Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

As the world continues to fight and soldier on through the current tragedy and global crisis, we could all use a bit of a distraction. For me, it is therapeutic to think about a world without COVID-19 and in this world, the NCAA Tournament has reach the end of its second weekend.  For the last few weeks, as I hang out under lock-down at home with the fam in Michigan, I have been presenting the results of a single Monte Carlo simulation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament.  Here are the results of the Four Regional Final contests: Midwest Region No. 2 Michigan State downs No. 1 Kansas, 72-65 It was an epic battle in a game that many stated before hand might be the defacto National Title game. For two straight days, all the talk in the tournament was about MSU-Kansas and the game lived up to it billing. Both teams battled for 40 minutes and neither team led by more that 4 points for the first 38 minutes.  Kansas took the odd approach of focusing much of their defensive effort...

Let's be honest. The world is a pretty scary place right now.  While the real NCAA Tournament was, of course, cancelled, it is a fun distraction to think about what might have happened if the Tournament went ahead as planned.  Over the past few weeks, I have exploring a possible parallel universe where exactly that happened, using the results of a single Monte Carlo simulation. Under normal circumstances, the Sweet 16 would have played out over the last two days.  How would that have played out?  In at least one specific parallel universe, maybe it went something like this: Midwest Region Semifinals In action on Thursday in Indianapolis, the results were as follows: No. 2 Michigan State pulled away from No. 3 Villanova, 75-62 No. 1 Kansas beat No. 5 BYU, 71-66 As for the MSU game, perhaps the game went something like this:  MSU's starters struggled mightily from the field in the first half, and trailed early.  With MSU trailing by four at the und...

If the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct, there are an infinite number of universes without the with COVID-19 pandemic. In those universes, the NCAA Tournament just wrapped up its first weekend.  I have been using the results of a single Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament to see how one mathematically consistent version of the tournament might have played out.  Here are those results through the second round. Midwest Region: No. 1 Kansas beat No. 9 Marquette, 76-63 No. 5 BYU eliminated No. 4 Louisville, 70-67 No. 3 Villanova sent home No. 6 Iowa, 75-64 No. 2 Michigan State pummeled No. 10 Texas Tech, 77-61 (I also put together a simple box score generator, so perhaps the game went like this...) After their offensive struggles in the first round, Cassius Winston and Rocket Watts more than made up for it in the second round game against Texas Tech. Watts started hot and stayed that way, putting up a game-high 21 points on 9-of-13 shooti...

Somewhere out there in the multiverse, there is no COVID-19 and the NCAA Tournament started Thursday as scheduled and continued today to wrap up the first round.  I have been using the results of a single Monte Carlo simulation of the tournament to see how one mathematically consistent version of the tournament might have played out. Day One was fairly slow and only saw two upset in the 16 total games.  Was Friday's action a bit more Mad?  Let's start with action in Cleveland, where MSU finally took the court in the late game: No. 1 Dayton crushed Nicholls State, 80-60 No. 8 Providence handled No. 9 USC will relative ease, 78-62 No. 10 Texas Tech edged No. 7 Virginia, 65-63  No. 2 Michigan State surged late to beat No. 15 Ohio, 73-65 MSU got off to another slow start and didn't take the lead until the 5:00 minute mark of the second half.  The highly partisan Ohio crowd almost willed the Bobcats to victory.  But... MSU survived and advanced. In ot...

Somewhere out there in the multiverse, there is no COVID-19 and the NCAA Tournament started Thursday as scheduled.  Earlier in the week, I released a possible bracket that exists some subsets of the multiverse. Then, I proceeded to analyze that bracket, complete with upset, Final Four, and the eventual champion.  Today, it is time to take a look at how Day 1 might have gone down. My method for this fun little exercise was simply to pick one of the outcomes of my Monte Carlo simulations of the tournament.  I used a random number generator to make the picks using the Kenpom projected point spreads for each game.  In this way, the amount of Madness to this particular version of March should be reasonable. That said, how did the day shake out?  Let's actually start with action on Tuesday and Wednesday night in the First Four: On Tuesday, Nicholls State defeated Southern easily, 81-59 and will face Dayton on Friday in Cleveland. Xavier edged Richmond, ...

This are truly strange times that we are living in.  While the NCAA Tournament was officially cancelled, it is still fun to imagine what could have been had the world not been plunged into the current COVID-19 pandemic crisis.  Back on Selection Sunday, I presented an NCAA Tournament bracket that might have been close to the real one.  If parallel universes due, in fact, exist, then perhaps that tournament is actually playing out somewhere.  At least someone is having fun... Last year around this time, I developed a new analytical strategy for analyzing the NCAA Tournament bracket, and it did a very nice job in helping me make my picks.  I was looking forward to trying it out again on the 2020 bracket.  While the we don't have a real bracket to analyze, the "parallel universe" bracket is a reasonable substitute.  As a part of my own personal mourning process, I decided to also my new methodology to analyze the parallel universe bracket to see what co...

Somewhere out there, if the many-world interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct, it is still Selection Sunday.  Somewhere, all of the conference tournaments are now complete, including the Big Ten Tournament, which in the particular parallel universe that I am following finished with a final of: No 2. seed Michigan State defeats No. 9 seed Michigan 79-60 Much like the first game this year at Breslin, MSU dominated. Winston scored a game high 24 points and eight assists, with Tillman chipping in 18 points and 13 rebounds.  Rocket Watts had a strong performance as well, chipping in 12 points and four rebounds.  For the second year in a row, MSU wins both the regular season and conference Big Ten crowns. Just a few minutes after the Spartans finished cutting down the nets once again in Indy, the Selection Committee starts rolling out the brackets, starting with the Midwest, and No. 1 overall seed, Kansas. Similar to last year, MSU learns their fate almost ...

In the world of quantum physics, there is a theory that all possible outcomes of any measurement or event actually takes place in at least one universe. Every time a coin is flipped, in one universe it comes up heads, and it another newly created universe, it comes up tails.  As a result, if this interpretation of quantum mechanics is true, an infinite number of universes exist where all possible outcomes actually take place. In our particular universe, life kinda sucks right now.  A deadly pandemic virus is sweeping the globe, and as a result, one of our most beloved sports traditions, the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, has been cancelled.  For me, this feel like Christmas got cancelled, and we were forced to take all of our presents into the front yard and set them on fire. But, what if there is a universe out there where there is no COVID-19 virus? What if there is a universe where we are on the eve of Selection Sunday? Wouldn't it be fun just to take a peak int...

What a close to the regular season.  Just a few weeks ago, on February 17th, the math was suggesting that MSU had only a 4.0 percent chance of winning the regular season Big Ten title and Wisconsin had only a 1.4 percent chance.  But, both teams ended on a tear and (more significantly) Maryland ended in a slump, and as a result, it was a very happy weekend in both East Lansing and Madison. I could probably go on for paragraphs about the significance of the three-peat this year.  Back in the summer, I knew that this campaign was going to be a stressful, because they always are when expectations are so high.  It looked for a long time like this season was going to end with extreme disappointment.  But, Izzo worked his magic again, and now this team has a shot to be special and to achieve some more of those goals that were set back in April. I could certainly continue to wax poetic, but I am a numbers guy, so I will just give these numbers: In 25 years at MS...

Early in the evening on Tuesday night, it was clear that it was going to be a big night.  With MSU playing at Penn State and Maryland playing at Rutgers in the same time slot, the fate of the Big Ten regular season was very much in balance.  If MSU were to have lost and Maryland would have won, MSU would have needed a miracle to claim a share of the title.  Even if both MSU and Maryland had won, the Spartans would have been placed in the uncomfortable position of needing a Michigan win this weekend in order to hang a banner. Yuck. But, fortunately, none of those things came to pass. It looked a bit bleak at times, as MSU trailed by 19 points late in the first half at Penn State.  It was clear right away that Maryland was struggling on the road, and that made MSU’s big deficit even harder to swallow.  Was this how the regular season was going to end?  With Maryland tanking and MSU still not able to get the job done? No, fortunately, is was not. MSU s...