Bad Betting Advice, 2026 Week 8: California Dreaming

Autumn has settled over Michigan, and the leaves are starting to turn brown. As for the Michigan State Spartans’ prospects, the sky has turned from blue to gray.

The supposedly friendly confines of Spartan Stadium have been anything but over the past month. Maybe it is time a change of scenery. Maybe it is time for a trip somewhere safe and warm. 

How about L.A.? California. That sounds nice.

Back in the summer, when Spartan fans still dreamed of a turnaround season, the late-October trip to face the UCLA Bruins at iconic Rose Bowl Stadium seemed challenging but winnable.

Five straight losses have made those summer dreams feel increasingly distant. UCLA’s 6-0 start and top 10 ranking make Michigan State’s task this week even more daunting.

For some Spartan fans, this meeting carries special meaning. As a college football fan growing up in the Midwest in the 1980s, Pasadena and the Rose Bowl had a special place my heart. Before the days of the College Football Playoff or even the Bowl Championship Series, the Rose Bowl was the end-all, be-all of Big Ten football.

Every Jan. 1 in my mama and papa’s house, we watched the Rose Parade, then the Granddaddy of Them All: the Rose Bowl Game. Getting there meant you were the best team in the Big Ten. Winning felt like claiming the national championship.

For years, we dreamed of Michigan State reaching this college football promised land. On Jan. 1, 1988, George Perles led the Green and White there and came home triumphant.

That year, my family considered making the trip to Pasadena, but my father decided that we would "just go the next time MSU makes it." Little did we know that we would have to wait 26 years.

But the day did come.

On Jan. 1, 2014, Mark Dantonio led the Spartans back to Pasadena and again returned home as Rose Bowl champions. Dreams were fulfilled once more. The Spartans were back among college football’s elite.

Those dreams are fading, but the Spartans are returning to Pasadena once again. Not as champions, just conference rivals visiting UCLA’s home stadium. At least for now.

UCLA’s long-term home remains the subject of a legal dispute with Pasadena and the Rose Bowl Operating Co. over its lease and a potential move to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. The Bruins have committed to the Rose Bowl for 2026, but their future there is unsettled

A UCLA departure would not necessarily end the Rose Bowl’s playoff role. The game is a College Football Playoff quarterfinal for the foreseeable future, but with no guaranteed Big Ten berth.

Even if Michigan State reaches the playoff quarterfinals someday, Pasadena is no sure thing. Bowl assignments depend on the bracket and the top seeds’ site selections. It makes me wonder whether this week’s visit could be the Spartans’ last in my lifetime. 

If this is Michigan State’s last Rose Bowl visit for a while, perhaps the Spartans can make it memorable. Pasadena is special, and maybe it has saved a little magic for the underdogs. After all, Michigan State is 4-1 all-time in this venerable venue, including two wins over the Bruins.

Maybe a road upset in the most famous college football stadium in the known universe will awaken a new era of Spartan football under Pat Fitzgerald. Maybe 10 years from now, fans will remember this trip to Pasadena as the spark that turned things around.

Maybe.

At least a boy can dream.

Will Michigan State Spring an Upset in Pasadena?

Michigan State and UCLA have played each other only seven times previously.

The Spartans defeated the Bruins in their first two Rose Bowl appearances, following the 1953 and 1955 seasons. Michigan State also won the schools’ third meeting, a regular-season game in East Lansing in 1965.

The teams met again in the Rose Bowl after the 1965 season, but UCLA upset the heavily favored No. 1 Spartans, handing them their only loss.

UCLA then swept a home-and-home series in 1973 and 1974. The teams did not meet again for 51 years, until last year’s game at Spartan Stadium. The Bruins arrived as 7.5-point underdogs but crushed the homecoming crowd’s dreams with a 38-13 win.

Many Spartan observers cite that loss as the turning point in coach Jonathan Smith’s tenure.

This time, the roles are reversed. UCLA is home, and the Bruins opened as 12.5-point favorites. The spread has since climbed to 14 points at many sportsbooks. Historically, that leaves Michigan State with just an 18% chance of an upset. 

Will that dream of a magical upset come true?

Unfortunately, my computer has issued a wake-up call. It projects something resembling a rerun of last season’s nightmare. My official score prediction is UCLA 36, Michigan State 13. 

That projection favors UCLA to cover and the over on current totals ranging from 44.5 to 47.5 points.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten’s Week 8 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and the projected margin from each computer.

The color scheme identifies which computers are picking each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.

Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.

Table 1: Big Ten Week 8 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Cell colors identify the models’ picks against the spread. Upset picks are italicized, and recommended picks against the spread are bold.

Six Big Ten teams get some rest this week: Maryland, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Washington.

With the Buckeyes dreaming of a return to the Big Ten Championship Game during their bye, Indiana (-8.5) at Michigan is the only matchup outside Pasadena with major implications for the conference title race. 

The Hoosiers have a strong chance to win in Ann Arbor for the first time since 1967 and keep their Big Ten title and playoff dreams alive. My model and FPI project a double-digit Indiana win, while SP+ puts the margin much closer to the opening spread.

The remaining four Big Ten games feature teams still chasing playoff berths. Northwestern has the best odds of that group (23%) and the easiest assignment, as the Wildcats (-15.5) host Rutgers.

My computer gives Oregon a 19% chance to make the playoff. Those odds should improve if the Ducks (-12.5) avoid an upset at Illinois. All three models favor the Fighting Illini to cover.

Iowa also has a 19% chance to make the playoff. The Hawkeyes (-5.5) face a tougher road test at Minnesota, but all three models favor Iowa to cover.

USC (8%) and Wisconsin (7%) have slimmer playoff hopes, but this week’s winner stays in the hunt. The Trojans (-2.5) are road favorites. FPI and SP+ project USC to cover, while my computer expects the Badgers to deliver a rude awakening with an upset.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 summarizes the other notable Week 8 action across college football in the same format as Table 1.

Table 2: Other notable Week 8 games, including my algorithm’s projected scores. Cell colors identify the models’ picks against the spread. Upset picks are italicized, and recommended picks against the spread are bold.

After last weekend’s SEC chaos, several teams still dream of a berth in the SEC Championship Game. My computer gives seven teams at least a 10% chance to get there.

None of those seven face each other this weekend. Georgia and Florida have byes, while the other five draw weaker conference opponents.

Alabama (-15.5) and Kentucky (-10) have the easiest paths, hosting Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, respectively.

LSU (-6.5) and Tennessee (-3) face tougher road tests at Auburn and South Carolina, respectively.

The most significant SEC matchup is likely Ole Miss (+3) at Texas. The Rebels are my computer’s current favorite to win the conference, with a 22% chance. Still, all three models expect Ole Miss to fall short of covering.

In the Big 12, contenders Texas Tech (-11.5) and BYU (-7.5) face potentially tricky road games at Cincinnati and UCF, respectively.

The biggest Big 12 matchup features Houston at Utah (-6.5). The Utes are second in my conference projections, and the Cougars are fourth. The loser will likely struggle to stay in the race.

Little drama is expected in the ACC, but no one can afford to sleepwalk through this week’s games. 

Front-runner Miami (-23.5) should breeze past Pittsburgh, while challenger North Carolina (-9.5) is heavily favored against Syracuse. All three models nevertheless favor Pittsburgh to cover, along with North Carolina.

Another leading ACC challenger, Wake Forest, has a bye.

Among the Group of Six, my two favorites, Boise State and James Madison, are favored on the road. The Broncos (-14) visit Washington State, while the Dukes (-10) travel to Appalachian State.

The most intriguing matchup is in the Mountain West, where New Mexico (-5.5) hosts North Dakota State. FPI and SP+ disagree on who will cover, while my computer picks the Bison to spring an upset.

Picks of the Week

The previous sections identified several potential upsets and the best bets against the spread. Figure 1 compares my computer’s Week 8 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines.

Figure 1: My algorithm’s projected margins of victory compared with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 8.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures appears in the Week 1 edition of Bad Betting Advice. 

This week’s upset picks are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Upset picks for Week 8.

The models flag 13 possible upsets this week. My computer picks eight, with FPI agreeing on three. SP+ picks seven, five of them unique to that model.

The most notable upset picks are North Dakota State (+5.5) over New Mexico, Tulane (+3.5) over UTSA, Wisconsin (+2.5) over USC, Duke (+2.5) over Virginia, Mississippi State (+2) over Oklahoma, and Virginia Tech (+1.5) over Clemson.

A simulation of the full Week 8 slate suggests that 17.0 ± 3.3 upsets is the most likely outcome.

Games in Figure 1 that fall outside either pair of dashed diagonal lines qualify as suggested picks against the spread. Table 4 lists those selections alongside comparable picks from my analysis of FPI and SP+.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 8, listed by confidence score

Only one selection meets my criteria for a recommended pick against the spread this week: Miami (Ohio) (-1) to cover against Central Michigan.

The computers are not asleep on the job. As the season produces more data, their projections increasingly resemble the Las Vegas lines. Smaller differences mean fewer recommended picks.

The models also hit snooze on formal point-total recommendations this week. Although my UCLA projection leans over, no game meets the recommendation threshold for either my model or SP+.

That is all my advice for this week. Despite these dark days for Michigan State football, keep the dream alive. Enjoy the games, and stay tuned for more analysis early next week in Against All Odds. Sweet dreams.

Check out the link to the article on Spartans Illustrated here:

https://spartansillustrated.com/articles/michigan-state-ucla-football-predictions-2026-week-8