The Michigan State Spartans spent much of the past two months on a hunt that kept coming up empty. They lost six straight games while wandering the forest, searching for consistency, crisp execution, and better health.
Meanwhile, Spartan fans were waiting for a sign of hope that better days were at least on the horizon and not just a careless memory of the past.
Last weekend, as dusk fell, the Spartan Dawgs finally got back in touch with the ground game. Then they broke from the crowd, burning the ground under the moonlight at the Big House.
The presumed hunters became the hunted, and the Spartans, hungry for something positive to finally happen, eked out a win over those carrion-eating weasels from Ann Arbor. The result was a mix of howling and whining from the two fan bases.
It certainly was not pretty. Some would say it was more discord than rhyme. But it got the job done, and the Spartans are still chasing six wins and a possible bowl trip over the holidays.
Michigan State is motivated and recharged, but another dogfight awaits this week, courtesy of a pack of wolf-like visitors from the Pacific Northwest. Their name is the Washington Huskies. The question is whether that hunger and energy will carry the Spartans to another win or whether the Green and White will get caught with a hangover or in a food coma.
From a big-picture perspective, the situation is eerily similar to last week. If Washington wins, the Huskies will be bowl eligible. If not, they could easily finish 5-7 with games remaining against Indiana and Oregon.
If the Spartans lose, they will be eliminated from postseason consideration, and the season will officially come undone. If Michigan State wins, the Spartans live to hunt another day.
Which team is going to come in hungrier? Now that they have the taste for blood, I have a feeling it just might be the team in Green and White.
So watch out, Huskies. The Spartans are on the hunt for the postseason, and they are after you.
Can Michigan State ride the momentum of last week?
Michigan State and Washington have met only five times, so there is not much boys-on-film history to study. The Huskies hold a 4-1 series lead.
The two schools split a home-and-home series in 1969 and 1970. The teams would not meet again until the Aloha Bowl in 1997, where the Huskies prevailed again.
Shortly before Washington joined the Big Ten, the two schools met in 2022 in Seattle and in 2023 in East Lansing. The Michael Penix Jr.-led Huskies gnawed on the Spartans like a chew toy in both contests, covering the spread and winning easily straight up each time.
Coming into the season, Washington was projected to be a top-25-caliber team, and this week's contest was supposed to be one of the more challenging games on the Big Ten schedule.
But the Huskies have struggled more than expected this year and are just 2-4 in conference play and 5-4 overall. My current power ranking has Washington at No. 48 overall, similar to the FPI ranking of No. 47. SP+ is more optimistic, ranking the Huskies No. 35.
Oddly, most of Washington's losses came in Seattle. Minnesota, Iowa, and most recently Penn State all flew in and stole the Huskies' Starbucks money. Washington also lost a close game on the road at USC.
However, the Huskies have been better on the road, winning at both Purdue and Nebraska in two of their last three games.
This week's game in East Lansing marks the third and final flight to the Midwest for Washington. Notably, the previous two trips bookended the Huskies' bye week. This time, they are making the long flight for the second time in three weeks, with a tough game against Penn State sandwiched in between.
Will the cumulative toll of travel catch up with the Huskies?
The Las Vegas line for this week's game opened with Washington as a 3.5-point road favorite, and so far that line is holding steady. That suggests the Spartans are the home dogs with a 40% chance to win straight up.
But my algorithm has a bit more appetite for an upset. Inspired (mathematically) by the Spartans' performance in Ann Arbor, it is officially calling for a win by the Green and White. The final score prediction is Michigan State 23, Washington 22.
That is so nice you can go ahead and say it twice. Feel free to call it "The Reflex."
Note that FPI also sees a very close game but still favors the Huskies by less than a point. SP+ projects a 9-point win for the visiting pack.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 summarizes the Big Ten's Week 11 schedule, including my projected scores, the opening spreads, and each computer's projected margin.
The color scheme shows which computers pick each team to cover. FPI is red, SP+ is blue, and my model is yellow. When two systems agree, the cell is purple, orange, or green. A black cell indicates a unanimous pick.
Upset picks appear in italics, while recommended picks against the spread appear in bold.
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| Table 1: Big Ten Week 11 games with my algorithm's projected scores and each model's pick against the spread.. |
Based on the spread, the Michigan State-Washington game is expected to be the most competitive on the Big Ten schedule this week. None of the other eight conference games has a spread under 7 points, as most of them feature teams at the top of the standings trying to protect their home turf.
Big Ten leaders UCLA and Indiana both face tricky but manageable challenges. The Bruins (-10) host Illinois, while the Hoosiers (-7) host USC. The computers favor the home teams to cover, except for FPI, which is betting on Illinois.
An upset by either Illinois or USC would carve out a narrow path to the Big Ten Championship Game for the Fighting Illini or Trojans. It would also open the door for the four other Big Ten teams with just two conference losses.
Oregon is in the best position to capitalize. The Ducks (-10.5) host Michigan this weekend and hope to hand the wounded Wolverines their second loss in a row. SP+ predicts that Michigan will cover, while FPI and my computer side with the Ducks.
Ohio State is also hoping to sneak back into the Big Ten race. The Buckeyes (-10.5) host a reeling Northwestern team that has lost two straight. All three computers favor Ohio State to cover.
Iowa is unlikely to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, but my algorithm is optimistic that the Hawkeyes could make an argument for a playoff bid if they run the table. Iowa (-16.5) hosts Purdue in a game not expected to be competitive. FPI leans toward the Boilermakers to cover, while my computer and SP+ back Iowa.
Wisconsin is a long shot for both a Big Ten title and a playoff spot. The Badgers (-7) are mostly playing for bowl positioning this week on the road at Maryland. A loss by the Terrapins would eliminate them from bowl consideration. The computers all smell a Wisconsin cover.
Penn State (-7.5) hosts Minnesota in a game featuring two 5-4 teams. The winner will become bowl eligible, while the loser will have to try again next week. The computers all back the Nittany Lions to cover.
Nebraska is also one win short of the six needed to qualify for a bowl. The Cornhuskers (-12.5) are expected to clear that hurdle this weekend at Rutgers. The computers all favor Nebraska to cover.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 summarizes the other notable Week 11 action across college football in the same format as Table 1.
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| Table 2: Other notable Week 11 games, shown in the same format as Table 1. |
Georgia and Alabama both feasted last week with huge victories and are starting to pull away in the SEC race, at least according to my simulation. Both are double-digit favorites, and all three computers expect each to cover. Alabama (-19.5) is on the road at Vanderbilt, and Georgia (-14.5) hosts Missouri.
The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are expected to run the table to close out the regular season. Georgia has just one conference loss and is therefore very likely (84% chance) to reach the SEC Championship Game. But Alabama has a pair of conference losses, and a multiteam tie for second place is quite possible.
Tennessee holds the head-to-head tiebreaker against Alabama and is the team most likely to take the Crimson Tide's seat at the SEC title game table. This week the Volunteers (-3) visit Texas A&M. FPI has the Aggies covering by a fraction of a point, while the other two machines back Tennessee.
Texas is also a member of the two-loss SEC club and holds the head-to-head win over Tennessee. But this week the Longhorns (+4.5) are road dogs at LSU. None of the computers is picking an upset, but all three have Texas covering the spread.
Kentucky is the other SEC team with two conference losses, but the Wildcats' losses came at the hands of Tennessee and Alabama, which leaves them in a weak position on tiebreakers. This week Kentucky (-2.5) hosts Florida. FPI likes the Gators to cover, while SP+ and my machine favor the Wildcats.
In Big 12 action, Utah is stalking a berth in the conference title game. But the Utes (-2.5) are narrow favorites on the road at Arizona. The computers all have the Utes winning and covering, but only by about one point.
If Utah does stumble, Texas Tech is currently in the best position to pounce. Still, the Red Raiders face a stiff road test this week at Oklahoma State (-2.5). Here, SP+ suggests a Texas Tech upset is in the cards, while FPI and my algorithm foresee the Cowboys getting the home win.
BYU is currently a full game out of second place and in a tie with Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. The Cougars (-7) host Baylor this week and will need a win to stay in the conference race. All three computers are betting on the Bears to cover.
In ACC action, Miami is a virtual lock to make the conference title game, and the Hurricanes are now trying to protect a possible first-round playoff bye. Miami (-14.5) hosts Duke, whose conference aspirations are fading. FPI likes Miami to cover, while SP+ and my computer expect a closer game.
The most likely other ACC Championship Game participant is Wake Forest. This week the Demon Deacons (-2.5) face a serious challenge on the road at SMU. The Mustangs could replace Wake Forest in the title game if they can pull the upset. In this case, SP+ is forecasting an SMU cover, while my computer and FPI are betting on Wake Forest.
In Group of Six action, the playoff spot is still Boise State's to lose. This week the Broncos (-9) host Oregon State in what could be the biggest challenge remaining on their regular-season schedule. The computers all favor Boise State to cover.
The other potential Group of Six spoilers face a lighter menu this week. New Mexico (-13.5) hosts UNLV, Louisiana Tech (-18.5) hosts Southern Miss, and Liberty (-20.5) hosts Middle Tennessee. The computers have the favored home teams covering in all three games, except for FPI, which picks Southern Miss to cover over Louisiana Tech.
The most interesting game on the Group of Six schedule is the American Athletic Conference clash featuring North Texas (-1.5) at UTSA. Neither team is likely to make the playoff, but both are hungry for a spot in the conference title game.
Picks of the Week
The previous sections served up several potential upsets and the best bets against the spread. Figure 1 compares my computer's Week 11 projections with the opening Las Vegas lines.
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| Figure 1: My algorithm's projected margins of victory compared with the opening Las Vegas lines for Week 11. |
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| Table 3: Upset picks for Week 11. |
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 11, listed by confidence score. |
There are nine picks against the spread this week, eight of them from SP+. My analysis of the FPI data yields three picks, only one of which is unique. My computer does not flag any.
The only Power Four game on the board is Nebraska (-12.5) to cover against Rutgers. Other notable picks include Louisiana (-11.5) to cover against UL Monroe, Liberty (-20.5) against Middle Tennessee, James Madison (-1.5) against UConn, and North Dakota State (-9) against Hawaii.
Finally, Table 5 summarizes the recommended point-total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended Week 11 point-total bets. |
Over the first five weeks of the season, my algorithm triggered a total of 48 recommended point-total bets. Over the same stretch, my analysis of SP+ produced just 11 recommended wagers.
Since Week 6, that script has flipped a bit. My computer has made only two picks in that span and has none this week. SP+ was also quiet until Week 9. Since then, it has made just three picks, and this week it suggests a total of four, all of which are to bet the under.
The most notable wager is to take the under on 72.5 points in the Texas Tech-Oklahoma State game.
That is all the advice I have to give this week. Here's hoping the computers have tracked down a few lucrative picks. Enjoy the games, and stay tuned for more analysis early next week in Against All Odds. Until then, stay hungry, Spartan fans.
Check out the link to the article on Spartans Illustrated here
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