Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

A little over a week ago, I was seriously considering the odds that Michigan State could still sneak into the Big Ten race and a top four seed in both the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament if a few things broke just right. The Spartans were cooking and riding a high. A typical late February and March Tom Izzo run seemed imminent. Then, the loss to Iowa happened. That put a large dent in the confidence of Spartan fans, but I was confident that the team would bounce back with a strong effort against Ohio State. But, the exact opposite happened. Instead of sitting alone in third place with a solid shot at a Big Ten Tournament double bye, the Spartans have dropped to sixth place and are in danger of dropping even farther. Instead of things breaking just right, they have broken extremely bad. What went wrong and what comes next? Let's once again dig into the numbers to find out. As always, check out the Michigan State Basketball Odds and Stats Tracker the full set of data that will be discuss...

Earlier this week, I wrote in this space about how the Spartans still had a chance to win a regular season Big Ten title. Michigan State appeared to be rounding into typical late February form after two road wins against Penn State and Michigan. When I squinted hard enough at the Big Ten standings and schedule there was a path for the Spartans to wedge their way into a first place tie if everything broke just right. But that path was dependent on Michigan State running the table to close out the regular season. Before the electrons had even dried on my article, the Spartans laid an egg in Tuesday night's loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes. Following the game I wanted to deep six my analysis about as bad as Tom Izzo likely wanted to deep six the Iowa game film. What went wrong against Iowa and how much damage was done as a result? Let's dig deep into the numbers to learn more. As always, check out the odds and stats tracker for a full rundown of all the data that will be referenced below...

What a difference a few weeks can make. On Jan. 13, the Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team appeared to be dead in the water. The Spartans' has just returned home following back-to-back loses at Northwestern and at Illinois. Michigan State had a record of just 9-7 overall and 1-4 in conference play. Certain corners of the Spartan fanbase were ready to declare there was no chance that the NCAA Tournament streak would continue. All hope, it seemed, was lost. Despite the presence of a hall-of-fame coach on the bench, an easier schedule to close the season, and a mountain of data suggesting the team was better than the record indicated, fans were starting to panic. Fast forward to the wanning days of February, and the situation looks much different. The Spartans have won eight of the last 10 games, including three wins on the road. Michigan State has moved from the bottom of the Big Ten standings and into a tie for third place. A 26th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearanc...

Being a fan of the Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team can be an interesting ride. Sometimes you are up and sometimes you are down. This season in particular was felt like a ride on a old-school playground seesaw. It is fun at times but after a while it can make you a little nauseous. Over the past two weeks, the Spartans have experienced some ups and downs. After losing in Madison to the Wisconsin Badgers, Michigan State rallied to beat Michigan and Maryland at home. Spartans fans felt a little ill following the loss in Minneapolis, but are doing a lot better after Saturday's win over No. 10 Illinois. With almost 65% of the Big Ten season now complete, it is not to once again check in on where the Spartans stand in the Big Ten and what is to come. As always, check out the odds and stats tracker for (almost) daily updates on the complete set of data that will be discussed below. Current State of the Big Ten Race Table 1 below give the updated enhanced Big Ten standing...

Friday night's game in Madison presented a tremendous opportunity for the Michigan State Spartans men's basketball team. The Spartans were on a roll, having won three straight games and eight out of the last 10. A win over Wisconsin would have padded the Spartans' NCAA Tournament resume and allowed Michigan State to stay in the Big Ten race. Instead, the Spartans fell on their face, never led, and wound up losing by 15 points. What went wrong in the trip to America's Dairy Land and what does it mean for the future? Let's dig into the data and find out. Note that the full set of data (and details on how to read the figures) related to Michigan State and the Big Ten race can be found in the odds and data tracker. Today's analysis will highlight the key information and what it all means for the Spartans going forward. What Went Wrong At Wisconsin? The best place to start in the autopsy of a 15-point loss is with the four factors. Figure 1 below provides these data....

Back on Jan. 13 when the Michigan State Spartans were fresh off form the loss at Illinois, I issued the suggestion that it was not time to panic. Despite the fact that Michigan State was 1-4 in conference play, the schedule suggested that the Spartans had a great chance to make up ground over the next several weeks. Michigan State did not exactly dominate from wire-to-wire over the past three games, but the Spartans did notch three victories over Rutgers, Minnesota, and at Maryland to even the conference record at 4-4. As a result, the Michigan are currently holding steady in the Big Ten race. The past three wins have allowed the Spartans to hold and slightly improve their position. In today's update, we will look at that position in more detail. Also in this update, I would like to introduce one other change in format. Throughout the year, I have used this space to provide periodic updates on odds and stats related to the Big Ten race. But these data change on a daily basis, which...

Throughout the Big Ten basketball season. I have conducted an analysis on the results of a series simulations which provides various odds regarding the trajectory of the Michigan State men's basketball season and the Big Ten race as a whole.  In addition, I have provided additional analysis of Michigan State and the Big Ten race using Kenpom efficiency data compared to historical data and the set of statistics known as the "four factors of basketball success." As the season goes on, the data changes almost daily. This post is meant to be a one-stop shop for the most updated data on the Big Ten race. In addition, this post will contain a explanation of how to read each table or figure. Analysis of the data will be done elsewhere. This post contains "just the facts." Last Update: Jan. 22, 2024 Percentage of Big Ten games completed: 37.1% Enhanced Big Ten Schedule Table 1:  Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 22, 2024 Table 1 below is what I refer to as the enhan...