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Showing posts from October, 2025

Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 10: Golden Opportunities

It is no secret that the last few weeks have been difficult for the Michigan State football program. After a promising 3-0 start, the Spartans have dropped five straight games, including last week's game against their bitter in-state rivals from Ann Arbor.  To add insult to injury, only the power four team that the Spartans have defeated, Boston College, is now 1-7 with exactly zero wins against FBS opponents. Michigan State needed overtime to beat the Eagles in Week Two. There have been a few bright spots for Michigan State despite the current streak of futility. The Spartans trailed USC by just a touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Spartans has a seven-point lead late in the third quarter at Nebraska. Michigan State played No. 2 Indiana close in the first half on the road. The Spartans even had several chances to get back into the game late against Michigan, despite an overall poor performance. There have been times throughout the first two-thirds of the season where each unit h...

Against All Odds, 2025 Week Nine: Inches

Former Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio used to say that football is a game of inches. On the occasion that Dantonio's teams did come short, he would often site a handful of plays or decisions that ultimately sealed him team's fate. This may have been a missed tackle, a failed fourth down conversion, or a poorly timed penalty. On Saturday, if Michigan State were to have a chance to upset the Michigan Wolverines, it was clear that the Spartans were going to need to find those inches. They were going to need to avoid mistakes and make the plays that mattered when they mattered. But just minutes into the game, it was clear that the Spartans were not going to find those inches. Play after play after play, Michigan State kept rolling snake eyes, starting with a fumble by Chiles that was inches from going out of bounds (or not) before being recovered by the Wolverines. As the game went on, there were catches that were just out of bounds (or not), spots that were inches short (or no...

Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Nine: Civil War

In a world fraught with conflict and uncertainty, two proud football teams will meet on the gridiron Saturday night to once again decide which University will get bragging rights for the next 12 months.  The winner will get a cool wooden statue of a lumberjack. The coach of the winning team will also get to enjoy a full week of not getting asked if he is getting fired. Probably. That's right. It's Michigan Week. That special time every fall in the Great Lakes State that pits neighbor against neighbor, brother against brother, green versus blue, Spartans versus Wolverines. It's an all-out civil war. But this year both teams find themselves dealing with different kinds of adversity. The Spartans (3-4) are struggling with their identify in the midst of a four-game losing streak and a three-year streak with no bowl game.  Meanwhile, the Wolverines' (5-2) unrealistic dreams for a Big Ten title and playoff berth are fading. Michigan continues to grapples with the challenges o...

Against All Odds, 2025 Week Eight: The Pursuit of Happiness

If I am being completely honest, I am confused by many of the thing that I have read and seen about Michigan State Football over the past few weeks. The results on the field have been frustrating and disappointing so far this season. But the sad truth is that the results are also not that surprising. In case you have forgotten, allow me to refresh your memory about some of the details from my preseason analysis back in August The experts in Las Vegas set the Spartans' regular win total over/under at 5.5 wins. My simulation of the full season gave a value of 5.26 win. Additional calculation revealed that Michigan State had a 43% chance to reach a bowl game.  The odds for a 3-9 record or worse were 21%. The odds for a 4-8 record or worse were 38%. After seven games, the expected win total was 3.66. These calculations tacitly assumed that the Spartans would have neutral luck both on the field and with injuries. It can be argued that a few teams on the Michigan State schedule including...