State coach Pat Fitzgerald spent four years as a Northwestern linebacker, followed by 21 years on the coaching staff, including 17 as head coach.

In 2023, Fitzgerald and Northwestern had a very messy and public breakup. The parties settled in 2025, and Northwestern said there was no evidence of wrongdoing on Fitzgerald’s part.

It is hard to guess how Fitzgerald really feels about the matter. Now and then, he may think of all the times his alma mater screwed him over or had him believing it was something that he had done. At the very least, he likely believes Northwestern didn’t have to stoop so low. 

Either way, one former flame will get the last word this weekend. Maybe the Spartan Marching Band will even feature a xylophone solo at halftime to set the mood. Every awkward reunion deserves an appropriate soundtrack.

Can Michigan State Finally Get a Big Ten Win?

Michigan State and Northwestern have met 60 times, with the Spartans holding a 41-19 advantage based on on-field results.

The Wildcats won the first three meetings, played between 1905 and 1924. The teams did not meet again until 1959.

From 1959 through 2000, the Spartans dominated the series, going 32-9 against Northwestern.

Since 2001, however, the matchup has been far more competitive. Michigan State holds a 9-7 straight-up edge, while the teams are even at 8-8 against the spread.

Exactly half of those 16 games ended in upsets. Northwestern produced six of the eight, and all but one of the upsets occurred at Spartan Stadium.

Michigan State pulled the upset in the two most recent meetings, in 2020 and 2021. In 2020, the Spartans knocked off a ranked Northwestern team during the COVID-19 season. A year later, Kenneth Walker III announced his arrival in the Big Ten with 264 rushing yards and four touchdowns, including a score on the first play from scrimmage.

Michigan State has been favored in all but three meetings since 2001. This year, the Spartans opened as 9-point underdogs, and the line has since fallen to 7.5. The 2021 meeting was the only other time in the past 25 years that Michigan State entered this matchup as a home underdog.

Can the Spartans rekindle that magic and upset a ranked Wildcats team?

Unfortunately, I have serious doubts. As confident as I was that Michigan State would beat Illinois, I am even more certain that Northwestern will take care of business in East Lansing. After Illinois carved up the Spartans’ depleted secondary last weekend, the prospect of a Chip Kelly-coached offense led by a highly motivated Aidan Chiles is a frightening one.

The only thing that might stop Northwestern from scoring is the game clock at the end of each half. My computer is no more optimistic than I am. Its prediction is Northwestern 32, Michigan State 17.

I would love to be wrong, but I do not see the Spartans staying within two touchdowns of the Wildcats.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 7 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the projected margin from each computer.

The color scheme identifies which computers are picking each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.

Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.

Table 1: Big Ten Week 7 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Team colors reflect the computer selections against the spread. Upset picks appear in italics, and recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, and USC have byes this week. The Big Ten’s other 14 teams pair off in seven games, all of which project to be competitive.

The weekend’s marquee matchup is No. 4 Ohio State (-3.5) at No. 5 Indiana. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers sit atop my latest Big Ten odds leaderboard, so the winner will gain the inside track to the Big Ten Championship Game.

Las Vegas has Ohio State winning by about a field goal, but all three computers expect a tighter contest. My model gives Indiana the edge by a fraction of a point.

The teams ranked third and fourth on my leaderboard also meet this week when Wisconsin travels to Los Angeles to face UCLA (-3.5).

My computer and SP+ have the Bruins covering and winning by nearly a touchdown, but the machines did not get the memo that UCLA starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the season because of a knee injury suffered in last week’s upset of Oregon. If UCLA protects its home field, my model projects the Bruins as double-digit favorites in each of their final six games.

No. 12 Nebraska travels to No. 25 Oregon (-7) in a matchup between teams unlikely to reach the Big Ten Championship Game but still alive in the playoff race. All three computers have Nebraska covering, and for the second consecutive week, my model predicts a home upset loss for the Ducks.

Before the season, No. 33 Penn State at No. 58 Michigan (-6.5) looked like a game with Big Ten and playoff implications. With both teams struggling, the loser may instead be home for the holidays. My computer smells another upset in Ann Arbor, and all three systems pick the Nittany Lions to cover.

By contrast, No. 40 Purdue is enjoying a better-than-expected season and already has two Big Ten wins on its résumé. If the Boilermakers beat No. 86 Washington (+2.5) at home, they could be on a path to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2022.

Neither No. 70 Maryland nor No. 105 Rutgers is likely to reach six wins, but one will collect a Big Ten victory this weekend. Maryland is favored by 4 points at home.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 summarizes the other notable Week 7 action across college football in the same format as Table 1.

Table 2: Other notable Week 7 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Team colors reflect the computer selections against the spread. Upset picks appear in italics, and recommended picks against the spread appear in bold

My latest analysis of the SEC race identified three primary contenders and seven dark-horse candidates.

Among the contenders, No. 7 Georgia (-18.5) has the easiest date, hosting No. 38 Auburn. No. 5 Texas (-9.5) is favored to handle No. 35 Florida at home. No. 2 Alabama (-6.5) faces the toughest test, visiting one of the potential spoilers, No. 17 Tennessee.

The Bulldogs, Longhorns, and Crimson Tide must avoid an upset to stay on the lead lap in the conference race.

The other six dark-horse candidates pair off in three games that could thin the field quickly.

No. 9 LSU (-10.5) will try to rebound from last week’s road loss to Kentucky when it hosts No. 16 Mississippi State. No. 27 Oklahoma (-6.5) returns home seeking its second SEC victory against No. 20 Kentucky.

No. 28 Ole Miss (-6.5) is nearly a touchdown favorite at home against No. 19 Missouri. The computers do not predict an upset, but all three expect a closer game than the line suggests.

The losers of those three matchups will likely be left heartbroken and, for all practical purposes, out of the SEC title race.

In the Big 12, No. 10 Utah and No. 13 Texas Tech appear headed for a championship-game rendezvous, and neither should be seriously challenged this weekend. The Utes (-16.5) visit No. 98 Colorado, while the Red Raiders (-12.5) host No. 79 Arizona State.

No. 21 BYU is also undefeated and firmly in the Big 12 race. This week, the Cougars face their toughest opponent of the season when No. 1 Notre Dame (-12.5) visits Provo.

A BYU upset would shake up both the Big 12 and College Football Playoff races. For Notre Dame, this is the toughest road game left on the schedule and the only remaining matchup, aside from an early November date with Miami, in which the Fighting Irish project to be favored by fewer than 30 points.

No. 18 Houston is the other potential Big 12 spoiler. The Cougars (-5.5) host No. 44 Oklahoma State.

In the ACC, Miami is beginning to pull away from the field. The Hurricanes (-20.5) host Florida State and are not expected to face a serious challenge.

The more intriguing race is for the second spot in the conference title game. No. 23 Wake Forest currently has the best odds, but the Demon Deacons (-7.5) must survive a West Coast trip to California to hold that position.

No. 14 North Carolina is also in the mix. The Tar Heels are 3-point road underdogs against No. 34 Duke, but my computer only has eyes for the underdog and is picking North Carolina outright.

In the Group of Six, No. 29 Boise State leads the race for the final playoff spot and has the week off. The other contenders will try to avoid a damaging upset and remain in the picture.

No. 48 James Madison is 6-0 and the most likely challenger to the Broncos. The Dukes face their toughest conference test yet when they host No. 55 Georgia State (+11.5). My computer forecasts a tighter game than the line suggests.

The remaining Group of Six contenders are simply trying to keep the flame alive, but they are still worth monitoring.

In other Pac-12 action, No. 31 Oregon State (-17) will try to continue its recent dominance play as they face No. 123 Washington State.

In the Mountain West, No. 32 North Dakota State (-14.5) looks to rebound against No. 109 Nevada, while No. 51 New Mexico (-15) is expected to take care of business at Hawaii.

In the American Conference, No. 49 Memphis (-7) faces a tricky road date with No. 102 Tulane, and No. 73 UTSA (-6.5) has a matchup with No. 95 Navy.

Picks of the Week

The previous sections identified several potential upsets and the best bets against the spread. Figure 1 compares my computer’s Week 7 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines.

Figure 1: My algorithm’s projected margins of victory compared with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 7.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures appears in the Week 1 edition of Bad Betting Advice. This week’s upset picks are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Upset picks for Week 7.

There are 11 upsets on the board this week, including nine from my algorithm. They include Virginia (+7.5) over SMU, Nebraska (+7) over Oregon, Penn State (+6.5) over Michigan, Indiana (+3.5) over Ohio State, and North Carolina (+3) over Duke.

FPI and SP+ contribute three upset picks, including two not selected by my model. One of SP+’s unique choices is Washington (+2.5) over Purdue.

A simulation of the full Week 7 slate suggests that 17 ± 3.4 upsets is the most likely outcome.

The games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines are the suggested bets against the spread. Table 4 summarizes those selections alongside comparable picks based on my analysis of FPI and SP+.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 7, listed by confidence score.

My computer has only one pick on the board this week: FCS program Elon (+35.5) to cover against Stanford. FPI and SP+ each have two selections that trigger a recommended bet based on my analysis.

The notable picks are Texas Tech (-12.5) to cover against Arizona State and BYU (+12.5) to cover against Notre Dame.

Finally, Table 5 summarizes my computer’s recommended point-total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended Week 7 point-total bets.

My computer is back with just two recommended totals: Fresno State and San Diego State to combine for more than 44.5 points, and Kentucky and Oklahoma to exceed 43.5 points.

That is all the relationship advice, and all the other questionable guidance, I have to offer this week. I am resigned to the fact that this is the end. Enjoy the games, and stay tuned for more analysis early next week in Against All Odds.

Check out the official article here: https://spartansillustrated.com/articles/bad-betting-advice-2026-week-7-michigan-state-northwestern