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Showing posts from October, 2024

2024 Week Eight Preview: OK Computer

Playing the first game after a bye week is like waking up from a nap. It is a little tough to predict how the body will respond. If a nap comes at just the right time and lasts for just the right length of time, it can be very refreshing and rejuvenating. But sometimes waking up for a nap can be rough. It can cause a disorienting, groggy feeling like suddenly two plus two equals five and that down is the new up. Based on the way the three weeks prior to the bye week went, last week's break at the midpoint of the season came at exactly the right time for the Spartans. Facing one top five team is challenging enough. Facing two top five teams on consecutive weekends including almost 5,000 miles of travel is something else entirely. But how will the rested Spartans look on the field come Saturday night? It is hard to predict what we are going to get. It is the classic "rest versus rust," million dollar question.  I prefer to be optimistic and to believe that the Spartans will

2024 Week Seven Recap: Spoiler Alert

The Michigan State Spartans had a well deserved break from the action this week. I hope that they used this time wisely by resting up, watching some film, and getting ready for a late season push to earn a bowl bid. If they had a little extra time, I hope that they were able to knock out some other tasks such as cleaning out the refrigerator or catching up on some of their favorite streaming shows such that they don't accidentally learn how something ends. I hate it when that happens. While the Spartans were resting, 104 other FBS teams did take to the field of play and as a result, we are a little bit closer to understanding how the college football season will likely shake out. Let's dive right into this week's analysis. Week Seven Bad Betting Results Let's kick things off by checking in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can

2024 Week Seven Preview: Intermission

It is hard to believe that we are already halfway through the Michigan State Spartans' 2024 season. The Green and White currently sit at 3-3, having just lost two games straight to teams both ranked in the top three nationally.  Despite the current losing streak, Michigan State is actually slightly ahead of schedule. While the Spartans' schedule currently grades out to be harder than expected when I conducted the analysis this summer (by 0.7 games), Michigan State's current odds to go to a bowl game (46%) are 10 percentage points higher than what I projected.  In Week Seven, Michigan State has drawn a much needed bye. Think about it as an intermission of sorts. The Spartans' mission this weekend is to rest, heal, reflect on the first half of the season, and prepare for back half of the schedule with the goal of qualifying for the bowl game. Michigan State's team and staff may be taking it easy, but data and Vegas never sleep. Today's piece will focus more on the

2024 Week Six Recap: Trenched

It has been a tough last few weeks for Michigan State fans. After a surprising 3-0 start to the season, the Spartans have dropped the last three games to fall to a record of 3-3 at the mid-point of the season. The story of the last three loses was a little bit different. Against Boston College, the Spartans outplayed the Eagles, but turnovers and other mistakes cost the Green and White the game late. Against Ohio State, the Spartans played a solid first half, but once again mistakes cost the Spartans the chance to at least keep the game close. Friday night at Oregon, the Spartans lost in a way that was both surprising and a little disappointed. To make a long story short, Michigan State got beat up in trenches. At the beginning of the year, both the defensive and offensive lines for the Spartans were a question mark. Through the first five games of the season, both units and especially the defensive line were a pleasant surprise.  But on Friday night, the dam broke and it broke early.